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  1. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
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    72,494

    Volume is concentrated in 90 days of delivery so...

    Volume is concentrated in 90 days of delivery so mostly used as a short term hedge. So, the volatility will occur in the front months and move more daily than the back months. Eventually they...
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    ďAssets?Ē Like leveraged loans? Itís all one...

    ďAssets?Ē Like leveraged loans? Itís all one giant derivative contract. Itís completely opaque what they actually have in reserve.
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Demand for options from largest hedgers is down therefore price of options is down which means lower price of volatility.

    Options are complicated math but thatís the simple explanation. ...
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    They have to auction to highest bidder? GS...

    They have to auction to highest bidder? GS could step in pre BK but donít think theyíd want any custodial liability
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    There could be a miracle 100% rally in assets to...

    There could be a miracle 100% rally in assets to bail them out.
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    CNBC discussion about an hour ago. There is no path out. Their only solution is open up and no one sells. Thatís not happening.

    Itís what their lawyers want?

    ďCelsius, dogged by a...
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Technically, when something bounces around the lows after a big decline it usually goes lower because a market doesnít give you that much time to buy the low. Or, it moves sidewise and develops a...
  8. Thread: Wagon Stoke

    by 4matic
    Replies
    4,907
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    653,888

    Took the E500 to Americas Tire for rotate and...

    Took the E500 to Americas Tire for rotate and balance. I was surprised when the kids gathered round for a look and thumbs up. V8 wagon still getting it done 420231
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    Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers...

    Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers are using futures for pure directional beta rather than options. Record short interest in stock futures.
  10. Thread: Kitty Stoke

    by 4matic
    Replies
    7,439
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    794,058

    Love a cat with a broken tooth. Life lived.

    Love a cat with a broken tooth. Life lived.
  11. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
    1,196
    Views
    72,494

    My V8 wagon with 187k miles has original plugs...

    My V8 wagon with 187k miles has original plugs and coils and still gets itís epa designated fuel economy. Rock solid idle.
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    Simple Monetary theory has been largely dismissed.

    Simple Monetary theory has been largely dismissed.
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    Crew are employees.

    Crew are employees.
  14. Replies
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    If PPP money obtained legally was used to buy ďtoysĒ that was the intention. Stimulus. A yacht needs a lot of downstream support.
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    Rated on the Ogden scale?

    Rated on the Ogden scale?
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    Itís not the BTC, itís the irresponsibility with...

    Itís not the BTC, itís the irresponsibility with sovereign assets in speculative investments:

    El Salvador bet its economic salvation on bitcoin, but so far the gamble isnít paying off like...
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    Laser is most beneficial for ancillary distances:...

    Laser is most beneficial for ancillary distances: traps , front of green, layups, carry distance.

    I donít mind first to the tee calling out a flag yardage. It can help speed up play.
  18. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
    1,196
    Views
    72,494

    I think itís reasonable to forego summer blend...

    I think itís reasonable to forego summer blend early this year.
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    Yeah, I played with some div1 college kids a few...

    Yeah, I played with some div1 college kids a few years ago. Itís a different game.
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    Whatís the interest rate on your margin?

    Whatís the interest rate on your margin?
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    BTC has a long way to fall if that is prevailing...

    BTC has a long way to fall if that is prevailing thought because it shows complete lack of comprehension of what bonds are.
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    Thereís your bitcoin buyer presenting the new...

    Thereís your bitcoin buyer presenting the new world of finance
  23. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    So, Bond rates went to negative yield because people were optimistic about the future?

    Also, your chart is a constant maturity yield chart. Not really a bond chart.
  24. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Not true. BTC is accounted as a mark to market asset and loss. Bonds are not.
  25. Replies
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    Bonds also have a maturity date which provide...

    Bonds also have a maturity date which provide return of capital. Itís the definition of a paper loss.
  26. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Copper was 30% lower than it is now pre-pandemic and is working on 13 straight days of decline.

    RIO dividend @13% is pretty attractive
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    Wheat and corn are down 20% from recent high. ...

    Wheat and corn are down 20% from recent high. Corn is down 6% today. Nat Gas is down another 9%, 30% below itís recent high
  28. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    2y rate crashes back below 3%. Down 50bp from its recent high. 10y on the verge. 3% is support for the 10y so Iíd like to see a close or three below. At this point an aggressive Fed move will...
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Xpeng, $XPEV has an average analyst price of $280. Trading at $30. Watched a review on the p7 that sells for $35k. Impressive package.

    Another interesting stock is JOBY trading at $5. Itís...
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    August WTI is the only month over $100 now 20...

    August WTI is the only month over $100 now

    20 month low in copper.

    Corn and Wheat at risk for much larger declines.
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    Assumption that corporations are greedy because...

    Assumption that corporations are greedy because consumers made a choice is conflation. The resulting enhanced climate change is an issue that should be addressed by regulation that serves public...
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    Boise $220k markdown on a $1mm house ...

    Boise $220k markdown on a $1mm house

    https://apps.realtor.com/mUAZ/6xfxs79p
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    3x as many sales last month Vs 2021 in my hood. Inventory up and dom up 100% last three months. In 2019 dom was 3x higher than it was now.

    Nice house. Quiet street. Marked down $100k and well...
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    The new wave. Whoís the man?


    https://youtu.be/ZI3Wwis82cc
  35. Replies
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    Long buyers are no different. Saylor for...

    Long buyers are no different. Saylor for example. Musk for another. Sell hopes and dreams.
  36. Replies
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    Conflation. Consumers chose convenience. I made...

    Conflation. Consumers chose convenience. I made no implication otherwise.
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Walmart, Costco and Home Depot did the same thing. Donít blame them. Consumers have choices.
  38. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
    1,196
    Views
    72,494

    The F250 lightning has 100 mile range towing less...

    The F250 lightning has 100 mile range towing less than 10k pounds.
  39. Replies
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    Now that the word is out that bankman-fried is...

    Now that the word is out that bankman-fried is white knighting it becomes a target to see how deep heíll dig.
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    GSCI is 10% off itís recent high. Itís still up...

    GSCI is 10% off itís recent high. Itís still up 40% yoy but only slightly above its pre-war price.
  41. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
    1,196
    Views
    72,494

    Wide contango in the gasoline futures. WTI is...

    Wide contango in the gasoline futures. WTI is $20 off itís recent high too. Lower prices ahead. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/refined-products/rbob-gasoline.quotes.html
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Because itís wreckable


    https://youtu.be/oDD1tW59Mjg
  43. Replies
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    The shorts added to it. If it wasnít vulnerable...

    The shorts added to it. If it wasnít vulnerable it wouldnít have gone down
  44. Replies
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    Whatís the difference between an attack (sell)...

    Whatís the difference between an attack (sell) and an engineered short squeeze (buy)? Both seem nefarious but thatís what makes a market .
  45. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    The problem with a ďspotĒ etf is custody and settlement. Futures exchange have that in place. Even the GLD etf has a warehouse with actual gold in it. It can be done but Iím not sure there is a...
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    Luna ancillaries still have btc to liquidate. ...

    Luna ancillaries still have btc to liquidate. Celsius, 3AC. MSTR is going to have to do something to avoid liquidation. The ETFís are going to have to sell for redemptions. Institutions arenít...
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    No, every little bounce convinces inexperienced...

    No, every little bounce convinces inexperienced investors that the bottom is in. Eventually theyíll just quit looking at it and talking about it turning what is left into a long term investment. ...
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    Solana is holding well above its recent low.

    Solana is holding well above its recent low.
  49. Replies
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    When Celsius declares bankruptcy theyíll...

    When Celsius declares bankruptcy theyíll liquidate holdings?
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    Might be concerning going into a weekend near an...

    Might be concerning going into a weekend near an 18 month low with the publicly hedges closed
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