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06-15-2020, 05:44 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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LOLz
LOLz
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05-16-2020, 10:18 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Gonna be a bloodbath. I've been through it a...
Gonna be a bloodbath. I've been through it a couple times before, but prolly not of this scope. And I fear this time more retail sites will become ghost towns compared to prior retail recessions....
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05-14-2020, 02:10 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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The new big tech corporatists are every bit as...
The new big tech corporatists are every bit as keen on amassing power and wealth. Indeed, they are better at it, and there's no enforcement of anti-trust laws to slow them down.
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05-12-2020, 01:12 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Huh? Are you suggesting that markets are governed...
Huh? Are you suggesting that markets are governed by natural law?
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05-06-2020, 01:17 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Gotta agree with the Bunny on this. Until 2008,...
Gotta agree with the Bunny on this. Until 2008, the Fed's chief mission was to curb inflation, but that changed in late 2008, when the Fed pulled out the stops to thwart a possible debt-deflation...
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05-06-2020, 09:25 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Yeah, notwithstanding Fed printing money go...
Yeah, notwithstanding Fed printing money go brrrrrr, there will be post-Covid 19 augmentation of deflationary pressures that have been there for awhile (e.g., race-to-the-bottom global cheap labor)....
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05-06-2020, 09:10 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Yeah, at my age, asset preservation is high...
Yeah, at my age, asset preservation is high priority. Glad and lucky I did some profit taking via rebalancing a couple times a year starting in 2017, thus starting 2020 with a good chunk of cash, CDs...
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04-29-2020, 10:21 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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You posted numerous times that smart guys don't...
You posted numerous times that smart guys don't pay off their homestead debt because keeping the debt in place frees up cash to make more easy $$$ in the stock market. Did you go back and delete all...
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04-29-2020, 10:20 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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That has been the long trend for a decade....
That has been the long trend for a decade. Covid-19 accelerates it.
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04-29-2020, 10:17 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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This from the guy who has been telling us for...
This from the guy who has been telling us for years to crank up the debt to embellish your position in the stock market. #ChangeTuneBunny
That's not the headline. Yes, of fucking course, many... -
04-29-2020, 09:52 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Cherry pick headline. Rents for all brick &...
Cherry pick headline. Rents for all brick & mortar retail will decline -- for Starbucks and Flo's Hair Cottage and Skip's Vacuum Repair, if the latter two survive.
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04-26-2020, 04:46 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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Because the 70% are consumers (apples) and the...
Because the 70% are consumers (apples) and the 10% are owners (oranges)? What point are you trying to make?
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04-23-2020, 09:45 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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Yes, of course, and that things would be so much...
Yes, of course, and that things would be so much better but for the CHY-nuh virus, freedom-hating Democrat Governors and brown-skinned rapists and murderers taking away jobs from real Americans.
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04-17-2020, 09:17 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
I'm talking about a subset of small biz, to wit,...
I'm talking about a subset of small biz, to wit, brick & mortar retail, which has been dying a slow death for a decade. Covid-19 abruptly and acutely will accelerate the B&M retail death spiral. As I...
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04-16-2020, 07:06 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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TGR contrarian view: Big die off on Main Street...
TGR contrarian view: Big die off on Main Street comin', market share goes to Amazon and other big e-tail. Yesterday I talked to a UPS driver and a FedEx driver, both of whom described the last month...
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04-14-2020, 03:22 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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Really? I haven't seen a CD rate over 2.75% since...
Really? I haven't seen a CD rate over 2.75% since the 1990s.
ETA: Looks to be a special product, not a traditional CD:... -
04-14-2020, 02:56 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
AIG defaulted on tens of thousands of GICs. Feds...
AIG defaulted on tens of thousands of GICs. Feds bailed out those contracts, but that might not happen next time.
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04-14-2020, 02:42 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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until the carrier goes into receviership, which...
until the carrier goes into receviership, which sometimes happens
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04-14-2020, 02:38 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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$2 trillion++ burst of socialism = inflationary...
$2 trillion++ burst of socialism = inflationary pressure. But we aint gonna see double digit interest rates in my lifetime cuz central banks have figured out how to curb inflation with monetary...
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04-14-2020, 12:27 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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This. If and when 10-year Treasury notes go to 3%...
This. If and when 10-year Treasury notes go to 3% or above, a shitload of retired boomer money will start moving out of equities
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04-14-2020, 09:21 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
The computers are afraid of missing the bottom...
The computers are afraid of missing the bottom and institutional investors find some solace in formation of pacts of NE governors and Left Coast governors.
We bought some when the Dow was 19K as... -
04-14-2020, 08:50 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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apparently so
apparently so
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04-09-2020, 11:06 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
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Largely true, although the weird tracking of...
Largely true, although the weird tracking of corporate bonds and equity markets -- both the up and the down -- kinda threw a wrench in the classic 100 - your age mix. We have been more conservative...
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04-09-2020, 10:40 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
60+ age group should have had large...
60+ age group should have had large cash/CD/T-bill position before the Covid-19 crash. 60+ boomers who bought into equity markets after 2008 and failed to rebalance via profit taking every year or so...
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04-04-2020, 11:52 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
Oh, okay, so what's left is some subset of...
Oh, okay, so what's left is some subset of institutional investors who bought paper from the bank, i.e., willingly took on the risk with expectations of a return? If so, that makes sense.
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04-04-2020, 11:38 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
AFAIK, bail-in was never more than a thought...
AFAIK, bail-in was never more than a thought experiment discussion among academic nerds.
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04-03-2020, 10:56 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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Good idea. Restrict to food, medicine, rent and...
Good idea. Restrict to food, medicine, rent and other equivalent essentials.
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04-03-2020, 10:55 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
You are conflating fed govt debt and private...
You are conflating fed govt debt and private debt. Private debt resulting from the Toilet Paper Panic of 2020 will be big, although not as big as the aftermath of the 2008 crash, and much of it will...
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04-03-2020, 10:49 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
So, to be clear, you favor collecting taxes from...
So, to be clear, you favor collecting taxes from working class people to relieve student debt of a guy making $1,000,000 a year on Wall Street? Have you actually thought this out?
Jesus Christ,... -
04-03-2020, 10:43 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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So, the federal government buys the notes for...
So, the federal government buys the notes for market value and then forgives the notes? That would be constitutional, but bizarrely expensive and likely politically impossible. Those of us who worked...
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04-03-2020, 10:28 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
So, you are unable or unwilling to answer my...
So, you are unable or unwilling to answer my question, so you construct a strawman, eh? Again, Bunny, how can the government mandate cancellation of private debt without paying compensation to the...
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04-03-2020, 10:24 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
So, just how does government mandated...
So, just how does government mandated cancellation of private debt work? Under the 5th Amendment, lenders would be owed compensation equal to the amount of the canceled debt -- or maybe more. It...
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04-03-2020, 08:24 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
- Views
- 1,947,007
LOLz
LOLz
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04-01-2020, 03:04 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
You don't get around much, eh? Denmark's secret...
You don't get around much, eh? Denmark's secret to happiness: low expectations; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/11013715/The-key-to-happiness-have-low-expectations.html
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04-01-2020, 02:53 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
- Views
- 1,947,007
You have broken Happiness Rule #1: Low...
You have broken Happiness Rule #1: Low Expectations. Vibes to ya
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04-01-2020, 12:40 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
- Views
- 1,947,007
Uh, well, we will know within a few weeks after a...
Uh, well, we will know within a few weeks after a significant number of people take the antibody test.
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03-31-2020, 12:08 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
Sorta. CARES Act loan borrowers cannot issue...
Sorta. CARES Act loan borrowers cannot issue dividends or make other capital distributions "with respect to common stock" until loan is fully paid and for 12 months thereafter. The provision is in...
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03-30-2020, 11:01 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
zing!
zing!
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03-30-2020, 10:51 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
- Views
- 1,947,007
Cross talking happening here. Delta fleet does...
Cross talking happening here. Delta fleet does not use avgas, of course
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03-27-2020, 10:57 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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That is fucked. HC workers in regular contact...
That is fucked. HC workers in regular contact with patients should be the highest priority for testing.
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03-27-2020, 10:44 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
- Views
- 1,947,007
Oh yeah, good chance we're heading to all time...
Oh yeah, good chance we're heading to all time high small biz BK filings. Some small biz LLCs and corps w/o principal personal guaranties will forego BK and just close their doors, but that...
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03-22-2020, 10:11 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
I spoke with a brick & mortar retail owner on...
I spoke with a brick & mortar retail owner on Friday. He had a nice niche cash cow biz for years, but has decided to shut down and retire before he leaks any more oil. For whatever reason, his shop's...
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03-20-2020, 03:13 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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That sounds absurdly optimistic from my view...
That sounds absurdly optimistic from my view (representing small businesses). I won't be surprised if small biz bankruptcies are double the wake of the 2008 crash -- or worse. Hell, we might be at or...
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03-02-2020, 03:27 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
- Views
- 1,947,007
Alas, Hugh Conway, we hardly knew ye
Alas, Hugh Conway, we hardly knew ye
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03-02-2020, 01:57 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
Labor participation on corporate supervisory...
Labor participation on corporate supervisory boards of large (>2,000 employees) in Germany is required by law, not conferred by ownership. The supervisory board's power over corporate affairs is...
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02-24-2020, 04:38 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
Winner: Best Answer of the Month I'm glad I...
Winner: Best Answer of the Month
I'm glad I sold a chunk of securities in January, although now I wish I would have sold more. -
01-29-2020, 12:15 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
IME, ultra-low fee broad market funds outperform...
IME, ultra-low fee broad market funds outperform (net costs and fees) everything else in the long term, unless you get lucky with a flyer. Re immediate withdrawal, that's a tax issue. General rule is...
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10-05-2018, 09:29 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
Depends
Depends
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02-09-2018, 10:09 AM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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- 1,947,007
Other than Berkshire, what are those "something...
Other than Berkshire, what are those "something like Berkshire?" Historically, low cost index funds have performed long term better than all but a small handful of higher cost managed stock funds....
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02-08-2018, 06:49 PM
Thread: Is the stock market going to tank?
by GeezerSteve- Replies
- 18,221
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https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/5...
https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51ZFRZP874L._SX329_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/51ZK0VRZSTL._SX314_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg
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