Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

[doebedoe]

I’ve mentioned this before but CAIC used to use the red spots of high in the moderate yellow to highlight this kind of snowpack. Overall moderate but spots of high danger. They got rid of it and with it the nuance of a snowpack that overall isnt very likely to slide but with pockets that are much more likely.

CAIC has alluded to (most recently at COSAW) that they will have the option to have modifiable regions in future forecasts (e.g. if they want to split off Cameron from the rest of Front Range due to different types or levels of concern -- no problem.) However, I don't expect slope-level danger ratings to be a thing -- sounds like their forecast will remain a regional product with elevation bands. With users expected to make slope-level decisions.

There are some avalanche agencies playing with such slope-specific snowpack and stability modeling. And while it is possible to do -- ground-truthing the accuracy of such models is very difficult at scale. Until that happens, using it in a public safety product is rife with difficulties.

[Kinnikinnick]

CAIC has alluded to (most recently at COSAW) that they will have the option to have modifiable regions in future forecasts (e.g. if they want to split off Cameron from the rest of Front Range due to different types or levels of concern -- no problem.) However, I don't expect slope-level danger ratings to be a thing -- sounds like their forecast will remain a regional product with elevation bands. With users expected to make slope-level decisions.

There are some avalanche agencies playing with such slope-specific snowpack and stability modeling. And while it is possible to do -- ground-truthing the accuracy of such models is very difficult at scale. Until that happens, using it in a public safety product is rife with difficulties.

That sounds challenging.

I thought that the pockets of higher danger worked and would add a warning to the yellow moderate but CAIC thought it didnt help so c’est la vie.


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[tang]

Loveland Pass slide today that took out 1-2 cars (no injuries fortunately) and also a slide on berthoud around postage stamp - fully searched and fortunately no one caught. Everyone be careful. Late March is pretty Jan-like still avy-wise. That shitty Jan high pressure really screwed us both ways.

[Danno]

Looks like I might be skiing some slush bumps at the Jane this weekend, maybe a circque lap or too. If anyone is up there and wants to connect, holler.

[fastfred]

Breck is pretty dead for a Friday all the front rangers give up cause no mad pow pow? Or is everyone in fruita and moab?

[Leshphilling77]

80 in Moab. Probably all there. Copper felt busy to me yesterday tho.

[Danno]

I was in WP till Wednesday, tried to go out to eat on Tuesday evening and it was a complete shitshow. 2 hour wait at Deno's, as one example; the line was so long at the bbq place that you couldn't even get in the door.

[MakersTeleMark]

It's really rare that MT and us share a problem, but this is exactly what we are looking at right now. Different aspect, but similar structure.

[Skistack]

Fire in Boulder around NCAR. Fuck fuck fuck.


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[Hott Butt Mud]

Yeah, that fire it kicking off right now. Westerly winds picking up this afternoon as well.

https://twitter.com/JoshKoomz/status...mYbGX8Pf7lU6Hg

https://twitter.com/mkl_joseph/statu...mYbGX8Pf7lU6Hg

[The SnowShow]

Fire in Boulder around NCAR. Fuck fuck fuck.


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Fuuuuuck!!! Is that at the mouth of Bear Canyon?

[Skistack]

Appears so. From up by the Rez.


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[Kinnikinnick]

Fucking fuck


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[bendtheski]

No bueno


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[MakersTeleMark]

If NIST gets taken out do we get another hour?

[Danno]

I'm in Winter Park so not at risk and my home isn't in the evac zone, but some serious PTSD going on for a lot of people.

But the winds aren't insane, so I think it's just PTSD, not huge risk.

[ticketchecker]

One of my nephews evac’d to his brothers place today. Both CU students


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[andy m]

I'm in the evacuation area, towards the northern end near Table Mesa Blvd, and the fire is slowly moving to the south towards Eldorado Springs. A couple of hours ago, I could see flames on a forested hillside just south of the Bear Canyon dirt road/trail. But now it is not burning there, and most of the smoke is to the south and west near the Shanahan Ridge/Mesa Trail area.

From my vantage point, the fire appeared to start just north of the Bear Canyon road and just south of NCAR, in an area that is mostly grassland. There were some gusty winds at that time, which spread the fire to the south quickly. Fortunately, the winds are calm right now. There have been numerous small planes flying past and dropping fire retardant. Apparently there are lots of firefighters setting up "wet lines" where the fire has come close to homes. I saw a news video from a helicopter earlier, and the fire came fairly close to homes along the open space boundary just north of the Cragmoor trailhead -- but the fire has moved south and west from there.

[The SnowShow]

Obv hope for the best for people and their homes but I’m also super bummed about that beautiful forest there burning. Such nice trails to hike.

[dub2]

Corn harvest was ripe in the CB bc this weekend

[Danno]

Wicked slush bumps at the Jane.

[Elkhound Odin]

It was nice not to get my teeth rattled out in Copper Bowl


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[The SnowShow]

Record high in Vail today: 63°

[smmokan]

Can the Forest Service (and/or Governor Polis) just go ahead and implement a stage 1 fire ban for the spring, summer and fall in Colorado?

[Leshphilling77]

60 in dillon yikes. had some fun afternoon skiing today but this doesn't seem good i dunno