Colorado Weather Discussion Thread

**PowTrees** · 11-09-2009, 08:54 AM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

remains quiet til the end of next week. That looks like another front range producer at this point to me but it is still a long way off.

I need to find some time to go read up on jet stream's affect on our weather, but haven't so I'll just ask. How much is the jet stream affecting us? My first reaction which probably wrong (yes I have no training or specific knowledge regarding weather, just beginning to learn, enjoy watching it...) is that the Jet stream is maybe far north and not in position to pull down moisture from the NW which brings nice snowy weather to Vail??

The good side of this is, I'm probably free this weekend to go follow the snow if it's somewhere relatively close to Vail. An upsloper would be better than nothing.

**montanaskier** · 11-09-2009, 10:09 AM

Jet plays a very important part in weather and storm flows. High pressure has been and will be the dominant feature for awhile. This weekend looks ok right now but I wouldn't hold out hope for a huge dump. It will be colder and we will probably see some snow, but I don't expect a huge event.

It'll come, it is still early. It has been 60 degrees two years in a row on Thanksgiving.

**Name Redacted** · 11-09-2009, 10:15 AM

Originally Posted by PowTrees

I need to find some time to go read up on jet stream's affect on our weather, but haven't so I'll just ask. How much is the jet stream affecting us? My first reaction which probably wrong (yes I have no training or specific knowledge regarding weather, just beginning to learn, enjoy watching it...) is that the Jet stream is maybe far north and not in position to pull down moisture from the NW which brings nice snowy weather to Vail??

The good side of this is, I'm probably free this weekend to go follow the snow if it's somewhere relatively close to Vail. An upsloper would be better than nothing.

Here's a link to a good wind tool. Jet stream is usually pretty high, you can change the altitude.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/winds/

Right now it's looking like we are still in more of a summer pattern where the Jet really isn't dragging that cool arctic air mass down to us yet. Still pretty Westerly winds and warm air. This could be because of "The Nino" or it just isn't winter yet.

Looking OK for later in the week. With the W>E flow it could be better for the west side of the Divide.

PNW is gonna get hooked up again it looks like. Might be a good year up there if this pattern hold up.

Weather.gov and Wunderground.com are some of my favorite sites if you want to play around with weather stuff. You can definitely get more technical but these are pretty user friendly. Great learning tools if you are interested.

**montanaskier** · 11-09-2009, 01:48 PM

What is funny is that a typical El Nino pattern is the suckage for th PNW...my guess is that it is just early and that the pattern will shift in early Dec.....I hope.

**montanaskier** · 11-09-2009, 09:21 PM

this disturbance end of the weeks looks ok, but another strong ridge next week with above average temps. I don't see any pattern breaks thru Nov.

**fish** · 11-10-2009, 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by montanaskier

What is funny is that a typical El Nino pattern is the suckage for th PNW...my guess is that it is just early and that the pattern will shift in early Dec.....I hope.

well fuck you too!

**gratzo** · 11-10-2009, 08:58 AM

The jet stream is the pipeline for our storms. This fast-moving ribbon of air is generally located at about 30,000-35,000ft at the junction of colder air to the north and warmer air to the south. During our summer, this junction is further north, so the jet stream is further north and most of the stormy weather is up in Canada (and we're left with the daily hit-or-miss thunderstorms, not the 1-2 day storms typical of winter). In the winter, the junction of cold vs. warm air moves south over the U.S., as does the jet stream. Many times in an El Nino year, the jet stream will be very far south, dumping on the southern California mountains while leaving us high and dry.

This is a good link to show the typical jet stream positions in an El Nino year and a La Nina year:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...nawinter.shtml

Also, this week looks better than the previous week. A decent storm favoring the central and northern mountains should hit on Thursday night, and a strong and slower storm should take the southern road on Sunday(ish), favoring the southern mountains and front range/plains.

**^^^** · 11-10-2009, 02:42 PM

Here's my predictions on the weather:

It's going to snow this winter, end of season totals will be around average. If it doesn't snow that much early season, then probably the latter half of the season will be snowier than usual to make up the difference. There will be dry spells (2 weeks at a time), followed by a period of stormy weather (couple of storms). It's November, usually means more sunny days than snowy days. It's also still Fall. We'll probably get one good 2 day storm this month, but much of the rest of the month will be dry and not very exciting. Most will be bitching about the crappy winter we're having by December 1st and then it'll snow a lot by the first weekend of December. Christmas week through the first week of January we'll get a series of storms, building up our base and making it feel like winter. Then comes the 2 week dry spell where the snow turns to crap and people start bitching about the weather again and how teh Global Warmingz is affecting our weather here in Colorado. People will also bitch about the lack of snow and that winter is basically over. Then by mid-late January it'll dump again and people will be amazed at how sick this winter has been so far..."holy shit, what a winter, I can't believe we've gotten this much snow!!!..." Same pattern for rest of season. Dust layer comes in around early March. In the end most places are around average for snow totals, some places a bit higher while other places a bit below average. In the end it snows this winter. End of story. The end.

gunit130 · 11-10-2009, 02:56 PM

^^^ I don't know what the fuck you are talking about.

We all know that it doesn't snow in Colorado. Period. End of story. The end.

**Name Redacted** · 11-10-2009, 05:42 PM

Originally Posted by ^^^

Here's my predictions on the weather:

It's going to snow this winter, end of season totals will be around average. If it doesn't snow that much early season, then probably the latter half of the season will be snowier than usual to make up the difference. There will be dry spells (2 weeks at a time), followed by a period of stormy weather (couple of storms). It's November, usually means more sunny days than snowy days. It's also still Fall. We'll probably get one good 2 day storm this month, but much of the rest of the month will be dry and not very exciting. Most will be bitching about the crappy winter we're having by December 1st and then it'll snow a lot by the first weekend of December. Christmas week through the first week of January we'll get a series of storms, building up our base and making it feel like winter. Then comes the 2 week dry spell where the snow turns to crap and people start bitching about the weather again and how teh Global Warmingz is affecting our weather here in Colorado. People will also bitch about the lack of snow and that winter is basically over. Then by mid-late January it'll dump again and people will be amazed at how sick this winter has been so far..."holy shit, what a winter, I can't believe we've gotten this much snow!!!..." Same pattern for rest of season. Dust layer comes in around early March. In the end most places are around average for snow totals, some places a bit higher while other places a bit below average. In the end it snows this winter. End of story. The end.

You know how many times I have typed out a post almost verbatim to yours and then decided to delete it because I thought it would be lost on the masses? It's in the double digits.

Complaining about the weather is pointless, you can't change it any other way than to move somewhere else.

I also love to hear the difference in peoples perceptions on how last winter was or the winter before or the current winter. People who only ski inbounds or just don't know where to go or have only skied on shitty days will always say it sucks. I used to go into work and here everyone bitch and moan about how bad a winter we were having. On the same day I had skied knee deep all day long. People even bitched about Bakers record season....

It's all a matter of perception.

**^^^** · 11-10-2009, 06:41 PM

Originally Posted by shredgnar

You know how many times I have typed out a post almost verbatim to yours and then decided to delete it because I thought it would be lost on the masses? It's in the double digits.

Complaining about the weather is pointless, you can't change it any other way than to move somewhere else.

I also love to hear the difference in peoples perceptions on how last winter was or the winter before or the current winter. People who only ski inbounds or just don't know where to go or have only skied on shitty days will always say it sucks. I used to go into work and here everyone bitch and moan about how bad a winter we were having. On the same day I had skied knee deep all day long. People even bitched about Bakers record season....

It's all a matter of perception.

Perception is everything in regards to how "good" or "bad" a ski season is when talking about snowfall. I remember in 2001-2002 we had a slightly below average winter for snowfall. I came out of that winter thinking we had a kickass winter as my timing was right on when it came to hitting all of the storms. Just about every day I got out it was during or directly after a storm and the below average season felt like a banner year to me. Also, seasons where the storms are smaller and more frequent seem to be better years than the seasons where we have big dumps followed by long periods of dry weather. We have an early winter (September-November) and everyone automatically thinks it's a banner year just because it snowed early on in the season.

I personally try not to get all wrapped up in the weather predictions (long term, short term, etc.). It stresses you out when a storm doesn't deliver and it's really easy to get caught up in the "This winter sucks because it hasn't snowed in November yet and it's already the 10th!".

It's going to snow sometime during the winter and conditions are going to be epic on certain days throughout the winter regardless if it's an El Nino year, a La Nina year, or whatever else the weather nerds hypothosize about. A "great" winter is usually due to timing, not total snowfall. If you happen to ski during or right after every good storm then of course the winter is going to feel like it's EPIC. If you miss most storms and it doesn't snow until Thanksgiving then it's going to feel like a pretty shitty winter.

**skiberly** · 11-10-2009, 07:25 PM

Originally Posted by ^^^

Perception is everything in regards to how "good" or "bad" a ski season is when talking about snowfall. I remember in 2001-2002 we had a slightly below average winter for snowfall. I came out of that winter thinking we had a kickass winter as my timing was right on when it came to hitting all of the storms. Just about every day I got out it was during or directly after a storm and the below average season felt like a banner year to me.

Originally Posted by ^^^

A "great" winter is usually due to timing, not total snowfall.

That's how i felt about last year. I would just laugh quietly to myself when people complained about what a shitty winter we were having. I didn't ski anything but pow

**Name Redacted** · 11-10-2009, 09:09 PM

Originally Posted by ^^^

I personally try not to get all wrapped up in the weather predictions (long term, short term, etc.). It stresses you out when a storm doesn't deliver and it's really easy to get caught up in the "This winter sucks because it hasn't snowed in November yet and it's already the 10th!".

I'm kinda a weather nerd just because I got sick of the weatherman blowing smoke up your ass about every storm that rolls through. Plus I have some training on the subject so I like to practice to keep sharp. I follow the weather now. Tone down expectations to half of what is predicted unless I see a reason to get excited.

I ski A-basin area a lot therefore I'm used to getting skunked. So my hopes are never very high, but I usually know how to turn a 4" report into double digits

**cmsummit** · 11-10-2009, 09:10 PM

Originally Posted by ^^^

Perception is everything in regards to how "good" or "bad" a ski season is when talking about snowfall. I remember in 2001-2002 we had a slightly below average winter for snowfall.

In terms of percent normal snowpack, that winter was actually well below average. At the end of April, most statewide snowpack levels were in the 40% - 60% of average range. I know this because as a whitewater kayaker, I was keeping a close eye on the snowpack and trying to predict how the spring runoff would pan out. The Arkansas River which will typically peak in the 2.5K - 3.0K cfs range (for a normal year) at Nathrop, peaked at 550cfs.

Part of that was due to the extremely dry spring we had, but the meager winter snowpack didn't help any.

No '01/'02 winter repeats!

**Name Redacted** · 11-10-2009, 09:12 PM

Originally Posted by cmsummit

In terms of percent normal snowpack, that winter was actually well below average. At the end of April, most statewide snowpack levels were in the 40% - 60% of average range. I know this because as a whitewater kayaker, I was keeping a close eye on the snowpack and trying to predict how the spring runoff would pan out. The Arkansas which will typically peak in the 2.5K - 3.0K cfs range (for a normal year) at Nathrop, peaked at 550cfs. Part of that was due to the extremely dry spring we had, but the meager winter snowpack didn't help any.

No '01/'02 winter repeats!

I was in WA skiing mt Baker and they got something like 856" that year. I remember calling all my friends in summit and rubbing it in. Basin never got over a 48" base

**FiveLarge** · 11-11-2009, 01:56 AM

Originally Posted by skiberly

That's how i felt about last year. I would just laugh quietly to myself when people complained about what a shitty winter we were having. I didn't ski anything but pow

Except I don't think last year was a shitty year in any context - most areas were at or above average in CO...

**montanaskier** · 11-11-2009, 07:30 AM

the past two winters have been off the charts. My last winter in MT was stupid good. I've been spoiled a bit for sure.

The science behind weather is interesting to me.

5-8 this weekend is my guess.

**^^^** · 11-11-2009, 08:44 AM

I think the science is interesting as well. I like to know why and how things happen. We all have a little "weather nerd" in us, afterall our sport depends on weather, so why wouldn't we be tuned into the weather. I just try not to get too caught up in it.

**F.D.V.** · 11-11-2009, 09:34 AM

Definetly not shitty in any sense of the word, but, the season was different.
My home resort got pounded with upslope flow almost every storm, which was odd. This led to some scary avi. conditions as well as a definite lack of blower powder and coverage.

Still, a decent season.

Originally Posted by spthomson

Except I don't think last year was a shitty year in any context - most areas were at or above average in CO...

**PowTrees** · 11-11-2009, 10:13 AM

"West northwest wind" The NWS is predicting this for Vail Friday night. I like to hear Northwest for snow in Vail

The attached jet stream prediction for saturday morning is looking much better for moisture than the last storm??

**F.D.V.** · 11-11-2009, 10:40 AM

Two main bodies of moisture are set to get pulled into the jet stream this week.

First round will come onto the coast near L.A. (at least, that is what my latest model gave me). This should favor the southwestern mountains along the continental divide. 8" should be what most areas will get, 12" if you are lucky and on a leeward slope.

Second round is due on Saturday and Sunday. Models are all over the place for this batch of moisture, but, it looks as if it will hit N. New Mexico and S. Colorado favoring the eastern San Juans, Sangres, and all the other terrain in south central and south east Colorado.

Since the first storm will get sucked into the jetstream from the south, then odds are the southern part of the state will be favored for round 1.

Originally Posted by PowTrees

"West northwest wind" The NWS is predicting this for Vail Friday night. I like to hear Northwest for snow in Vail

The attached jet stream prediction for saturday morning is looking much better for moisture than the last storm??

**gratzo** · 11-11-2009, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by ^^^

I think the science is interesting as well. I like to know why and how things happen. We all have a little "weather nerd" in us, afterall our sport depends on weather, so why wouldn't we be tuned into the weather. I just try not to get too caught up in it.

Since we all have some weather nerd in us, what kind of information or website would you really like to see on the www's to help find the good snow? Are the current sites good enough (CAIC, NWS, model data sites...)?

As a meteorologist who loves snow and deep stashes, I started up a weekly weather report for Colorado that is entertaining, educational, and hopefully pretty accurate. The report used to be just an email, but now I am putting them online here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/ I kept track of my accuracy from 2008-2009, available here: http://www.coloradopowderforecast.com/keep-me-honest/ Please sign up for the email on the right side of the page.

There are a lot of folks on this forum that are amazingly knowledgeable about weather and I a learn a ton here almost everyday. Just trying to figure out how to develop a website that would provide the weather & snow info we need so we know when to pack the snorkel!

**DAFTC** · 11-11-2009, 11:14 AM

Originally Posted by F.D.V.

(at least, that is what my latest model gave me).

Don't know exactly where "weather nerds" in this thread already look (I've seen some noaa links in prev. posts) so this might be a repost...I'll admit to not having read every page in this thread... but one interesting source for a slightly more detailed breakdown of events (though not forecasts), i.e. SWE, depth, etc. from data-reconciled models is:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html

Similar stuff in neat animated form here:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

And a bit of forecasting is here:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/forecasts/

And, yeah, it's all about perception.

**DAFTC** · 11-11-2009, 11:18 AM

Gratzo, that's nice work...will pass that along.

**gratzo** · 11-11-2009, 11:18 AM

By the way, the models aren't doing too well (i.e. not very consistent) predicting the two upcoming storms. BUT, it looks like some good snows for much of the state on Thursday night through Friday afternoon, and again from about midday Saturday through Sunday afternoon.

The Thursday night > Friday storm could throw down about 0.75" of liquid (maybe 1" in lucky areas). The temperatures around 10k are a little warm for efficient snow production (-5C north, -2.5C south), so I would guess at ratios around 13:1 (snow:liquid) with this storm. That puts the favored areas at 8-12" - not too shabby. I think the winners could be Steamboat and the Elk mountains. Even after the cold front passes late Thursday night, I'm not confident that the winds will turn to the northwest. I think they'll stay west or just a shade south of west. This direction can be good for Steamboat and the Elks, and Beaver Creek, but is generally not so good for Vail, Summit Co., or the front range.

The Saturday > Sunday storm is much colder, with temperatures at 10k by Sunday morning between -10C to -15C. This could lead to more snow with less moisture. This storm could be similar to the halloween storm of two weeks ago - hit or miss in the mountains west of the divide (a few inches to maybe 12"+), and lots of snow on the east side of the divide and the plains. The models are still not handling this storm very well (big differences between the different models and with each new 'run' of the model every 6 or 12 hours), but I would image that they will trend to make this storm a little stronger and further south.

Thoughts? I'll write this up here later on tonight with some graphics: www.coloradopowderforecast.com