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  1. Replies
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    A few weeks ago when Sweden's health authority...

    A few weeks ago when Sweden's health authority issued a press release saying they were well (40%) on their way to herd immunity people here quickly blew those claims out of the water with some back...
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    And so because of ABBA Sweden becomes our...

    And so because of ABBA Sweden becomes our Waterloo....
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    The paper was released Sunday and will be...

    The paper was released Sunday and will be published in the Clinical Infectious Diseases medical journal, but isn't available on the internet yet.

    I couldn't find better info on symptoms and viral...
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    Given the United States history of being the...

    Given the United States history of being the world's leader in epidemic response LongShortLong's counterfactual reads more true than not.

    Deebased is moving the goal post by arguing no country...
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    329124

    329124
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    That he respects your statistics degree from...

    That he respects your statistics degree from Koch-Brothers university.
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    Despite all the wheels they're still just a rat...

    Despite all the wheels they're still just a rat in a cage.
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    They have. A study used hamsters (is that small...

    They have. A study used hamsters (is that small enough?) with fans to simulate the wind blowing across cages from an infected group to a healthy group. Mask barriers were placed just on cages with...
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    It’s a dilemma. Everyone’s future depends...

    It’s a dilemma. Everyone’s future depends critically on the course of the disease. Barring a technological breakthrough like a vaccine or a treatment America’s economic recovery will depend on trust....
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    You're wrong. Masks work if enough people wear...

    You're wrong. Masks work if enough people wear them.

    In Japan, where nearly everyone is wearing a mask, there is no lockdown, still-active subways, and many businesses have remained...
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    Both studies looked at cloth masks in a...

    Both studies looked at cloth masks in a clinic/hospital setting and found them ineffective compared with an N95. That's why, along with not wanting to create even more shortages for health care...
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    328975

    328975
  13. Replies
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    Harvard has a new study/model on climate...

    Harvard has a new study/model on climate conditions and COVID-19 transmission.

    They find temperature and relative humidity changes R0 (the contagiousness or transmissibility) of COVID-19 by as...
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    And, in the spirit of bipartisanship NYC's De...

    And, in the spirit of bipartisanship NYC's De Blasio initially attempted to follow simple, faulty ideas from herd immunity ideologists that sounded good, but went against what leading national and...
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    Speaking of the truth and gross negligence, for...

    Speaking of the truth and gross negligence, for anyone who missed anything Edward Luce with the Financial Times has a recap of the story so far:


    Again and again, the story that emerged is of a...
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    If 80% of Americans wore masks, COVID-19...

    If 80% of Americans wore masks, COVID-19 Infections would plummet, according to a new study.

    There’s compelling evidence that Japan, Hong Kong, and other East Asian locales are doing it right and...
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    ^ Re highangle's head cold and for all the people...

    ^ Re highangle's head cold and for all the people who had respiratory illnesses earlier this past winter, it's unlikely you had COVID but the good news is if it was caused by one of the other...
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    Speaking of immunity, recent research suggests...

    Speaking of immunity, recent research suggests there's crossreactive immunity from other coronaviruses which might explain why there's so many mild or asymptomatic cases, and also suggests vaccines...
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    It would be helpful if the subset of folk(s) here...

    It would be helpful if the subset of folk(s) here would stop the "lockdown" rhetoric. There are very few instances of crude shotgun blast lockdowns in America. It's a minority of people persisting...
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    Framing this as lockdown vs reopening is...

    Framing this as lockdown vs reopening is inaccurate because businesses are reopening so what matters is how they go about doing it. How people choose to act.

    There won't be a robust return to...
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    Is what we're doing now working? Didn't somebody...

    Is what we're doing now working? Didn't somebody here post a bunch of charts and then argue it's mostly elderly and health compromised who are affected so we should end whatever it is we're doing?
    ...
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    ^ And we shouldn't assume there's an easy way of...

    ^ And we shouldn't assume there's an easy way of protecting high risk individuals while simultaneously allowing the virus to spread unchecked.

    What are we going to do tuck them away in bubble...
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    It exposes the dangers of widespread reopening...

    It exposes the dangers of widespread reopening without a containment plan.

    Case in point the Smithfield Foods meatpacking plant in South Dakota. Smithfield paid bonuses to workers for not staying...
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    328636

    328636
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    FWIW, all macro models including Austrian,...

    FWIW, all macro models including Austrian, Keynesian, Marxist, monetarist, and RBC define rising prosperity as increasing real incomes, not increasing nominal wages and not increasing asset prices....
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    The key point is the money supply is not a...

    The key point is the money supply is not a reliable measure of monetary policy. The evidence that the Fed was too tight is seen in the sharp drop in Nominal GDP (NGDP) leading to a sharp drop in Real...
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    Right now an aggregation of studies indicates...

    Right now an aggregation of studies indicates COVID is five to ten times worse than flu for anyone over the age of 23 or so.

    Just because around 80% of deaths for both COVID-19 and influenza occur...
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    Agreed, reliance on rising asset prices for...

    Agreed, reliance on rising asset prices for prosperity is a bad thing.

    My point is there's often a tautological aspect to these arguments. The causation arrow *always* points to the Fed → rising...
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    The question isn't whether housing and equity...

    The question isn't whether housing and equity prices rose, that's reasoning from a price change, the question is what would real housing prices look like in a world without bubbles?

    Prices would...
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    Once again you're reasoning from a price change....

    Once again you're reasoning from a price change. We know from the real estate thread that there's lots of affordable housing in middle America.

    Restrictive zoning and high demand in hot markets...
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    Without context your chart means nothing and...

    Without context your chart means nothing and that's why you should never reason from a price change. Once again MV = NGDP.

    In other other words, Nominal GDP tells you whether monetary policy is...
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    No, you're missing the point and instead...

    No, you're missing the point and instead resorting to demagoguery.

    As a result of restrictive monetary policy the U.S. economy weakened steadily *before the financial turmoil* throughout 2008...
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    ^ MV = PQ or MV = Nominal GDP. Gold bug BTC ...

    ^ MV = PQ or MV = Nominal GDP. Gold bug BTC homers never understand velocity (V).
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    Yeah, the lesson from '08 was that money was too...

    Yeah, the lesson from '08 was that money was too tight.

    "Restrictive monetary policy rather than the deleveraging in financial markets that had begun in August 2007 offers a more direct...
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    Yesterday both both France and Spain released...

    Yesterday both both France and Spain released seroprevalence data.

    In France only around 5% infected, more than 20,000 deaths, with 3.6% of infected individuals hospitalized and an IFR of 0.7%.
    ...
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    Not to mention COVID truthers rely on cherry...

    Not to mention COVID truthers rely on cherry picked provisional death counts for their statements. According to the CDC:

    - “Death certificates take time to be completed.”
    - “Waiting for test...
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    One of ironies of the Karen-mongering is the...

    One of ironies of the Karen-mongering is the overlap among men protesting while heavily armed wearing full tactical kits including bulletproof vests and helmets in a spit fueled rage over other...
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    You should stop repeating this lie. It's a lie...

    You should stop repeating this lie. It's a lie because COVID-19:

    1 - Is significantly more contagious
    2 - There's a significantly higher proportion of the population susceptible to the disease
    3...
  39. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJc5-E20jKc&featur...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJc5-E20jKc&feature=emb_logo
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    The real answer depends on whether the tax cuts...

    The real answer depends on whether the tax cuts led to faster growth. In order for them to pay for themselves the administration said there would need to be 3% annual growth for the next ten years....
  41. Ran into a trail runner in upper Broads around 7...

    Ran into a trail runner in upper Broads around 7 this morning. The dude seemed a little concerned about safety, mentioned the snow was firm, and suggested waiting for it to soften up.

    I assumed he...
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    Without a doubt there are other unexplained...

    Without a doubt there are other unexplained instances of infection. It happens. But we don't have to stop everything. Contact tracing or monitoring close contacts of infected people, for example, has...
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    It is out the Book of Duh, now. Even so, it has...

    It is out the Book of Duh, now. Even so, it has significant implications in terms of slowing or stopping the spread because it suggests close contact matters most. It's obvious now, it wasn't obvious...
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    It's a good article. Nobody is saying there...

    It's a good article. Nobody is saying there aren't multiple modes of transmission. It's more about ranking risk from high to low. A strategy doesn't have to be perfect to work, it just has to be good...
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    ^ Yeah, the bummer about wearing masks is it's...

    ^ Yeah, the bummer about wearing masks is it's not so much about protecting yourself from aerosolized droplets as is it is stopping infectious people from spreading droplets. In other words, for...
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    "A second of passing through infected droplets on...

    "A second of passing through infected droplets on a sidewalk is enough as well, not to mention those mists floating through store or office HVAC systems."

    HVAC systems, yes. A second of passing...
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    There are a lot of unknowns but the evidence...

    There are a lot of unknowns but the evidence suggests drawing the opposite conclusions. It's not density and momentary proximity per se, instead it's prolonged contact indoors. Dosage appears to...
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    Back in the day Europeans would say "it can't be...

    Back in the day Europeans would say "it can't be done" and Americans would just go and do it. Now it's about how Americans like SkiCougar say stuff like "pandemic mitigation can't be done" and the...
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    Within a minute into this Dance thing and you...

    Within a minute into this Dance thing and you know it’s the best thing ever.

    The best/worst aspect is the editing. Who knows who talked to Sam Smith for the The Jordan Rules, cut to Horace Grant....
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    In a scenario with no one living within a mile...

    In a scenario with no one living within a mile the issue isn't proximity, it's someone coming into contact with an infected person and then spreading it at home. In rural areas it's going to church...
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