i f'ing love el nino

**here2day** · 01-14-2010, 08:21 PM

good times ahead in central and so. cal

from the mammy local dweeb team

LATEST DISCUSSION TODAY FROM HPC SAYS IT ALL......

ALONG THE WEST COAST THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 TO 4 SURGES COMING INTO THE WEST COAST IN THE FAST PACIFIC FLOW THIS PERIOD EACH WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO COME IN AROUND AT-SUN..MON..TUES AND ANOTHER THURS-FRI WITH MORE TO FOLLOW. MONDAYS SURGE HITS THE ENTIRE COAST FROM VANCOUVER SOUTH TO PT CONCEPTION BUT THEN AS THE HEIGHTS FALL AND THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE TARGET AREA WILL BE MORE INTO CENTRAL CA AND SOUTHERN CA TUESDAY ONWARD.

THIS EVENT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH OR RIVAL THE JANUARY/FEBRUARY 1998 EL NINO EVENT IN CENTRAL CA AND THE JANUARY 1995 TIME FRAME FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. QPF TOTALS FROM MODEL GUIDANCE ARE VERY HIGH WITH AN OVERALL RANGE OF 7-12 LIQUID INCHES DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD OVER COASTAL REGIONS/SIERRA. EXPECT CONSIDERABLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER A MULTIDAY PERIOD WITH 10-20 INCH MOUNTAIN AMOUNTS WITH EVEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SIERRA MOUNTAIN SNOWS MAY BE IN THE 8-12 FOOT RANGE. AS THE JET CORE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHERE SIMILAR RAINFALL NUMBERS MAYBE OVER ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE TERRAIN. SOME LOCAL FAVORED TERRAIN AREAS WILL MOST LIKELY APPROACH "20" INCH LIQUID AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE EVENT "CONTINUING PAST OUR 7 DAY RANGE", YIELDING EVEN HIGHER TOTALS. VERY HEAVY SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND A FLOODING/MUDSLIDE PROBLEMS APPEAR LIKELY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR ARIZONA APPEARS IN STORE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

THIS IS A "HIGH CONFIDENCE EVENT" WITH "PACIFIC RECONNAISSANCE REQUESTED".

**Gregger** · 01-14-2010, 10:19 PM

Fuck off.

At least someone is getting it. CO is not.

**concretejungle** · 01-14-2010, 10:35 PM

You'll only ski the top 3 inches anyway. It'll be bottomless.

I just told the wife I'd move to CA. God help me.

Edit: If Tech is right I'll see you at Taos. I need a fucking pow day.

**Tech Tonics** · 01-14-2010, 10:38 PM

come to daddy. I've been waiting for you.

**inbetweenstance** · 01-14-2010, 10:42 PM

very interesting...

**inthemtns** · 01-14-2010, 10:43 PM

What do you guys care about fresh snow? You just push it around with snow cats and build gaps. Are those that much more fun during your powder hour?

**noparking** · 01-15-2010, 12:51 AM

From those of us in Oregon I think I speak for all of us when I tell you to fuck off.

**el penoso** · 01-15-2010, 02:59 AM

Hey... we've been skunked for 5 years its our turn now

**powdork** · 01-15-2010, 03:33 AM

skunked how????
the last five years have been awesome.

and these upcoming storms will most likely bring short term problems, and long term suck.

**cdlv** · 01-15-2010, 07:27 AM

OH YEAH!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is what We've been waiting for all season.

**whipski** · 01-15-2010, 07:51 AM

Sittin CO I'm happy anytime a storm comes ashore in CA

**extreeski** · 01-15-2010, 08:03 AM

Boooooooooooooo!!!!

Okay, you guys in the SW enjoy your new snow.

**haydukelives** · 01-15-2010, 08:10 AM

Originally Posted by powdork

skunked how????
the last five years have been awesome.

and these upcoming storms will most likely bring short term problems, and long term suck.

powdork. could you please explain why the long term suck?
seems like 10+ ft makes the next part of the season great

**lionelhutz** · 01-15-2010, 08:48 AM

Very good storm train coming. At least 4 impulses with the system set to hig 1/20-1/22 looking to be the biggest of them all. Notably this isn't just going to be a tahoe event. Mammoth will get hammered as will the So. Cal mountains. Baldy def. in play as will be AZ snowbowl...(really).

**ectreeskier11** · 01-15-2010, 08:58 AM

i fucking hate that utah is getting screwed out of another storm. (for the most part)

**cdlv** · 01-15-2010, 09:09 AM

Originally Posted by lionelhutz

Very good storm train coming. At least 4 impulses with the system set to hig 1/20-1/22 looking to be the biggest of them all. Notably this isn't just going to be a tahoe event. Mammoth will get hammered as will the So. Cal mountains. Baldy def. in play as will be AZ snowbowl...(really).

expecting 4-6 feet over the week in our mountains

**Tech Tonics** · 01-15-2010, 09:17 AM

for the record, northern NM (including Taos) is in perfect location to get totally fucking dumped on. yippeee!

**powdork** · 01-15-2010, 09:32 AM

Originally Posted by haydukelives

powdork. could you please explain why the long term suck?
seems like 10+ ft makes the next part of the season great

from the tahoe conditions thread

when the dump means
1. you can't ski. nothing is open, roads are closed. avy danger is extreme. winds are blowing 100 mph in south lake tahoe. this is during the good part of the storm.
2. then it rains. to the top of the highest tahoe peaks. hard. for days and days.
3. it floods. roads are washed out and closed for the season. local businesses are forced to close.
4. people die.
well then it's not so much fun. it becomes more like an ordeal.

otoh, extreme weather phenomena is fun to be a part of so it makes up for the lack of riding in some respects.

**raisingarizona13** · 01-15-2010, 09:38 AM

We are stoked down here in Flagstaff too, this looks good!

**neckdeep** · 01-15-2010, 09:38 AM

Great forecast for Tetons is "Western WY sits just at the edge of remnant moisture"....whooopeeee more warm air and virga from Nevada!

**jmf** · 01-15-2010, 09:43 AM

Originally Posted by powdork

from the tahoe conditions thread

10' of snow is not a joke. You can't do anything with it. It takes days of perfect weather for emergency equipment to mobilize. I doubt they'll let a vehicle anywhere near the mountain just prior to a storm like this, as it'll be there for the rest of the season.

**lionelhutz** · 01-15-2010, 09:44 AM

Originally Posted by ectreeskier11

i fucking hate that utah is getting screwed out of another storm. (for the most part)

I'm going to have to disagree that UT is getting the screw job. Honestly, in the weather world that's "weenie" talk. You hear that from people who live in DC when Nor'easters bring rain and not snow. I'm going to call BS.

UT climatology- in particular that of the wasatch, shows that when large storms roll into Tahoe, the west facing slopes of the wasatch do very well. Particularly in west/southwest flow events as residual moisture flows across the deserts of NV and impacts the slopes of the wasatch. regardless of tahoe getting 10 feet or other ridic numbers, utah is still situated to do nicely. Look- will you get a 40 inch storm? Unlikey. Will you get 100 in 100 hours? Not likely either. However can you get a series of three to four 6-10 inch events in the span of 6 days? Sure can. Can you get get a cylce as follows: 4, 8, 12? You bet.
So if you are going to bitch about getting 20 of light fluff well then there's nothing that can be done to help you. You want 10 feet? Have fun. Enjoy tremendous avy danger, washed out roads, high winds, ruined damns and flooded sludge ponds.
(another jem of cali is that they built waste containment ponds for toxic waste that was only designed to hold rainwater from a "50 year" storm. Too bad the 50 year sample they used in the 1970's didn't include three heavy el nino events. Now when it rains hard they have to relase some of the waste into the creeks).

**ectreeskier11** · 01-15-2010, 09:56 AM

haha lionel i am merely saying that with our current snowpack, we need a solid 3-4 feet to really do anything fun, especially at the resorts. if it's blower, we'll need a lot more than that. i realize that 20 inches sounds pretty good, but with typical utah snow and the winter we have had (~50% average snowpack still) you will need to be skiing on a smooth base surface (as opposed to the beat up resorts) in order to enjoy it. now 10 feet in 5-7 days? yeah, that's a bit much, and I am not asking for that. but we are in serious need of snow!

**here2day** · 01-15-2010, 04:53 PM

more on the coming weather - cut from an e-mail recevied from reliable source

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Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.

This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).

In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.

In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned

**comish** · 01-15-2010, 05:24 PM

Hmm, This will definitely be interesting...

So, I have from Tuesday to next Sunday free. Was gonna go to Utah for work/skiing, but now am wondering if I'm insane for a variety of reasons.

A: Will I get there as the drive could be horrendous and the drive home worse
B: How much snow will Utah get out of this event? Worth it?
C: What will remain open in the Sierra's? Most of Mammoth will likely get shut. Will 395 even be open to get to June mtn? I have seen it disappear before during huge storms...
D: When will Baldy be able to get its lifts running? I'm thinking it will be a few days, but who knows...

So, what would you do if based in So. Cal. w/ time, car, and will to travel, but not a lot of cash money to spend???