Pine Beetle Kill

[iscariot]

Has anyone commenting in this thread actually studied forestry or NR? I'd like to hear an informed opinion.

I have...

The comments thus far are too retarded (with the exception of QuikR12, thanks for that*) to post the diatribe that is my stream of consciousness with regard to this topic.

Go read some scientific journal articles people.








*the journals I've read indicate the global climate change, in particular the current warming that's occurring, allows the pine beetle larvae to survive the winter cold weather kill-off that helped regulate the beetle population. Although, the research I've read also tends to agree with you, ie. global climate change may not be a primary effect, and forest management likely are. I think that both of the aforementioned processes reinforce the beetle population growth to a significant extent and have allowed for their territorial expansion.

[tommyvee]

The average fire return intervals in your average western lodgepole stand is very short, about 10 years. This means in a natural (not anthropogenically altered) stands, fire is expected to return and burn through an area once every 10 years...

This is exactly our local experience.

Boulder Mountain Parks cored trees to measure fire intervals and pre-European fire interval averaged about 13 years (across Ponderosa pine, fir, and lodgepole pine stands I think). After European arrival, the fire interval was not measurable, since most stands had all fires suppressed. Pre-Euro regular burns created a park-like forest, especially with widely spaced Ponderosa pines surrounded by grass/brush and protected by their corky bark.

One question that coring cannot answer is how many fires prior to Euro arrival were set by the local Utes. Fire was clearly used as hunting/land management tool, so the question of what is "natural" gets a little more complicated, but the ecosystem is clearly fire-adapted.

Now across Boulder County fuel loads are very high, and "dog-hair" lodgepole stands are common. Unfortunately, houses are mixed in somewhat randomly, so restoring a natural fire regime with regular burns that do not crown would require crazy expensive fuel-reduction and fire mitigation at the "wildlands interface" to protect the houses mixed in.

Personally, I expect that government will not spend the big money to do fuel reduction and preventive burns. But eventually wind-driven fire storms along the Front Range will likely convince people to follow more sustainable development patterns and construction techniques.

Nature bats last.

[shera]

Thats at least what I've learned, in my studies and experiences... Climatic changes may have an impact, but its the forest 'management' itself that is to blame.

Interesting. Thanks for educating me.

[karpiel]

Another thing I've wondered. Once all the trees are dead and horizontal, what happens to snowfall(wind affected) patterns? How will areas like the good stuff off lift 1 at loveland be affected? Will all fresh snow just be blown off?

[adam]

So the answer is clear

[shera]

Another thing I've wondered. Once all the trees are dead and horizontal, what happens to snowfall(wind affected) patterns? How will areas like the good stuff off lift 1 at loveland be affected? Will all fresh snow just be blown off?

Those aren't lodgepoles, are they? Too cold and high. I heard from mgmt that Keystone will have 100% kill.

[LightRanger]

Another thing I've wondered. Once all the trees are dead and horizontal, what happens to snowfall(wind affected) patterns? How will areas like the good stuff off lift 1 at loveland be affected? Will all fresh snow just be blown off?

That's another issue.

Bring on the dead fall.Bring on the Pine Beetle. We could use some better gladed areas, and with less needles on the trees holding snow in the canopy there is more snow on the ground. with any luck the dead tress will burn and them bamb .. instant alpine. I hate all this work to get above tree line.

I'm sure this was sarcastic. With the water content/wind y'all get in CO, the trees help keep snow on the ground in treed areas so it doesn't get blown to Nebraska. Edit because SheRa beat my post: In areas with lodgepoles.

Quik and iscariot, thanks for the smart comments.

[tommyvee]

Those aren't lodgepoles, are they? Too cold and high. I heard from mgmt that Keystone will have 100% kill.

Pretty much all the trees around Loveland seem to be Englemann Spruce or subalpine Fir, typical of the subalpine ecosystem zone. Lodgepole is more common in the lower Montane zone.

[QuikR12]

So the answer is clear

Well, yes and no. Eventually fire/fuel reduction is the answer, but to let fires just run rampant from day 1 has many problems of its own... as mentioned, our higher fuel densities now can and will create catastrophic fires, some of these will be in areas of greatest ecological importance (2002 biscuit fire in the Kalmiopsis Wilderness Area, Yellowstone Nat'l Park, Glacier etc.). But really, yes.. I fully believe in controlled burns and fuel reduction projects. Even indirect firefighting techniques are better than the "stomp it out" aggressive IA operations we are currently employing.

Tommyvee is spot on, the pre-euro fire regime created park like settings and well functioning forest ecosystems. Also, the wildland/urban interface poses problems, largely associated with the overstocked fuel densities are risky to burn and can become uncontrollable. I regularly burn the ground fuels surrounding my parents property (and no i don't live there).

Iscarot, very probably that climatic differences have played a role on the regenerating success/survival of the beetle larvae... good point.

And finally, to Blurred, the skeptic. Although the establishment of drought trends may decrease the resilience to attack from the beetle, while forest 'management' exacerbates the effect of drought on a forest stand. Organisms among an un-natural forest stocking density will be under heavier competition for resources including water. And if ground and surface water are both more scarce (limited), then the forest as a community will become collectively weaker, as stress over the available resources becomes greater. Also, the drought trend is absolutely undeniably attributable to climate change, according to ''Al Gore Science"

Since i dared to touch the subject, one other attributable factor of fuel and stocking densities is the increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. One of the biggest limiting factors of plant growth is the availability of CO2 to photosynthesize into sugars and O2 (ever introduce CO2 augmentation in a greenhouse? amazing results, right?). So it could be challenged, that the natural AND anthropogenic increases in CO2 in our atmosphere are also increasing stocking densities in our forests, though I wouldn't claim its a closely attenuated phenomenon.

[Blurred]

And finally, to Blurred, the skeptic. Although the establishment of drought trends may decrease the resilience to attack from the beetle, while forest 'management' exacerbates the effect of drought on a forest stand. Organisms among an un-natural forest stocking density will be under heavier competition for resources including water. And if ground and surface water are both more scarce (limited), then the forest as a community will become collectively weaker, as stress over the available resources becomes greater. Also, the drought trend is absolutely undeniably attributable to climate change, according to ''Al Gore Science"

Since i dared to touch the subject, one other attributable factor of fuel and stocking densities is the increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. One of the biggest limiting factors of plant growth is the availability of CO2 to photosynthesize into sugars and O2 (ever introduce CO2 augmentation in a greenhouse? amazing results, right?). So it could be challenged, that the natural AND anthropogenic increases in CO2 in our atmosphere are also increasing stocking densities in our forests, though I wouldn't claim its a closely attenuated phenomenon.

I know you're mostly typing this insanely boring diatribe only to impress those easily impressed by your dweeb talk.......but you and I probably already agree that fire suppression is only making matters worse, and....like most things in life, battling nature only causes more problems. I won't even comment on your second paragraph, as it is a serious response to a sarcastic remark I made......you're too easy. Funny how the "smartest" are also the most naive....ironic, isn't it?

And "according to Al Gore science"......I'm guessing since you called me a "skeptic", then you're in that camp.
That's a whole other debate that we've had here ad naseum.
We should start calling it ZOMBIE WARMINZ!!!!!!!!!!!

[tone capone]

Also, the drought trend is absolutely undeniably attributable to climate change, according to ''Al Gore Science"

Since your so sure of this, how about you and all of the rest of the geniuses who believe in bogus U.N. climate models and discredited politicians with huge conflicts of interest go ahead and foot the astronomical bill for "reversing" climate change alright? Thanks in advance.

[telestoner]

According to any legitimate literature or study I've read, the pine beetle infestations throughout the west are not attributable to global warming. Rather, it has more to do with the lack of a natural fire regime through the national (and other) forests. My own previous efforts (firefighting) in some cases perpetuated the problem. Without a natural fire regime, forest fuel densities increase and create an environment where native plant species are more susceptible to attack, and pests are more likely to thrive. The average fire return intervals in your average western lodgepole stand is very short, about 10 years. This means in a natural (not anthropogenically altered) stands, fire is expected to return and burn through an area once every 10 years.

With all due respect, what have you been reading? The current scientific consensus is that the pre-european (and current) fire regime in subalpine lodgepole forest consists of infrequent, severe, stand-replacing crown fires, and the driver is climate not fuels. I don't have a number in front of me but I believe the typical return interval is on the order of 150 years. If you want references I can give you plenty, but Schonennagel (2003) gives a good review. Here is a direct quote:

"Therefore, it is unlikely that the short period of fire exclusion has significantly altered the long fire intervals in subalpine forests (Romme and Despain 1989, Johnson et al. 2001, Veblen 2003)."

More fire would slow pine beetle spread by making their habitat less contiguous, but they don't appear to be limited by dispersal in this current outbreak. I guess the big "plus" of more fire would be is that they can't infest stands that are already dead.

[uglymoney]

Meanwhile if you're in the pine woods I suggest:



+



+



=

Fix almost everything

[telestoner]

Since your so sure of this, how about you and all of the rest of the geniuses who believe in bogus U.N. climate models and discredited politicians with huge conflicts of interest go ahead and foot the astronomical bill for "reversing" climate change alright? Thanks in advance.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it the big $$ going to politicians supporting the status quo? Where does big oil stand on cap 'n' trade?

edit: uglymonkey - you left out bailing wire

[Haywood Jablomie]

We should also stop volcanos, they pollute way more then humans.

As far as carbon dioxide goes...

Comparison of CO2 emissions from volcanoes vs. human activities.
Scientists have calculated that volcanoes emit between about 130-230 million tonnes (145-255 million tons) of CO2 into the atmosphere every year (Gerlach, 1999, 1991). This estimate includes both subaerial and submarine volcanoes, about in equal amounts. Emissions of CO2 by human activities, including fossil fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring, amount to about 27 billion tonnes per year (30 billion tons) [ ( Marland, et al., 2006) - The reference gives the amount of released carbon (C), rather than CO2, through 2003.]. Human activities release more than 130 times the amount of CO2 emitted by volcanoes--the equivalent of more than 8,000 additional volcanoes like Kilauea (Kilauea emits about 3.3 million tonnes/year)! (Gerlach et. al., 2002)

http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/index.php

[DougW]

I'm not a professional forrester but I did talk to one last week... So they only thing I could add that has not been brought up is that the control of the beetle is also a problem in that rather than let the infected area go to waste it is logged. So the beetles that are in the stump wake up look around and see there are no pine trees in the area so they have to fly. I was told that has increased the spread.

I was asking as I have one beetle caused death on my 10 acres so I wanted to limit the spread. So planning to rip out stump and put it on burn pile this fall, or burn it in place this winter.

[f2f]

DougW, did you hear anything re: early and mid-winter cold temps and their effects on the MPB population and spread this summer? I remember canucks talking about it in the "Holy Effin' Cold" thread when it hit -42 in Banff, but no actual material has been published this fall to detail the effects of the two cold snaps...

[DougW]

Another interesting fact on GW, CO2 and that stuff. Natural gas is not always such a great fuel. There are places , such as Thailand, where up to 90% of the gas out of the ground is CO2 which has to be filtered out and vented along with 10% of the original nat gas with it. Those types of fields should be shut down before anyone thinks about pumping CO2 into the earth. Supposed to be lots of feilds in Texas that are like that but not the 90% figure.

[DougW]

DougW, did you hear anything re: early and mid-winter cold temps and their effects on the MPB population and spread this summer? I remember canucks talking about it in the "Holy Effin' Cold" thread when it hit -42 in Banff, but no actual material has been published this fall to detail the effects of the two cold snaps...

I was interested to know what the effect was but I was under impression that even with a big kill, all it would do was stop the spread by several years. Which is of course good for Alberta. Scary how bad the pine kill is in Yoho. Maybe a big fire and a cold snap on the divide will save Banff but there are a lot of pine in the Bow valley.


On that down south of the border do you really get -40° that often? Is that really a control for places like CO?

[tommyvee]

With all due respect, what have you been reading? The current scientific consensus is that the pre-european (and current) fire regime in subalpine lodgepole forest consists of infrequent, severe, stand-replacing crown fires, and the driver is climate not fuels. .

Googling around the fire regime in lodgepole stands seems highly location dependent. But the longer intervals you quote tend to be for severe stand-replacing fires, while lower/moderate intensity fires were much more frequent.
Even within a singe range, fire intervals varied widely, so fire intervals between lodgepole in Colorado, California, and BC would also be expected to vary tremendously.

From (http://www.docstoc.com/docs/655532/F...ada-California)

"Moderately longaverage fire-return intervals (MFRI) were found at most sites (MFRI 30 to 83 years), although sampling at a few sites indicated much longer intervals. The latter were generallylocated at higher elevations and associatedwith foxtail pine at sites that showed noevidence of widespread fire (charred wood orcatfaces on trees or obvious charcoal in soil)and were dominated by trees several hundredyears old. Stephens (2001) sampled a singleupper montane mixed lodgepole/red fir siteon the east side of the central Sierra Nevadafound a MFRI of 24.7 years."

"CONCLUSIONS
The frequency of pre-EuroAmerican fires found at most lodgepole pine sites was not expected.These patterns of fire occurrence and severity suggest a mixed-severity fire regime and that large stand replacing fire events were rare in the southern Sierra. Additionally, there were mixeddegrees of synchronization among associated sites with strong evidence that some fires coveredlarge areas (many hundreds of hectares). Overall, the results suggest than at least in the southernSierra Nevada, fire played an important direct role in the dynamics of most lodgepole pineforests."

[Lone Star]

The Padded Room, JONGs?

[grrrr]

Boulder Mountain Parks cored trees to measure fire intervals and pre-European fire interval averaged about 13 years (across Ponderosa pine, fir, and lodgepole pine stands I think).

Non anthropogenic fire return intervals vary a bit more, with lodgepole having a shorter interval than pondo or fir. Anthropogenic fire intervals can be hard to measure accurately, due to the lower intensity when the interval falls to a very low number. Our estimate in the oak savannah was an actual return interval of probably 3 to 4 years in a measured 12 to 20 scarring. Results with pine might vary; very different fuels.

One thing that bugs me is all the beetles flying in your face when you're fighting a pine fire.

Other than that, there is a lot of stupidity in this thread.

[P_McPoser]

On that down south of the border do you really get -40° that often? Is that really a control for places like CO?

Winter before last we had several days in a row with morning temps -35*F..-20*F is not uncommon for a few weeks every winter. Typically more in the negative teens F.

[moose pit]

pine beetle kill pine

douglas fir beetle kills doug fir

spruce beetle kills spruce

emerald ash borer kills ash

it is called host specificity.

Pine beetles are not going to wipe out spruce, doug fir and true firs.

Fall and burn doesn't work

Climates are not static

God doesn't exist

It only counts if you ski away

there is more than one way to skin a cat

if it is wrapped in bacon it must be good

it is never to early to drink

[revitup]

One thing that bugs me is all the beetles flying in your face when you're fighting a pine fire.

Other than that, there is a lot of stupidity in this thread.

I thought pine beetle only had wings for about 2 weeks of its life cycle to find a host tree.(after the scout beetles finds a decent host tree and sends out its' pheromone to attract the masses)

the forest companys have a lot to lose if they let fire get at their resource. there is an unprecidented amount of mature pine out there. Just wait for the unprecidented firestorm. Boom Shiva!