Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**adrenalated** · 03-09-2021, 02:36 PM

Or the model forecasts on CAIC

**funkendrenchman** · 03-09-2021, 02:37 PM

Originally Posted by simple

I miss calling the ski areas for the snow totals. The newspapers were delayed a day so to get the real # you called the 1-800 number

Haha, me too, but that was 20 years ago.

**skaredshtles** · 03-09-2021, 02:51 PM

Originally Posted by funkendrenchman

Haha, me too, but that was 20 years ago.

Don't most of them still have a "Snowline"?

**smmokan** · 03-09-2021, 04:39 PM

Originally Posted by wolfelot

Anybody have any updated precip maps for the forecast? 24 hours ago is a long time.

It's going to change tomorrow... and Thursday... so you may as well just hold tight.

**skaredshtles** · 03-09-2021, 04:46 PM

Originally Posted by smmokan

It's going to change tomorrow... and Thursday... so you may as well just hold tight.

Yep - and the best bet, for accurate information, as the storm gets closer is NOAA, IMNSHO.

**I've seen black diamonds!** · 03-09-2021, 04:57 PM

Here's a tool for comparing models: https://www.meteoblue.com/en/weather...fcstlength=144

**adrenalated** · 03-09-2021, 05:02 PM

Click image for larger version.

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**MakersTeleMark** · 03-09-2021, 06:51 PM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

And isn’t it kinda weird that I now check the newspaper for the daily Covid case numbers instead of the snow report? Strange days.

My local paper is usually 2 days behind on their covid data. Best go to the source.

https://bao.arcgis.com/covid-19/jhu/county/08037.html

Compare with https://edition.pagesuite.com/html5/...b-0ba1cd8007a5

Off on both deaths, and cases.

**zartagen** · 03-09-2021, 06:56 PM

I was gonna weather nerd this shit, but I'll leave it to the pros at the NWS:

"The GFS has a lot more QPF than the other models, and this is probably due mainly to it predicting a much stronger surface low which would drive stronger and longer lasting moisture advection and upslope flow. On Saturday, which looks to be the most intense for snowfall, the GFS is showing saturated E flow up to around 400 mb or 20-25 kft. A barrier jet is also evident over the foothills and adjacent plains Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning by sharp northerly acceleration of winds in those areas up to around 700 mb or 10 kft, which suggests cold air damming and would also significantly increase precipitation over the foothills and urban corridor. The areas of highest, and probably most unrealistic, snowfall totals in the GFS, which have enjoyed so much attention recently, match this area of CAD and barrier jet winds very well. Should the track of the low and surface setup turn out to be more like the ECMWF predicts, the resulting reduction in moisture, upslope flow and lack of cold air damming would likely significantly reduced snowfall totals."

https://forecast.weather.gov/product...n=1&glossary=1

Tldr: GFS is going nuts, but everything has to line up perfectly, so less snow per the Euro model is looking more likely.

**Hott Butt Mud** · 03-09-2021, 07:46 PM

Gal on CBS Denver just said 60-70" "not gonna happen".

Storm's a dud boys. Pack it up.

**ASmileyFace** · 03-09-2021, 08:14 PM

Ya'll front rangers make me laugh. I post a crazy GFS run showing 80 inches in downtown Durango about a month ago and I got maybe two replies. The GFS shows like 60+ inches in the Denver area and I'm seeing unofficial articles on my facebook feed, my parents are posting model runs in our family chat and this thread is the most active it has been all season.

Weather models be doing crazy things, that is kinda what they do. I hope I eat crow on this and ya'll get your once in a decade storm, but this shit is funny.

**Soups** · 03-09-2021, 08:20 PM

It might have something to do with the fact there's about 3 million people in the Denver metropolitan area and what 20k in Durango?

**ASmileyFace** · 03-09-2021, 08:24 PM

Originally Posted by Soups

It might have something to do with the fact there's about 3 million people in the Denver metropolitan area and what 20k in Durango?

Just trying to poke a little fun at y'all but I forgot the whole world revolves around the Denver metro area. Carry on.

**bean** · 03-09-2021, 08:33 PM

Originally Posted by ASmileyFace

Weather models be doing crazy things, that is kinda what they do. I hope I eat crow on this and ya'll get your once in a decade storm, but this shit is funny.

"It's going to snow 2' in Denver during the day on Saturday with temps hovering around freezing" - 18z GFS

I'll believe it when I see tracks down Red Rocks and the Flatirons.

**The SnowShow** · 03-09-2021, 08:35 PM

Come on, I want blower face shots coming down Mt Morrison and ride switch into Red Rocks.

**tang** · 03-09-2021, 09:00 PM

Red Rocks gonna end the weekend a mogul run

**SkiBall** · 03-09-2021, 09:28 PM

This is a total misappropriation of resources and I am going to take this straight to the top.

**V.R.P** · 03-09-2021, 09:32 PM

If Red Rocks turns happen, I got first round at the Holiday Bar in town afterwards!

**EWG** · 03-09-2021, 09:43 PM

Originally Posted by V.R.P

If Red Rocks turns happen, I got first round at the Holiday Bar in town afterwards!

In.

**pfluffenmeister** · 03-10-2021, 12:35 AM

Originally Posted by SkiBall

This is a total misappropriation of resources and I am going to take this straight to the top.

I DEMAND COMPENSATION!

**shera** · 03-10-2021, 01:23 AM

Snow coming hard in Leadville now. I guess this storm is real...

**montanaskier** · 03-10-2021, 07:26 AM

Originally Posted by shera

Snow coming hard in Leadville now. I guess this storm is real...

Just moisture and lift out in front of the main event. SW flow with some embedded heavy cells.

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**smmokan** · 03-10-2021, 08:04 AM

Originally Posted by shera

Snow coming hard in Leadville now. I guess this storm is real...

Seriously? The “storm” isn’t arriving until Friday night.

**goldenboy** · 03-10-2021, 08:13 AM

Originally Posted by smmokan

Seriously? The “storm” isn’t arriving until Friday night.

$20 says last night/ today's storm drops more snow in my backyard than this weekend's upslope will. I'm just not seeing it as a mountain snow producer, but I hope it is and I hope people get to ski the foothills, too. The 6" on the powcam this morning already qualifies this storm as a major one in the context of this mediocre season.

**Foggy_Goggles** · 03-10-2021, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by smmokan

Seriously? The “storm” isn’t arriving until Friday night.

Pro tip: Actual conditions can vary from what social media and some chachi with khakis on TV tells you. It's a choice, you can either believe what you want or you can believe reality. For those interested in the later I suggest listening to those that look out the mountains from their kitchen window, reviewing real time data sources and reading forecasts from people who's full time job is this type of thing.

https://avalanche.state.co.us/foreca...zone-forecast/

https://www.cotrip.org/map.htm

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6dYKg7lMH1E