Latest EL Nino (Spanish for the Nino)/Southern Oscillation forecast

[BDKeg]

i'll look into mammoth, thx

how does sw colorado do historically? telluride?

check out wolf creek or silverton for el nino in CO...those two usually do way better than telluride

[iscariot]

According to Tony Crocker, there's not much correlation:
http://173.193.223.192/~bestsnow/Neutral_areas.htm

Exactly. He only considers El Nino/La Nina, and not the AO, PDO, NAO, interactions. There are very few first order relationships in climate processes. And that also ignores regional complexities, previous ground state, the rate of transition of each of the hemispherical phenomena, etc...etc...etc...

[Buster Highmen]

Exactly. He only considers El Nino/La Nina, and not the AO, PDO, NAO, interactions. There are very few first order relationships in climate processes. And that also ignores regional complexities, previous ground state, the rate of transition of each of the hemispherical phenomena, etc...etc...etc...

Second odor translational matrices offer a fine wine view of hyperbolic manifolds which are locally umbilic. With a nowhere zero vector bundle not possible on a 2 sphere, it can be extrapolated from previous PDO datum that the PNW is heading into the wetter, colder half of the 30 year PDO cyclotomic polynomial with the indifferentiable rings of Uranus crusted with more snooty shit.

[thrav]

so where's likely to have snow in January?

I've heard good things about wolf creek early too; especially on an El Niño year. They had the best snow early last year, and great early snow the year before. Seems pretty consistent.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 August 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during July 2012 despite above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Reflecting this warmth, most of the weekly Niño index values remained near or greater than +0.5°C (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content anomalies (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) also remained elevated during the month (Fig. 3), consistent with a large region of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Although sub-surface and surface temperatures were above average, many aspects of the tropical atmosphere were inconsistent with El Niño conditions. Upper-level and low-level trade winds were near average along the equator, while tropical convection remained enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). However, convection increased near and just west of the International Date Line, which may eventually reflect a progression towards El Niño. The lack of a clear atmospheric response to the positive oceanic anomalies indicates ongoing ENSO-neutral conditions.
Nearly all of the dynamical models favor the onset of El Niño beginning in July- September 2012 (Fig. 6). As in previous months, several statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions through the remainder of the year, but the average statistical forecast of Niño-3.4 increased compared to last month. Supported by model forecasts and the continued warmth across the Pacific Ocean, there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13. El Niño conditions are likely to develop during August or September 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[::: :::]

I get bored with all the words...this is what i want to know

there is increased confidence for a weak-to-moderate El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2012-13.

[Sluffy]

seems to me like average to strong weather cycles (nino or nina) seem to push the jet stream to extremes (south and north) and that weak or neutral years the jet stream seems to just fucking sit right on top of us (tetons)

i'm no weather expert, just a lay mans observation....

i'm playing it safe and prediciting around 950-1150 inches for Jackson !

[neckdeep]

seems to me like average to strong weather cycles (nino or nina) seem to push the jet stream to extremes (south and north) and that weak or neutral years the jet stream seems to just fucking sit right on top of us (tetons)

i'm no weather expert, just a lay mans observation....

i'm playing it safe and prediciting around 950-1150 inches for Jackson !

As for the Tetons, if you look at this record, you'll see that the bad drought years of last decade were primarily ENSO neutral or mild to moderate El Nino cycle. And, note that although classified as ENSO neutral, most of those neutral months 2001-2007 are on the warm side of zero and part of a prolonged warm period. The drought years ran from 2001-2007 with one big winter (05/06) which, not coincidentally, occurred during a short swing over to Nina cycle. 05/06 produced 500 inches at the ghee, the other years were all 300-425 inch seasons that generally featured: 1. storm tracks arriving at the Tetons from the S/SW vector, 2. primarily trough and ridge patterns in jet stream and less zonal flow direct from the ocean, 3. long dry spells, 4. a warm, dry spring and early thaws. Two of those winters were so sunny that SW slopes and everything else below 8000ft never really filled in around the rocks. Basically, those years had fresh snow from xmas holidays into february and then storms would fizzle out and the sun would take over. Winter 06/07 was probably the worst season of the bunch and it was a mild El Nino so our upcoming forecast includes a probability for a terrible year. By terrible, I mean 300 inches. Terrible is relative in the Tetons but 300" usually means drought conditions.

Just a generalization, a set of probabilities or what have you.....but, over the past 15 years I have observed, El Nino or warm ENSO neutral ocean conditions in the late fall to mid-winter period has meant a 450+ inches season is possible but unlikely for the Tetons. The Village and the Pass tend to get deeper snow than Targhee from the southern storm track so Nino results may differ depending on where you live and ski. If, however, you go back 25 years and look at the ENSO records and cross reference with the April 1 snow stake records for Rendezvous bowl you'll see two telling patterns. Over the nine El Nino's, the stake totals average 87 inches. Over the nine La Nina's, the stake totals average 115 inches. More importantly, the highest measurement for a Nino year is 114 inches. That is below the AVERAGE Nina during the period!!! Yes, to repeat, over the last 25 years the highest measure for a Nino was one inch below an average Nina so arm chair expert Tony Crocker and other skiers who say it doesn't make a diff just don't pay attention to the Tetons or have a shit memory for ski conditions.

Ninas have produced all the ten foot deep Teton snowpacks over the last 30 years except two. The two previous record snowpacks for the stake on April 1 in '82 (146") and '97 (156") both occured in ENSO neutral years but, as you can see, both years were on the cold side of neutral. By mid april 2011, those records were broken during a very strong Nina cycle. Ninos, simply put, did not produce the 500+ inch seasons that make the Tetons legendary. Maybe the fluke Nino to break that pattern will occur this year but, in terms of probabilities, probably a lean year coming up. Tony Crock-o-shit specifically states that Targhee is the least ENSO sensitive resort on his worthless list, but the above data conclusively proves seasonal snow depths in the Tetons are very sensitive to cold/warm patterns in the ocean. It is a whoppingly huge 300 inch spread with the 300"-450" season probability dominated by Ninos/warm neutral and the Ninas/cold neutral typically producing 450-600" results and all the 600" years.

What about 2012? It was Nina and produced only 95 inches at that stake on April 1, right? Well, that may have been disappointing for a Nina but put into perspective, only three Ninos in 25 years exceeded 95" and not by much (99, 103, 114) so it could be said that a mediocre Nina produces skiing about as reliably as the best Nino outcomes. Or to handicap the probabilities down to "layman" odds: Nino = 1 out of 2 will suck, 1 in 4 will be mediocre and 1 in 4 will be good but nothing special. Nina = 1 in 3 will be epic, 1 in 3 will be good and 1 in 3 will just be decent to mediocre to suck, but only 1 in 9 chance it will suck. Only one fluke Nina year out of the last nine cycles over 25 years has genuinely sucked, 2001/71".

Whatever. I got my pass. What really makes the Tetons legendary is that a terrible season still means cold weather and 300 inches of powder.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nsoyears.shtml


http://jhavalanche.org/historicalData.php

[Sluffy]

someday i will buy you a beer for all the weather knowledge you drop on me....

my first year here was what you said was the worst, 06/07, and it was a incredibly epic year for me. tetons = sick, neckdeep or not

but im still gonna go ahead and predict a record breaking 850 inch year.... lets do this!

[SLCUTAH]

Go to http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin...son=win&type=a for El Nino and La Nina precipitation Anomalies. The left picture is precipitation anomalies for El Nino years, the right picture is precipitation anomalies for La Nina years. In general El Nino brings more snow to the southern US and La Nina brings more snow to the northern US. Go to http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product.../ensodisc.html for the current forecast which is still calling for a El Nino this year.

[lionelhutz]

It is too soon to tell. Moreover, the TYPE of El Nino it will be is yet to be determined. There isn't a strong enough signature in regions 3, 3.4 or 4 to determine whether the core of the anamoly will be east or west based. Studies are showing this has a significant role in affecting the sensible weather in the Western U.S.

Wait.

[neckdeep]

It is too soon to tell. Moreover, the TYPE of El Nino it will be is yet to be determined. There isn't a strong enough signature in regions 3, 3.4 or 4 to determine whether the core of the anamoly will be east or west based. Studies are showing this has a significant role in affecting the sensible weather in the Western U.S.

Wait.

Is that what determines whether a Nino snowpack will be ok/mediocre or just plain suck? Look at this:

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pih/PDF/ElNi...SepOutlook.pdf

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
4 October 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions are expected to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, possibly strengthening during the next few months.
During September 2012, the trend towards El Niño slowed in several key oceanic and atmospheric indicators. However, the Pacific basin reflects borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) remained elevated across the Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1), although anomalies decreased during the month as indicated by weekly index values in the Niño regions (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened (Fig. 3), but continued to show large regions of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). Interestingly, low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the equatorial western Pacific Ocean (Fig. 5), which may portend possible strengthening of the subsurface anomalies in the coming months. Despite these winds, the atmosphere was still largely ENSO-neutral, as reflected by the Southern Oscillation index and near-average upper-level and lower-level winds across much of the Pacific. Tropical convection increased near the Date Line, which is consistent with weak El Niño conditions, but also remained elevated over eastern Indonesia, which is further westward than expected (Fig. 6). Thus, the atmosphere and ocean indicate borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions.
Compared to the past few months, the chance is reduced for El Niño to develop during Northern Hemisphere fall/winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast). Due to the recent slowdown in the development of El Nino, it is not clear whether a fully coupled El Niño will emerge. The majority of models indicate that borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions will continue, and about half suggest that El Niño could develop, but remain weak (Fig. 7). The official forecast therefore favors the continuation of borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions into Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13, with the possibility of strengthening during the next few months.

[Buster Highmen]

Temp prediction for Nov-Jan as of 9/20/2012 for those of us that like pikchas:


Precip Pikcha, same dates:

PNW sad pants.

[Buster Highmen]

Temp prediction for Nov-Jan as of 9/20/2012 for those of us that like pikchas:


Precip Pikcha, same dates:



PNW sad pants but increases the reasons for a return to Taos:
JFM prepic prediction:

[whyturn]

Snow in socal this week at 7000 feet
Earliest I can remember in 10 years

[neckdeep]

El Nino watch 2012 was just officially cancelled by the NOAA climate prediction center! ENSO neutral likely for now with some models now pointing towards a cooling trend.

[goldenboy]

^^ but it also went back to a positive AO, which to me might be just like last year. i guess we'll see.

[montanaskier]

^^^ certainly bad for temps..... Prolonged cold weather plzzzz

[neckdeep]

^^ but it also went back to a positive AO, which to me might be just like last year. i guess we'll see.

Except that, unlike last year, the polar vortex will be interacting with a storm track that is predicted to be farther south than last years Nina storm track. Last year, sure, it often seemed that jet stream was anchored in AK and BC. It worked its way south to the Tetons enough times to give us a 400+ inch season but rarely went any further south. But, last year, it was the combined effect of weak polar pressure and a jet stream that was already set up in the northerly latitudes. Perhaps, if the jet stream is setting up for its typical Nino southerly track across the four corners/southern rockies area, then a weak polar force might combine to pull the storm track back north to the central rockies.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

Been on vacation so just now getting this up...

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 November 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13.
During October 2012, the Pacific Ocean continued to reflect borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El
Niño conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the Pacific Ocean
during the latter half of the month (Fig. 1), which was also reflected in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The
oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also increased
slightly (Fig. 3) in association with the downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave (Fig. 4). While the subsurface
and surface Pacific Ocean has recently warmed, the tropical atmosphere remained largely consistent with
ENSO-neutral. Upper-level and lower-level winds were near average, and the strength of anomalous
convection decreased over the past month (Fig. 5). Thus, the atmosphere and ocean continue to indicate
borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions.
Relative to last month, the SST model predictions more strongly favor ENSO-neutral, although
remaining above-average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 (Fig.
6). While the tropical ocean and atmosphere may resemble a weak El Niño at times, it is now considered
less likely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop. Therefore, the previous El Niño Watch has been
discontinued as the chance of El Niño has decreased. While the development of El Niño, or even La Niña,
cannot be ruled out during the next few months, ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern
Hemisphere winter 2012-13 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
6 December 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013.
During November 2012, the Pacific Ocean reflected ENSO-neutral conditions. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) anomalies were slightly positive across all of the tropical Pacific Ocean except for the far eastern portion (Fig. 1), as also indicated in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also slightly above average (Fig. 3), with largest amplitude in the east-central part of the basin (Fig. 4). Despite the subsurface and surface Pacific Ocean being slightly warmer than average, the tropical atmosphere remained in an ENSO-neutral state. Upper-level and lower-level zonal winds were near average, and convection was slightly suppressed over the eastern and central tropical Pacific (Fig. 5). Thus, both the atmosphere and ocean indicated ENSO-neutral conditions.
Relative to last month, the SST model predictions increasingly favor ENSO-neutral, with many remaining just slightly above average in the Niño-3.4 region through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013 (Fig. 6). While the tropical atmosphere and especially the ocean suggested borderline ENSO-neutral/ weak El Niño conditions at times from July to September, these signs have now largely dissipated. Therefore, it is considered unlikely that a fully coupled El Niño will develop during the next several months. ENSO-neutral is now favored through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 and into spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 January 2013
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
ENSO-neutral conditions continued during December 2012. Equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were positive in the western Pacific, near zero in the central Pacific, and slightly negative in much of the eastern Pacific (Fig 1). This SST anomaly pattern is also reflected in the Niño indices (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) in the equatorial Pacific became slightly below average (Fig. 3), with positive sub-surface temperature anomalies west of 165W and stronger negative anomalies in the east-central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Upper- and lower-level zonal winds were near average across the tropical Pacific, and the Southern Oscillation Index was slightly negative. Also, convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over western Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric features indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.
Model predictions favor near-average SST in the Niño-3.4 region from the Northern Hemisphere winter 2012-13 into summer 2013 (Fig. 6). Because predictions through the April-June season are known to be less skillful, the forecasts for the summer carry limited confidence at this time. Thus, it is considered unlikely that an El Niño or La Niña will develop during the next several months, and ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 February 2013
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013.
During January 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, although below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) prevailed across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). While remaining below average, a high degree of variability in the weekly Niño 3 and 3.4 indices was apparent during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) was also below-average (Fig. 3), largely reflecting negative subsurface temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. At the same time, positive anomalies increased and expanded eastward to the central Pacific by late January (Fig. 4). The variability in both the ocean and atmosphere was enhanced during January, at least partially due to a strong Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Consequently, the location of the MJO was reflected in the monthly averages of wind and convection. Anomalous upper-level winds were westerly over the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific, while low-level winds were near average. Relative to December 2012, the region of enhanced convection shifted eastward and became more prominent over Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Despite these transient features contributing to cool conditions, the collective atmospheric and oceanic system reflects ENSO-neutral.
The vast majority of models predict near-average SST (between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) in the Niño-3.4 region through the late Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, because model skill is generally low during April-June, there is less confidence in the forecast beyond the spring. Thus, ENSO-neutral is favored through Northern Hemisphere spring 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[userA]

Second odor translational matrices offer a fine wine view of hyperbolic manifolds which are locally umbilic. With a nowhere zero vector bundle not possible on a 2 sphere, it can be extrapolated from previous PDO datum that the PNW is heading into the wetter, colder half of the 30 year PDO cyclotomic polynomial with the indifferentiable rings of Uranus crusted with more snooty shit.

thanks in advance busterkelley