Latest EL Nino (Spanish for the Nino)/Southern Oscillation forecast

[rideit]

I am getting a pass at all three just to hedge my bets.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

La Nina may return
That could mean a good snow season, though likely not one like last winter.

By Cory Hatch, Jackson Hole, Wyo.
Date: September 21, 2011

La Nina conditions forming in the tropical Pacific Ocean likely mean another good snow year for Jackson Hole, meteorologists and climatologists say.

Current weather forecast maps for December through March predict good chances for above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures in the northern Rocky Mountains, including Jackson Hole.

The news comes after last winter’s La Nina-driven storms dumped 557 inches of snow at the Raymer plot by the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort closing date April 4. Another 150 inches or so fell in the backcountry later in the spring.

According to the Bridger-Teton National Forest, the Tetons receive an average annual snowfall of about 400 inches.

When a La Nina forms, water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are at least half a degree Celsius below average, says Dan Collins, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center. Such conditions are developing.

“The month of August reached that threshold,” Collins said. “There are some indications in the atmosphere that we have a La Nina-like pattern.”

This means the jet stream likely will move north, bringing more storms over the northern United States while the southern part of the country is expected to experience a drier winter, Collins said.

Other factors also point to a La Nina winter.

“We have enhanced easterly winds in the tropical Pacific at lower levels, and that’s consistent with La Nina,” Collins said. “And at higher levels, the winds are westerly winds.”

“We have below-normal convection, which means we have we have a below-normal level of clouds and precipitation over the tropical Pacific, which is consistent with La Nina,” Collins said. “The forecasts indicate that it should strengthen as we go toward winter.”

Researchers also are watching below-normal temperatures beneath the ocean surface that have cooled further in the last few months.

“The ocean is a very large source of energy for the atmosphere,” Collins said.

For Jackson Hole, La Nina generally means snow. Storms producing 8 to 11 inches on average are the norm for the northern Rocky Mountains during a La Nina season, Collins said.

“You have a clear, definite signal for more snowfall in a La Nina,” he said.

Good snow is likely, but not certain, said Klaus Wolter, a climatologist and research associate for the University of Colorado and NOAA.

“We expect a resumption of the La Nina event,” he said. “It’s pretty clear that the odds are good for at least normal snowfall.”
Wolter warned not to expect a repeat of last year.

“I found that in winters following [a La Nina winter], don’t expect too much,” he said. “There’s often a reduction. I would still be cautiously optimistic.”

Jim Woodmencey, a Jackson-based meteorologist who runs MountainWeather.com, also said a repeat is unlikely.

“Whether we’re going to get a repeat of last year, I would still say no,” he said. “But the prognosis is for at least a normal winter.”
And normal winters in Jackson Hole are pretty good, Woodmencey said.

Collins said it’s not unusual for La Ninas to repeat.

“It happens roughly half the time in the records we have for the last century,” he said. “And on occasion, we have three in a row.”

In addition to more snowfall, “you can get some pretty good cold snaps,” Wolter said. “Last year, there was a pretty severe cold snap in February. I’m hoping we get this again just to keep the pine beetles at bay.”

Pine beetles, which have ravaged forests throughout the Rocky Mountains, are susceptible to severe cold snaps, especially if they occur in the fall or spring.

Weather in a La Nina year “also tends to be windier in the winter,” Wolter said.

Last year’s copious amounts of snow were likely influenced by a strong La Nina that dissipated in the spring, Wolter said.

“If La Nina keeps going into the spring, we tend to have dry springs,” he said. “My best-case scenario is that we have a normal winter, maybe slightly above snowfall, then La Nina turns off and increases the chances for a wet spring. I’m a bit shaky on that in Wyoming.

“A weaker La Nina makes it more unpredictable as far as how long it will last,” Wolter said. “We’ve seen quite a few cases when El Nino or La Nina faded early. Somehow Mother Nature is more impatient in the last decade.”

Jerry Blann, president of the Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, said the La Nina forecast hopefully will translate into good business in the region this winter.

“We are [optimistic], but that’s balanced by a lot of headwinds in the economy right now,” he said. “People tend to wait and see.”

Woodmencey said he’s excited for the possibility of another La Nina winter.

“It’s comforting if you’re a skier in the northern Rockies and the Pacific northwest,” he said. “For us, neutral conditions are the worst-case scenario. El Nino isn’t so bad. It’s about a 50-50 chance.

“It’s OK to hang your hat on a La Nina prediction because they have a higher chance of having above-average snowfall.”

[schindlerpiste]

http://www.snowsports.org/Retailers/...ontentid/1624/

Good news predicted for the wasatch...surprise surprise.

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
6 October 2011
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to gradually strengthen and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
During September 2011, La Niña conditions strengthened as indicated by increasingly negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly Nino indices continued their cooling trend and all are currently at or below –0.5°C (Fig. 2). Consistent with this cooling, oceanic heat content (average temperature anomalies in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained below-average in response to a shallower thermocline across the eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). Also, convection continued to be suppressed near the Date Line, and became more enhanced near Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). In addition, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central tropical Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the continuation of La Niña conditions.
Currently, La Niña is not as strong as it was in September 2010. Roughly one- half of the models predict La Niña to strengthen during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (Fig. 6). Of these models, the majority predict a weak La Niña (3-month average in the Nino-3.4 region less than -0.9°C). In addition, a weaker second La Niña winter has occurred in three of the five multi-year La Niñas in the historical SST record since 1950. However, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS.v1) predicts a moderate-strength La Niña this winter (between –1.0°C to –1.4°C) and CFS.v2 predicts a strong La Niña (less than –1.5°C), which rivals last year’s peak strength. For CFS forecasts made at this time of year, the average error for December-February is roughly ±0.5°C, so there is uncertainty as to whether this amplitude will be achieved. Thus, at this time, a weak or moderate strength La Niña is most likely during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Across the contiguous United States, temperature and precipitation impacts associated with La Niña are expected to remain relatively weak during the remainder of the Northern Hemisphere early fall, and to strengthen during the late fall and winter. It is important to note that the strength of U.S. impacts is not necessarily related to the strength of La Niña across the equatorial Pacific. During October-December 2011, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the mid-section of the country. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across the Pacific Northwest, along with a higher probability for drier-than-average conditions across much of the southern tier of the country (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 15 September 2011).

[neckdeep]

I like that the last five months have followed roughly the same weather pattern as the 2010 summer leading into last season. A long wet spring that quickly transitioned into a dry yet cool summer, if you even want to call it a summer. I think we had maybe three or four days where the temps went over 85 and only four or five substantial rains, just like last summer. And now an abrupt shift from warm to freezing with an early october winter storm, just like last year. I got four inches on the porch at 6100ft. I'm optimistic. Based on these early signs, it feels like the Tetons got a lock on 450 inches, at least. The bad (under 450") winters during the drought years (99-04) were preceded by scorching summers and a dominant monsoonal air current. I'd be even more optimistic if all four SST graphs show a steeper decline in the next few weeks. Kind of been nagging at me that some of the buoy temps have hit a plateau lately.

[passholer]

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/ne...usa/42487.html

WOOT WOOT!

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
10 November 2011
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
During October 2011, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with La Niña conditions strengthened across the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). As a result, the recent weekly SST index values in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions dropped to near –1.0°C (Fig. 2). Also, the oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) remained below-average, reflecting an extensive area of below-average temperatures at depth (Fig. 4). The atmospheric circulation over the global tropics featured strong week-to-week variability during October in response to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). Averaged over the month, convection remained suppressed near the Date Line in association with La Niña, but was near-normal over Indonesia as the MJO acted to offset the increased convection typically associated with La Niña (Fig. 5). In addition, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds shifted into the western Pacific and over Papua New Guinea. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the continuation of La Niña conditions, although modified slightly by the MJO.
A majority of the models now predict La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6) and then gradually weaken after peaking during the November – January period. The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average in the Nino-3.4 region less than -0.9°C) and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to attain strong amplitude (less than –1.5°C) the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
During November 2011-January 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central U.S. with the odds favoring below-average temperatures over the north-central U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across the northern tier of states, excluding New England, and drier-than-average conditions are more probable across the southern tier of the U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 20 October 2011).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 December 2011
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12.
During November 2011, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with La Niña conditions continued across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The recent weekly SST indices in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions maintained levels near –1.0°C (Fig. 2), indicative of weak to moderate La Niña. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) weakened slightly, but still indicates a large area of below-average temperatures at depth in the eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also reflecting La Niña, the atmospheric circulation over the global tropics featured anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds in the central and west-central Pacific. Averaged over the month, convection was suppressed near and just west of the Date Line and enhanced over northern Australia and parts of Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns are consistent with the continuation of La Niña conditions.
A majority of the models predict a weak or moderate strength La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6) and then gradually weaken after peaking during the December – January period. The models are roughly split between those that predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average in the Nino-3.4 region between -0.5 and -0.9°C) and those that predict a stronger episode. Over the last half-century, La Niña events that were preceded by ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere summer (May-August) were less likely to attain strong amplitude (stronger than –1.5°C) the following winter. This observation, in combination with the model forecasts, favors a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere winter, likely weakening with the onset of northern spring.
During December 2011 - February 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S. below-average temperatures over the western and north-central U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across the northern tier of states, excluding New England, and drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S.

[johnnygolucky]

It's been sunny and dry for weeks in Washington. What's up for the next week you ask?
Oh, a dusting on Wed and then sunny and dry.
Lies, it's all lies...............La Nina my taco!

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 January 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to continue into the Northern spring 2012.
During December 2011, below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) associated with La Niña continued across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly SST index in the Niño-3.4 region remained near –1.0°C throughout the month (Fig. 2), indicating a weak to moderate La Niña. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies strengthened across the eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), reflecting a large area of below-average temperatures in the subsurface (Fig. 4). In the atmosphere, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds strengthened over the central and west-central Pacific. Convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific and enhanced over northern Australia and parts of Indonesia and the Philippine Islands (Fig. 5). Consistent with these conditions, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) also strengthened. This evolution is consistent with past events, in which the atmospheric components of La Niña become strongest and most well-defined during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Collectively, the ongoing oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect the continuation of a weak to moderate La Niña.
A majority of models predict a weak or moderate strength La Niña to peak during the December – February season, and then to continue into early Northern Hemisphere spring season before dissipating during the March to May period (Fig. 6). A slight majority of models predict La Niña to remain weak (3-month average SST anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region between -0.5 and -0.9°C) this winter, while several others predict a moderate-strength episode (anomaly in the Niño-3.4 region between -1.0 and -1.4°C). The latest observations, combined with model forecasts, suggest that La Niña will be of weak-to-moderate strength this winter, and will continue thereafter as a weak event until it likely dissipates sometime between March and May.
During January - March 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and below-average temperatures over the western and the northwest-central U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across most of the northern tier of states and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 15 December 2011).
This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 February 2012. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

[tone capone]

What a shock, a highly politicized governmental agency can't predict the weather 3 months in advance, 3 weeks in advance or 3 days in advance, what's the difference. And some of you believe they can predict it 30 years out. What a joke. I wonder what the hurricane predictions are going to be this year?

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 February 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012.
A mature La Niña continued during January 2012, as below-average sea surface temperatures (SST) persisted across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The weekly SST indices remained near –1.0°C in the Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 regions (Fig. 2). However, the negative SST anomalies weakened in the far eastern Pacific, indicated by warming in the Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 regions. The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened slightly (Fig. 3), but continued to reflect an extensive area of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also, anomalous low-level easterly and upper-level westerly winds persisted over the central and west-central Pacific. Convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, the oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weak-to-moderate strength La Niña.
A majority of models predict La Niña to weaken through the rest of the Northern Hemisphere winter 2011-12, and then to dissipate during the spring 2012 (Fig. 6). Also, there is evidence of a downwelling phase of an eastward-propagating oceanic Kelvin wave (red shading, Fig. 4), which may increase temperatures across the Pacific in the next couple of months. The combination of a weakening subsurface temperature anomaly, the historical seasonal evolution, and forecaster preference for the average dynamical model prediction favors a return to ENSO-neutral conditions during the Northern Hemisphere spring, which are likely to continue into the summer. Therefore La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during March-May 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast) .
Because the strength of impacts in the United States is not necessarily related to the exact strength of La Niña in the tropical Pacific, we expect La Niña impacts to continue even as the episode weakens. Over the U.S. during February - April 2012, there is an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central and southeastern U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across most of the northern tier of states (except the north-central U.S.) and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and drier-than-average conditions are more likely across the southern tier of the U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 19 January 2012).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 March 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012.
La Niña weakened during February 2012, as near- to- above average sea surface temperatures (SST) emerged in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). However, below-average SSTs persisted in the central Pacific, as indicated by the latest weekly Niño-3.4 and Niño-4 indices which were near –0.5°C (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also weakened notably (Fig. 3), as reflected by a shallow lens (0m to ~25m depth) of positive temperature anomalies east of 125°W and by diminished below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). These changes are partly associated with strong low-level westerly wind anomalies across the eastern Pacific, which at times reflected the absence of equatorial easterlies in that region. Nonetheless, the larger scale atmospheric circulation anomalies continued to reflect the ongoing La Niña. Enhanced low-level equatorial easterlies persisted over the central and west-central Pacific, while convection remained suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Malyasia and the Phillipines (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns reflect a weakening La Niña.
A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to return during March-May 2012 and to continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 6). The rapid weakening of the negative surface and subsurface temperature anomalies during February 2012, combined with the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, lends support to the return of ENSO-neutral conditions in the coming months. Therefore, La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions by the end of April 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
Because impacts often lag the demise of an ENSO episode, La Niña-like impacts are expected to persist into the upcoming season. Over the U.S. during March - May 2012, La Niña is associated with an increased chance of above-average temperatures across the south-central U.S., and below-average temperatures in the northwestern U.S. Also, above-average precipitation is favored across western Washington, the Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes, while drier-than-average conditions are more likely across Florida, the Gulf Coast, and the southwestern U.S. (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 16 February 2012).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 April 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April 2012.
La Niña continued to weaken during March 2012, as below-average SSTs persisted primarily in the central Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices have warmed considerably during the last two months, and the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices averaged only near -0.5 in March (Fig.2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of ocean) anomalies also continued to warm (Fig. 3), with alternating pockets of negative and positive temperature anomalies observed within the upper 100 m in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Significant anomalous low-level westerly winds developed in the western tropical Pacific in late March, associated with the MJO (Fig. 5). This wind event could further warm the central and eastern Pacific within the coming few months. Presently, however, the larger scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and the Southern Oscillation Index retain their La Niña characteristics. Accordingly, convection remains suppressed in the western and central Pacific, and enhanced over Indonisia, Malaysia and the Philippines (Fig. 6). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate that a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions is underway.
A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions for March-May 2012, continuing through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2012 (Fig. 7). Based on the continued weakening of the negative SST anomalies during March 2012, and on the historical tendency for La Niña to dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring, we continue to expect La Niña to dissipate during April 2012. ENSO-neutral conditions are then expected to persist through the summer. Thereafter, there is considerable uncertainty in the forecast, which slightly favors ENSO-neutral or developing El Niño conditions over a return to La Niña conditions during the remainder of 2012 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).
Because atmospheric impacts often lag the demise of an ENSO episode, aspects of La Niña are reflected in the coming season. Over the U.S. during April - June 2012, La Niña has the following weak influences on the climate outlook: There is an increased chance of above-average temperatures in the south-central U.S., and below-average temperatures in the Northwest. Also, drier-than-average conditions are more likely across Utah and Colorado, and along the western Gulf of Mexico (see 3-month seasonal outlook released on 15 March 2012).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
3 May 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: Final La Niña Advisory
Synopsis: La Niña has transitioned to ENSO-neutral conditions, which are expected to continue through northern summer 2012.
La Niña dissipated during April 2012, as below-average SSTs weakened across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean and above-average SSTs persisted in the east (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were warmer than -0.5oC throughout the month, and the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies also became positive in April (Fig. 3), as below-average sub-surface temperatures largely disappeared and above-average sub-surface temperatures expanded in both the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Consistent with the demise of La Niña, enhanced trade winds and reduced convection over the central equatorial Pacific were much weakened during April, and the area of enhanced convection that had previously dominated the western Pacific and Indonesia became disorganized (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate a transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions.
The current and evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that La Niña is unlikely to re-develop later this year. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions to continue from April-June (AMJ) through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6). However, at least half of the dynamical models predict development of El Niño conditions by JJA. Still, from JJA onward there is considerable forecast uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño conditions will prevail, due largely to the inability to predict whether the warmer SST will result in the ocean-atmosphere coupling required for a sustained El Niño event. The official forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by approximately equal chances of Neutral or El Niño conditions for the remainder of the year (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[bamboocoreONLY]

very thorough write up, predicting a weak to moderate el nino

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p...-forecast.html

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
7 June 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: There is a 50% chance that El Niño conditions will develop during the second half of 2012.
ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed in May 2012, following the dissipation of La Niña in April. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently near average across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and above-average in the far eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). The Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were near zero during most of May, while the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2 indices remained positive (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) anomalies became more strongly positive in May (Fig. 3), as above-average sub-surface temperatures became established across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The low-level trade winds and convection over the central equatorial Pacific were near average during May, although convection remained enhanced over portions of the western Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric patterns indicate ENSO-neutral conditions.
The extensive volume of above-average sub-surface water temperatures indicates that the tropical Pacific SST anomalies will likely warm further in the coming months. A majority of models predict ENSO-neutral to continue through the June-August (JJA) season (Fig. 6). Thereafter, most of the dynamical models predict El Niño to develop during JAS, while the statistical models tend to favor the continuation of ENSO-neutral. Thus, there remains uncertainty as to whether ENSO-neutral or El Niño will prevail during the second half of the year. The evolving conditions, combined with model forecasts (Fig. 6), suggest that ENSO-neutral and El Niño are roughly equally likely during the late northern summer and fall. The CPC/IRI forecast calls for ENSO-neutral conditions through JAS, followed by an approximately 50% likelihood for El Niño during the remainder of the year (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[Woolly the Mammoth]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
5 July 2012
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch
Synopsis: Chances increase for El Niño beginning in July-September 2012.
During June 2012, ENSO-neutral continued as reflected in both the oceanic and atmospheric
anomalies. However, positive equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have grown,
exceeding +0.5°C across the eastern Pacific Ocean by the end of June (Fig. 1). SST anomalies increase
moving from the westernmost Niño 4 region to the Niño 1+2 region adjacent to South America, which
remained near +1.5°C during the month (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content anomalies (average
temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) increased during June (Fig. 3), as above-average sub-surface
temperatures became more entrenched in the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). This warming was consistent
with a weakening of the low-level trade winds across the east-central equatorial Pacific, along with a
weakening of the persistent pattern of enhanced convection near Papua New Guinea (Fig. 5). The
observations are consistent with ENSO-neutral, but reflect a likely progression towards El Niño.
There continues to be a substantial disparity between the statistical and dynamical model SST
forecasts for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 6). The dynamical models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast
System (CFS), largely favor the development of El Niño by July-September 2012, while the majority of
statistical models predict ENSO-neutral through the rest of 2012. The forecaster consensus largely favors
the dynamical model outcome because those models tend to exhibit greater skill emerging from the
Northern Hemisphere “spring barrier” (a period of relatively low confidence ENSO forecasts) and also
due to the strengthening of observed signals indicating an evolution towards El Niño. Overall, the
forecaster consensus reflects increased chances for El Niño beginning in July-September 2012 (see
CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

[::: :::]

Ok so it's looking like el niño so far

My 15th anniversary is this coming january and I'd like to book a snowy vacation for me and mrs acinpdx - I can't afford to go outside the US, so where's likely to have snow in January?

Internet research has been contradictory - what say the collective?

[rideit]

God, after how many years, and I STILL don't know whether an El Niño or La Nina is 'better' for the Tetons...both have produced massive years, and abysmal busts. And everything in between...

[iscariot]

God, after how many years, and I STILL don't know whether an El Niño or La Nina is 'better' for the Tetons...both have produced massive years, and abysmal busts. And everything in between...

That's because you have to factor in what the Arctic Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are doing (the North Atlantic Oscillation can also have influences for the eastern parts of Canada and the US, which further complicates things) . El Nino/La Nina do not exist in a vacuum. If you do some canonical correlation on those three phenomena, the picture becomes a bit clearer and some general trends can be drawn; however, predictions of the strength and nature of each, and the combined influences, are more difficult.

[rideit]

Exactly my point...we will get what we get, no more and no less. So, it's better to have a good quiver of snow toys.

However, for the pre-planning traveling skier, I guess this is pretty damn useful to track.
Thanks!

[montanaskier]

Ok so it's looking like el niño so far

My 15th anniversary is this coming january and I'd like to book a snowy vacation for me and mrs acinpdx - I can't afford to go outside the US, so where's likely to have snow in January?

Internet research has been contradictory - what say the collective?

based on averages, you should go south...like Mammoth for teh uber deep.

[::: :::]

i'll look into mammoth, thx

how does sw colorado do historically? telluride?

[Buster Highmen]

how does sw colorado do historically? telluride?

According to Tony Crocker, there's not much correlation:
http://173.193.223.192/~bestsnow/Neutral_areas.htm