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  1. #76
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    Nov 2008
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    nevermindlolz
    Last edited by hitmanbob; 08-21-2010 at 10:15 PM. Reason: Too much win

  2. #77
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    Vail
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    358
    nice discussion and animation. bring on the niña!

  3. #78
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    Vail
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    Climate Prediction Center 5/17/10 update

    Last Week Numbers

    Niño 4= +0.5
    Niño 3.4= +0.3
    Niño 3= +0.5
    Niño1+2= +0.2

    This Week Numbers

    Niño 4= +0.4ºC
    Niño 3.4= -0.1ºC
    Niño 3= 0.0ºC
    Niño1+2= +0.4ºC


    Fuck yeah.

  4. #79
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    Nov 2008
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    Bellingham
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    484
    would be better to see it occuring later in the summer. still a looong 5 months for those sst anomalies to change

  5. #80
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    West By God Wyoming
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    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    3 June 2010
    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch / Final El Niño Advisory
    Synopsis: Conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June – August 2010.
    El Niño dissipated during May 2010 as positive surface temperature (SST) anomalies decreased rapidly across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and negative SST anomalies emerged across the eastern half of the Pacific (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices decreased between 0.5°C to 1.0°C during the month (Fig. 2). Since the end of February, subsurface heat content anomalies (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) have decreased steadily. Below-average temperatures have strengthened at depth and currently extend to the surface in parts of the eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). Also during May, enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia, while the area of suppressed convection strengthened and expanded over the tropical central Pacific (Fig. 5). The low-level easterly trade winds strengthened over the western and central equatorial Pacific, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed over the east-central Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the demise of El Niño and return of ENSO-neutral conditions.
    The majority of models predict ENSO-neutral conditions (between -0.5°C to +0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region) through early 2011 (Fig. 6). However, over the last several months, a growing number of models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate the onset of La Niña conditions during June-August 2010. There is an increasing confidence in these colder model forecasts, which is supported by recent observations that show cooling trends in the Pacific Ocean and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, conditions are favorable for a transition to La Niña conditions during June-August 2010.

  6. #81
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    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    8 July 2010
    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
    Synopsis: La Niña conditions are likely to develop during July – August 2010.
    During June 2010, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to decrease across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies expanding across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 1). While the rate of decrease slowed during June, all of the Niño indices were cooler compared to the previous month (Fig. 2). The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) also remained below-average during the month. Subsurface temperature anomalies became increasingly negative in the east-central equatorial Pacific and extended to the surface across the eastern half of the basin (Fig. 4). Also during June, enhanced convection persisted over Indonesia, while the area of suppressed convection strengthened and expanded westward over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect developing La Niña conditions.
    The majority of models now predict La Niña conditions (SST anomalies less than or equal to -0.5°C in the Niño-3.4 region) to develop during June-August and to continue through early 2011 (Fig. 6). Confidence in this outcome is reinforced by the recent performance of the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) (Fig. 7), the large reservoir of colder-than-average subsurface water (Fig. 3), and signs of coupling with the atmospheric circulation. Therefore, La Niña conditions are likely to develop during July-August 2010.

  7. #82
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    Jan 2006
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    Fuck yea! La Nina next season!
    eating and sleeping is serious business

  8. #83
    Rasputin's Avatar
    Rasputin is online now Полые тростник на ветру
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    Thanks Woolly, I have a very good feeling about the coming winter.
    I form the light, and create darkness: I make peace, and create evil: I the LORD do all these things. -אלוהים אדירים

  9. #84
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    was sooo hoping for another neutral (see 600 inches) winter for jackson nina isnt bad at all though, no more nino!!!
    "I think people resist freedom because they're afraid of the unknown. But it's ironic....That unknown was once very well known. It's where our souls belong....The only solution is to confront them--confront yourself--with the greatest fear imaginable. Expose yourself to your deepest fear. After that, fear has no power, and fear of freedom shrinks and vanishes. You are free." -Jim Morrison

  10. #85
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    Aug 2010
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    well said- using something everybody can relate to these days to make a point.
    "our economy is strong" quote the shoe-dodger.


    Buy Car Insurance

  11. #86
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    Nov 2009
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    Vail
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    Humble-

    These ENSO conditions are pretty analogous with the 07-08 winter season. I live in Vail, but I know that Jackson had an incredible year that year too:

    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?repor...ted=Get+Report

    Maybe the stars will align again....

  12. #87
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    Huge debate right now as to whether this is 1998-99 repeated. For the Pac NW that would be boner city.

  13. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by lionelhutz View Post
    Huge debate right now as to whether this is 1998-99 repeated. For the Pac NW that would be boner city.
    yes please!

  14. #89
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    Mar 2008
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    More good news:

    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    5 August 2010
    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
    Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.
    During July 2010 La Niña conditions developed, as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies strengthened across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices decreased with values less than -1.0°C in Niño 1+2, 3, and 3.4 regions at the end of the month (Fig. 2). The subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) continued to reflect a deep layer of below-average temperatures east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific (Fig. 5). Enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds continued over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the development and strengthening of La Niña conditions.
    Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue through early 2011 (Fig. 6). However, there is disagreement among the models over the eventual strength of La Niña. Most dynamical models generally predict a moderate-to-strong La Niña, while the majority of the statistical model forecasts indicate a weaker episode. Given the strong cooling observed over the last several months and the apparent ocean-atmosphere coupling (positive feedback), the dynamical model outcome of a moderate-to-strong episode is favored at this time. Therefore, La Niña conditions are expected to strengthen and last through Northern Hemisphere Winter 2010-11.
    Expected La Niña impacts during August-October 2010 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Temperature and precipitation impacts over the United States are typically weak during the Northern Hemisphere summer and early fall, but strengthen considerably during late fall and winter. Also, La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook).

  15. #90
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    Apr 2006
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    Jhole =)
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    781
    ^^ Sweet.

    spaceweather.com is looking good too, we are finally out of our solar minimum and the sun is starting to get really REALLY active. Prepare for powder and armageddon!
    woohooo
    "I think people resist freedom because they're afraid of the unknown. But it's ironic....That unknown was once very well known. It's where our souls belong....The only solution is to confront them--confront yourself--with the greatest fear imaginable. Expose yourself to your deepest fear. After that, fear has no power, and fear of freedom shrinks and vanishes. You are free." -Jim Morrison

  16. #91
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    Oct 2008
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    JH
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    Already swinging...

  17. #92
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    Oct 2003
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    in ewe
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    We've had below average temps for 4 straight months in NW MT.

    Bring on the biotch

  18. #93
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
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    Out There
    Posts
    1,741
    Stop calling her a biotch. We love the little girl.
    "We need sometimes to escape into open solitudes, into aimlessness, into the moral holiday of running some pure hazard, in order to sharpen the edge of life, to taste hardship, and to be compelled to work desperately for a moment at no matter what. -George Santayana, The Philosophy of Travel

    ...it would probably bother me more if I wasn't quite so heavily sedated. -David St. Hubbins, This Is Spinal Tap

  19. #94
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    JH, WY
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    2,055
    Quote Originally Posted by Humble View Post
    was sooo hoping for another neutral (see 600 inches) winter for jackson nina isnt bad at all though, no more nino!!!
    JH got the 600 inch winter in a La Nina winter of '08 & '06 was one as well we had 500 inches. I like La Ninas for JH.
    Always charging it in honor of Flyin' Ryan Hawks.

  20. #95
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    Mar 2008
    Location
    West By God Wyoming
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    419
    EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
    issued by
    CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
    9 September 2010
    ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
    Synopsis: La Niña is expected to last at least through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2010-11.
    La Niña strengthened during August 2010, as negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reached at least -1°C across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean by the end of the month (Fig. 1). All of the Niño indices cooled to between –1.3°C and –1.8°C by the end of August (Fig. 2). Consistent with this evolution, the subsurface heat content (average temperatures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 3) decreased further, reflecting the additional cooling of sub-surface waters east of the Date Line (Fig. 4). Also convection was enhanced over Indonesia, while remaining suppressed over the western and central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5). The pattern was associated with the continuation of enhanced low-level easterly trade winds and anomalous upper-level westerly winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect the strengthening of La Niña.
    Nearly all models predict La Niña to continue at least through early 2011 (Fig. 6). However, the models continue to disagree on the eventual strength of La Niña. Based on current observations and model guidance, we expect the SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region to either persist near the present strength, or to strengthen into the winter as is consistent with the historical evolution of La Niña. Thus, it is likely that the peak strength of this event will be at least moderate (3-month average between –1°C to –1.4°C in Niño-3.4) to strong (3-month average of –1.5°C or less in Niño-3.4).
    Expected La Niña impacts during September-November 2010 include suppressed convection over the central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. The transition into the Northern Hemisphere Fall means that La Niña will begin to exert an increasing influence on the weather and climate of the United States. These impacts include an enhanced chance of above-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, and below-average precipitation in the Southwest and in portions of the middle and lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley. Also, La Niña can contribute to increased Atlantic hurricane activity by decreasing the vertical wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean (see the August 5th update of the NOAA Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Outlook), and to suppressed hurricane activity across the central and eastern tropical North Pacific.
    This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 7 October 2010. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.
    Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/National Weather Service Camp Springs, MD 20746-4304

  21. #96
    Join Date
    Oct 2008
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    JH
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    434
    Look at it spike. Hitting numbers that haven't been seen since 1976.

  22. #97
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    SLC
    Posts
    139
    this table is updated monthly.

    http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/...MEI/table.html


    I still think our analog is 73-74. SLC had over 4 inches of water sept 73 though and that's not panning out so far. Mostly been windy here. When the winds of November blow in September...?
    "How do you write women so well?"
    "I think of a man and take away reason and accountability."

  23. #98
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
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    Jhole =)
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    Quote Originally Posted by Altaholic View Post
    JH got the 600 inch winter in a La Nina winter of '08 & '06 was one as well we had 500 inches. I like La Ninas for JH.
    i have been here since 06/07 and i thought it went like this...


    06/07 300 Inches (El Nino)
    07/08 600 Inches (Neutral)
    08/09 500 Inches (La Nina)
    09/10 400 Inches (El Nino)


    i could be wrong and i forgot where i came to this conclusion. can someone clear this up for me, i couldn't find a historical source that was valid. I mean about the weather cycle too, i know the inches are just kind of rough numbers.
    "I think people resist freedom because they're afraid of the unknown. But it's ironic....That unknown was once very well known. It's where our souls belong....The only solution is to confront them--confront yourself--with the greatest fear imaginable. Expose yourself to your deepest fear. After that, fear has no power, and fear of freedom shrinks and vanishes. You are free." -Jim Morrison

  24. #99
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    West By God Wyoming
    Posts
    419
    That's what I remember too Humble.

  25. #100
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    MN
    Posts
    5
    So it sounds like JH, Vail, an the pac NW will get hit? is that right. Who gets left out? How bout Revelstoke or Mamoth?

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