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Type: Posts; User: Kevo

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  1. Replies
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    Fuck. Just unimaginable for Jim and the rest of...

    Fuck. Just unimaginable for Jim and the rest of their family.

    I've been a HIlaree fan since Warren Miller's Storm way back in the day. That South Georgia Island segment absolutely blew my mind as...
  2. Replies
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    ^what is up with the delta between what mortgage...

    ^what is up with the delta between what mortgage news daily reports and the rates that you can quote?

    Would you be able to lock at 6.5% on a 30 year today? Would you need to add some broker margin...
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    Def no problem, and you had some good reasoning....

    Def no problem, and you had some good reasoning.

    In general, this whole thread has me convinced that it's basically impossible to know what's going to happen.

    I'm of the opinion that we're...
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    Officially north of 7% on a 30 year. 427782 ...

    Officially north of 7% on a 30 year.
    427782

    Will be interesting to see what happens as the tide goes out.
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    Collectively, we went from "everything is priced...

    Collectively, we went from "everything is priced in" and "history shows it's profitable to buy at the beginning of a war" and "it's a good time to jump into bonds (in June)" to "we're headed for a...
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    June lows are being tested. Shitty IPOs are...

    June lows are being tested. Shitty IPOs are getting slaughtered.

    Good to see things coming back to reality. I'll be aggressively increasing my automated DCA if VTI breaks under $180.
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    Crazy up and down moves today. Huge volatility. ...

    Crazy up and down moves today. Huge volatility.

    Re: financial advisors. Flat fee fiduciary is the absolute gold standard if you can find it.

    Lots of people claim to be fiduciaries without being...
  8. Replies
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    You should research expense ratios and load fees...

    You should research expense ratios and load fees to understand what you're getting into before meeting with a "financial advisor". That industry is rampant with seedy bullshit.

    Make sure to stay...
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    November 2021 would have been a great time to go...

    November 2021 would have been a great time to go to cash for anyone with a crystal ball.

    I kinda hope Cono Este is correct. For anyone not retiring in the immediate future another 25% drop would...
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    Thanks for the info, everyone! I'll loop back...

    Thanks for the info, everyone! I'll loop back around once we figure out what we're doing. I'm so stoked to ski BC. It's been almost 5 years for me and my GF has never skied in BC.
  11. Replies
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    My prediction - Guessing JPow goes 75 basis...

    My prediction - Guessing JPow goes 75 basis points tomorrow and gives guidance of "possible data driven decision for another 50 or 75 bps raise before the end of the year."

    Real interest rates...
  12. Thread: View right now

    by Kevo
    Replies
    13,704
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    1,369,503

    426772 Nice smooth flying this AM before the...

    426772

    Nice smooth flying this AM before the wind picked up.
  13. Replies
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    ^Sweet! Thanks. He's already started to sell...

    ^Sweet! Thanks.

    He's already started to sell off other skis. Looks like he'll only have the Enforcer Free 104s and 110s this season. I think that'll be a pretty solid quiver of two for him here at...
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    Thanks dudes. I set a Google shopping alert and...

    Thanks dudes. I set a Google shopping alert and my dad was able to find a pair of 186 Enforcer 104s for a steal this off season.

    Think it is worth going on the line or +1 or +2 on the mount? He...
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    426633

    426633
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    I think the rent increase phenomena can be...

    I think the rent increase phenomena can be attributed to several different factors.

    The eviction moratorium artificially reduced the supply of rental units for a year and a half. Many people...
  17. Thread: Intuition liners

    by Kevo
    Replies
    837
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    292,379

    Thanks everyone. Based on the feedback of the...

    Thanks everyone.

    Based on the feedback of the pro tours not being great, I decided to replace with a stock Tecnica Cochise C.A.S. liner.

    I don't hate the C.A.S. liner- I did some digging and...
  18. Thread: Intuition liners

    by Kevo
    Replies
    837
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    292,379

    Hey all, hoping for some maggot advice. I...

    Hey all, hoping for some maggot advice.

    I have a pair of 20/21 Tecnica Cochise Pro 130s with somewhere north of 150 days on them. The shell fits perfectly after some punching and grinding and the...
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    USPS was doing better for a while, but a recent...

    USPS was doing better for a while, but a recent shipment from CA to ID is on a fucking wild track. Was supposed to be 3 day select.

    September 12, 2022, 11:09 pm
    Departed USPS Regional Facility...
  20. Replies
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    In a month or two if the stock market is down...

    In a month or two if the stock market is down it'll be "why the writing was on the wall all year for testing new lows in the stock market".

    If the market is up despite rising rates it'll be...
  21. Replies
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    Core CPI (doesn't include food and energy) is not...

    Core CPI (doesn't include food and energy) is not going in the right duration. It is up month over month and accelerating compared to August and July- https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
    ...
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    Damn. That's a long time. I'm going on a...

    Damn. That's a long time.

    I'm going on a Canadian hut trip with a couple fellow Americans in January. One of the people on the trip has a DUI from 2008 and a minor in possession charge from 2006....
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    I think the idea is that the stock market rose in...

    I think the idea is that the stock market rose in the 90s and 2000s while the federal reserve was raising rates.
  24. Thread: Doggie stoke

    by Kevo
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    1,182,298

    We did a 17 mile trail run with our pups for...

    We did a 17 mile trail run with our pups for Labor Day. It was hot but the pups did great and luckily there was ample water the whole way.

    425766

    425767

    425768

    425769
  25. Replies
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    In the fallout from 2008 a lot of HELOCs were...

    In the fallout from 2008 a lot of HELOCs were cancelled, along with other forms of revolving credit. Credit cards were cancelled or greatly reduced, etc.

    It's a good lesson never to rely on...
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    Welp, inventory is up a bit and 30 year mortgage...

    Welp, inventory is up a bit and 30 year mortgage interest rates are north of 6% but a house on my street went for sale two days ago for 50% more than 2020 pricing and it is already under contract.
    ...
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    I run 108 cm voyagers with a 120 cm crampon on my...

    I run 108 cm voyagers with a 120 cm crampon on my DW 112. Works fine.
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    IMHO, that road is way too busy for that to be a...

    IMHO, that road is way too busy for that to be a $40mm property. Now that it is paved Google maps will start to route significant traffic through there.
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    I left a terrible employer when I was in my mid...

    I left a terrible employer when I was in my mid 20s. It was the US subsidiary of a German company. The US operation was extremely toxic and run two people- one who was incompetent, the other who was...
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    The oil industry only gets $90 billion a year in...

    The oil industry only gets $90 billion a year in subsidies from the federal government.



    You're correct. Writing off federal student loans will not be directly paid for by taxes. We're writing...
  31. Replies
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    That's actually not accurate. "In 2020, out of...

    That's actually not accurate.

    "In 2020, out of 176.2 million individuals and married couples who could file a tax return, about 144.5 million of them actually filed a tax return. Of the 144.5...
  32. Replies
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    That is my guess. We had our first big selloff...

    That is my guess. We had our first big selloff post Covid and then a lot of money moved back in after June 16th.

    The realities of higher interest rates might let more air out.

    I'm wondering if...
  33. Dr. Mo Brown died this week....

    Dr. Mo Brown died this week.

    It's such a huge loss to the Teton Valley community. He put both my GF and my dad back together. So sorry for his family and his coworkers and for whatever he was...
  34. Replies
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    Yeah, they've been doing one off forgiveness for...

    Yeah, they've been doing one off forgiveness for certain for profit colleges. It's good, but it doesn't fix the years of life that the affected people lost, unable to quality for home loans.. The...
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    I graduated high school in 2004 and college in...

    I graduated high school in 2004 and college in 2008. After a short stint of wildland firefighting I tried to find my way into the business world (my degree) in 2010 and the post financial crisis job...
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    Hi BC mags! My GF and I will be making a...

    Hi BC mags! My GF and I will be making a pilgrimage to the Battle Abbey Lodge this coming January.

    We're driving from the Tetons to Golden, which means we'll driving up the Columbia Valley. We're...
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    There is an entire generation that was sold a...

    There is an entire generation that was sold a false narrative of "you can be anything you want so long as you go to college". It sucks that the idea was sold without any kind of guidelines to people...
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    Mom's second husband's estate and a the American...

    Mom's second husband's estate and a the American taxpayers finishing off paying for a $35k per year out of state unmarketable degree.

    Sounds like the American dream.
  39. Replies
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    18% of new construction buyers backed out of...

    18% of new construction buyers backed out of contracts in July, up from 8% a year ago.


    424651
  40. Replies
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    I should have said "strongly correlated", but you...

    I should have said "strongly correlated", but you got the idea.

    RE: The cancer analogy- if the entity with the press release about the new treatment for cancer is also one of the primary entities...
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    Oh boy. They're going to publish a watchlist....

    Oh boy. They're going to publish a watchlist. That'll help.

    How much higher is tuition going to be next year than this year? I'd bet it'll be perfectly correlated to how much more the max federal...
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    Absolutely insane to forgive student loans...

    Absolutely insane to forgive student loans without fixing the underlying problem that allowed them to balloon in the first place.

    Also insane to make tradespeople and blue collar workers pay for...
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    The houses being built in my neighborhood had...

    The houses being built in my neighborhood had buyers under contract before they started. I bet the new owners are a bit worried seeing existing homes sitting for a couple hundred thousand less than...
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    Zillow doesn't have an estimate for me, but I...

    Zillow doesn't have an estimate for me, but I believe that my home value has dropped by roughly 30% since April based on comps. In April a mediocre SFH in my neighborhood sold in a few days for...
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    Thanks for the info! No idea what white or...

    Thanks for the info! No idea what white or offwhite we are going with. Yes, the house has some light knock down texture on the walls and the painter dudes are going to fix anything egregious....
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    The idea of cutting down trees within 10' of a...

    The idea of cutting down trees within 10' of a house for defensible space is somewhat laughable. The radiant heat from a tree torching 50 or more feet from a house is enough to make a house combust....
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    IMHO, the OG Deathwish is what you are looking...

    IMHO, the OG Deathwish is what you are looking for. It's the best mellow pow day ski that I've ever been on. It effortlessly turns and pivots and smears even at low speed on mellow terrain but it is...
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    Thanks everyone. I think the price seems...

    Thanks everyone. I think the price seems reasonable too and they are estimating 3-4 days of time for 3 experienced dudes, so in the range of 12 days of work for one person. It would probably take me...
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    What is a reasonable cost for painting the...

    What is a reasonable cost for painting the interior of a 3k square foot 4 bedroom 3.5 bath two story house with some vaulted ceilings?

    The guys who stained my house quoted me $5k including...
  50. Replies
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    Following up on my house staining question to say...

    Following up on my house staining question to say thanks for the advice. The crew of 3 guys just finished after a half day of prep and 3 days of hand staining the entire house. One primary semi-solid...
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