Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[zartagen]

How much does the cold front matter if it doesn't have any/much moisture associated with it? Cold air might help a little bit, but I would assume the associated winds would hurt more?

Cold air, wind shift, and high humidity all come with the cold front. The shift to easterly winds can push the fire back or keep it from progressing as far. If it blows back on itself, it may run out of fuel - side one of the fire triangle. The easterly winds will also be lighter than the westerlies that pushed it so far yesterday/today. Lighter winds = less oxygen, another side of the fire triangle. Cold and high humidity cool the fire, lessening the third side of the fire triangle - heat. Precipitation would cool it more, which a cold front can also deliver if it provides enough lift to push the air to a point that is cold enough that it saturates and rains/snows.

Basically, this cold front *should* be the 1-2 punch to suppress the fire, at least on this side of the divide. That is, if the fire isn't so fucking hot and raging that it creates its own weather.

I'm just an amateur dentist, but that's my weather take.

[smmokan]

Saw on the tweeter that Polis said they've lost 6,500 structures. Can anyone confirm he said that?
.

Not true... the 6500 number was in reference to the number of structures or addresses that are under evacuation order, not the number that have been destroyed.

[EWG]

Thank goodness.

Not true... the 6500 number was in reference to the number of structures or addresses that are under evacuation order, not the number that have been destroyed.

[smmokan]

Up to 170k+ acres, essentially in under 48 hours. That’s fucking insane.

[ASmileyFace]

This will go down as the worst fire in Colorado history. No doubt about that.

Vibes to all involved. I'm dancing my snow dance hard right now. Bring on that moisture.

[Danno]

Chris Tomer just posted that Colorado’s two largest wildfires ever are both currently burning 10 miles apart.

[Kinnikinnick]

Definitely spread towards Estes overnight

https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/?fbclid=IwA...4/-105.7022/11


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[Jtlange]

Definitely spread towards Estes overnight

https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/?fbclid=IwA...4/-105.7022/11


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You have to think they are fighting the established spot on the close side of the divide with some high intensity. Looks like its on a direct path to Estes.

[zartagen]

Looks like weather at least slowed it down a bit on the east side. Maybe the fuel in the east vs west was different as well. Downslope winds should build back up today and tomorrow before the next storm system hits tomorrow night. The next 36 hours don't look good, hopefully some good luck and good firefighting can hold it back until the snow arrives.

[goldenboy]

Yeah, seems like today is the day to contain the eastern part of the fire while it's cold and calmer winds. Otherwise Saturday looks like another bad one with the wind.

[EWG]

You have to think they are fighting the established spot on the close side of the divide with some high intensity. Looks like its on a direct path to Estes.

Oh man, yeah, it's running right at it.

[Foggy_Goggles]

Just a quick heads up for anyone considering visiting Grand County this weekend...even though the Upper Fraser River Valley hasn't been directly affected by the fire I can't recommend coming to WP, Fraser, or Tabernash. It is a bit of a refuge camp as most people that have evacuated from Grand Lake and Granby areas are posted up here. Horse and RVs everywhere, super long lines at the gas stations and grocery (City Market closed at 3pm yesterday), some sort of weird panic-y fish outta water vibe from outta state tourtists and WFH Covid hideouts. Combine this with a full closure of public lands and a bit of a strange place to be for an outsider. I'm not saying don't go but it is ain't all flat brims, chardonnay, and puffy coats this weekend. [/blog]

[I've seen black diamonds!]

^^^ You doing ok, Foggy?

[hawkgt]

Just a quick heads up for anyone considering visiting Grand County this weekend...even though the Upper Fraser River Valley hasn't been directly affected by the fire I can't recommend coming to WP, Fraser, or Tabernash. It is a bit of a refuge camp as most people that have evacuated from Grand Lake and Granby areas are posted up here. Horse and RVs everywhere, super long lines at the gas stations and grocery (City Market closed at 3pm yesterday), some sort of weird panic-y fish outta water vibe from outta state tourtists and WFH Covid hideouts. Combine this with a full closure of public lands and a bit of a strange place to be for an outsider. I'm not saying don't go but it is ain't all flat brims, chardonnay, and puffy coats this weekend. [/blog]

good advice, stay safe. if need anything from the frontside, let us know. can shuttle up supplies and gtfo if needed.

[d-root]

Well said, Foggy. Stay safe.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I live in Tabernash so not even is the same valley as the fire right now. I'd say the risk to my community is that the winds turn north, the fire crosses 34 and comes through The Strawberry/ Doe Creek. That said I've got a life time of stories of some truly heroic shit, I've moved a lot of horses and cows, pulled a ton of equipment trailers...and unfortunately know a lot of people who's home, businesses, and lively hoods are probably gone.

That said this community if full of mostly compassionate get it done hard headed helpful rednecks who just make it happen. We will come out the other side stronger no doubt.

[Foggy_Goggles]

I live in Tabernash so we are out of the line of fire for now. It terms of helping out, I think that is too come. If I hear of any immediate needs, I'll let you know. Everyone is asking to help and nobody needs anything that I know of.

[Danno]

Just a quick heads up for anyone considering visiting Grand County this weekend...even though the Upper Fraser River Valley hasn't been directly affected by the fire I can't recommend coming to WP, Fraser, or Tabernash. It is a bit of a refuge camp as most people that have evacuated from Grand Lake and Granby areas are posted up here. Horse and RVs everywhere, super long lines at the gas stations and grocery (City Market closed at 3pm yesterday), some sort of weird panic-y fish outta water vibe from outta state tourtists and WFH Covid hideouts. Combine this with a full closure of public lands and a bit of a strange place to be for an outsider. I'm not saying don't go but it is ain't all flat brims, chardonnay, and puffy coats this weekend. [/blog]

Good PSA. Why anyone would think now is the time to visit WP is beyond me; they should be beaten.

The people I know that are second home owners were offering up their places on the Grand County Garage Sale FB page for displaced locals.

Stay safe foggy, thanks for the updates.

[Foggy_Goggles]

If you own a second home up by the ski area, you while about the smoke an refer to the people affected by the fire as "those people in Granby and Grand Lake", you are an insensitive asshole. I won't forget. Sorry your new Audi has some ash on it.

https://www.skyhinews.com/news/sheri...ublesome-fire/
I've know Lyle and Marilyn since I was 22 years old. The world needs more people like them.

This fire is going to be with us for a long time. At this point, it is safe to assume that ski season may be on a bit of a hold. There are so many displaced families that businesses are having a hard time operating. School is closed next week.

[Name Redacted]

Damn Foggy, sorry for your loss. Good luck over there. Hopefully this snow puts a big wet damper on the fires, albeit far too late for some.

[Kinnikinnick]

Pray for Estes.

Snow coming in tonight and tomorrow but a red flag day until then.

https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/?fbclid=IwA...5/-105.6512/11



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[cmsummit]

It’s windy AF today.....no bueno. I hope crews were able to hit that eastern fire pocket hard yesterday. It’s gonna be impossible to contain it today with this wind.


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[EWG]

From that map it looks like fire is in the middle of Grand Lake. Has the map been accurate or is it geoshifted at all?

[Kinnikinnick]

From that map it looks like fire is in the middle of Grand Lake. Has the map been accurate or is it geoshifted at all?

I assume that there are some errors in the exact locations mapped.


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[Name Redacted]

Gust of 107 mph recorded at Copper mtn last night.