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    Anyone figure out the injury rate for Covid yet?...

    Anyone figure out the injury rate for Covid yet? I.e. what percentage still need medication, oxygen, have diminished VO2max, organ damage, etc. How many are not fully recovered two months out?

    5%...
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    Going for herd immunity? I think of Wuhan...

    Going for herd immunity?

    I think of Wuhan having 70k total. We gonna do that in a day by next week?
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    PSAs would require leadership, and that...

    PSAs would require leadership, and that particular kind seems to be lacking at all levels. For some reason public health and political leaders are happy putting up some numbers and graphs, and...
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    Answering my own question - some cold viruses are...

    Answering my own question - some cold viruses are spread by fomite, some are not. Apparently not the one studied above.

    2004 literature review, see table 2...
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    I quarantine or wash my groceries / packages....

    I quarantine or wash my groceries / packages. Might be overkill. I'm not an epidemiologist. That study could be flawed, or Covid is different, I wouldn't know.
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    Have there been any updates to this 1987 study?...

    Have there been any updates to this 1987 study?
    https://www.jstor.org/stable/30134751?seq=1
    Dragged up from decades old memory with help from the googs.

    They had a really hard time showing...
  7. I wrote something in response to a much poorer...

    I wrote something in response to a much poorer argument on the topic. I share it here.

    Perhaps it's time for a modern statue of a black man kneeling....
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    Won't be much of a ski season if we have to wait...

    Won't be much of a ski season if we have to wait for Biden before knocking down the rat flu.
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    Wear your damn masks. Stay away from people. Tell...

    Wear your damn masks. Stay away from people. Tell your public health officials to contact trace. Let's seriously try to beat this without a lockdown.
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    It's also a very real possibility that of all...

    It's also a very real possibility that of all major metro areas on earth, Wuhan has the among the lowest percentage of immune in their population. And the rate of new infection/death in Wuhan has...
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    Your first question applies today, going forward....

    Your first question applies today, going forward. Will the economy be better off if we do a real Spain or Italian lockdown?

    What's unrealistic about a travel ban? Many countries have them at the...
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    I was hoping they'd succeed. Maybe between...

    I was hoping they'd succeed. Maybe between summer, masks, contact tracing, and not too many ill-advised gatherings, that would be enough to slowly decrease prevalence (keep R under 1). You know,...
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    The world has its problems... true tragedy right...

    The world has its problems... true tragedy right there
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    Yep, it possible that systemic corruption is...

    Yep, it possible that systemic corruption is behind the US coronapolcalypse. That's no reason to believe the system can't save us. From the west coast, one looks across the pond to many similar...
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    Anybody remember the disastrous outbreak in...

    Anybody remember the disastrous outbreak in Wuhan? A few months ago, China freaked out and had 70k cases total over 3 months. Ah... the good old days...
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    That seems to show less than half of positive...

    That seems to show less than half of positive admissions get out alive. Lower cortisol increases your chances, but still less than half live. Is that right? (Journal articles are a little thick for...
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    "I wonder if they're going to blame NY for not...

    "I wonder if they're going to blame NY for not warning them about the virus."
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    Agreed. Say, is there a problem wearing the...

    Agreed.

    Say, is there a problem wearing the same one over and over? The N95's primary purpose is to filter dust... Since I don't have a dusty job, it ought to work fine for more than one shift....
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    AZ is the worst. Assume 1% of population as an...

    AZ is the worst. Assume 1% of population as an arbitrary threshold for when things get interesting (several states are at this level, NY and NJ close to 2%). AZ has 2-3 weeks before they get there,...
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    It sucks. I'm sorry. Sorry some of my fellow...

    It sucks. I'm sorry. Sorry some of my fellow humans are too confused to figure out they must help to snuff out the Covids. Agree some who do the right thing will suffer because of those who don't....
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    ^ This. I stopped stressing about it. People will...

    ^ This. I stopped stressing about it. People will die and get hurt, rest might learn, then problem will fix itself. Economy/life will be fucked for longer, but what can I do? Guess I'll go hiking,...
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    I bet Florida's new top data scientists remit...

    I bet Florida's new top data scientists remit includes protecting that data from public access.



    I'm trying not to be political. Whichever president says it, the sooner the better! There's a...
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    My assessment is most states have manageable...

    My assessment is most states have manageable problems - their cases are decreasing, or increasing slowly enough there's time to act (another lockdown?) before hospitals are forced into crisis level...
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    You're right the metrics have problems. All the...

    You're right the metrics have problems. All the numbers suffer one way or another. Generally I see the politician say 'our numbers are up b/c we're testing more' and I hear 'we're failing but I'm...
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    Carry on then, have fun! I wished I made the...

    Carry on then, have fun!

    I wished I made the last weekend here. Would have felt guilty at the time, but given what's happened since, my conscience would be clean.

    New Zealand story could be...
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    How is resort skiing responsible? It was one of...

    How is resort skiing responsible? It was one of the prime vectors for early Covid spread. Little has changed. There's no reason to believe it's any different now. And many many more people are...
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    hmm... past deaths isn't a useful comparator....

    hmm... past deaths isn't a useful comparator. Looking at the recent history, as opposed to the cumulative history:
    CO - 200 cases per day, falling trend
    UT - 350 cases per day, rising trend, and...
  28. Pickup groceries are pretty nice. Discovering...

    Pickup groceries are pretty nice.

    Discovering the less used trails at my favorite local park, and some crosscountry routes to connect them.

    Getting to said park in 20 minutes instead of an hour...
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    OG - WHO updated their mask guidance recently....

    OG - WHO updated their mask guidance recently. They likely also published their justification and reference to studies.
  30. There is a private market. Price looks good...

    There is a private market. Price looks good $1.42/lb
    https://rockawayrecycling.com/metal/bronze-2/


    Outside scrap, I doubt there's much market. Since I became aware of the statue controversy...
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    I prefer to view that as a step in the right...

    I prefer to view that as a step in the right direction. Doing the Covid-avoidance dance has a lot of new steps and fancy moves. We're all learning them.

    When I touch my face, I don't beat myself...
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    With exponential growth, and unknown variation in...

    With exponential growth, and unknown variation in the exponential factor as behaviors change, the cocktail napkin math (and detailed models) tend toward WAG as the timeframes become long.

    Would...
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    So, when it blows up in a few weeks, what's the...

    So, when it blows up in a few weeks, what's the new bullshit/gaslight going to be?
    "You told us all to wear masks and stay home and it blew up anyway"
    "There's no spread, improved testing found...
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    Interesting to see our northern neighbors'...

    Interesting to see our northern neighbors' conservative party harping on their liberal government flubbing the corona response
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    Church opens, recloses 2 weeks later following...

    Church opens, recloses 2 weeks later following corona cases.
    Matthew 18:20 presenting some difficulties at the moment.

    Sitting 6 feet apart, door open, and other measures wasn't enough...
  36. Replies
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    Amen

    Amen
  37. Replies
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    It's certainly possible another administration...

    It's certainly possible another administration would have blown it, too. Plenty of the world's governments failed to act strongly early. However, most also look at the US and CDC response on epidemic...
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    I don't believe it had to spread out of control...

    I don't believe it had to spread out of control here. With a few dozen cases, we'd have plenty of PPE. Several countries have crushed coronavirus so hard as to suggest a vaccine is not needed....
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    Not pretending. See Taiwan's response. Did...

    Not pretending. See Taiwan's response.

    Did Taiwan ever have a lockdown? I don't think they did.

    Recently in Taiwan: 3 days no new cases. 28 days no domestic transmission....
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    You're right, people are good at delay and...

    You're right, people are good at delay and stalling, governments too. However, epidemiologists, including Americans, were aware of the potential in late December. One of Taiwan's first official...
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    I assume you mean if it happened in say 2006...

    I assume you mean if it happened in say 2006 Bush, or 2010 Obama (everything is political with 45). By mid-January or earlier, extreme contact-tracing starts (ala Taiwan). The US would have led the...
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    Thanks. I have met some fine people there....

    Thanks. I have met some fine people there. Including some in that Costco. And a nicely priced hot dog
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    Sorry to hear that about Redding. One of my...

    Sorry to hear that about Redding. One of my favorite annual trips takes place near there in late Summer. I'm hoping it'll happen this year. Hopefully Summer weather and social hostility holds off a...
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    jgb, et al Please research excess deaths, and...

    jgb, et al

    Please research excess deaths, and get back to us on undercounting Covid deaths. Or tell us what other thing is killing us these last few months.

    Also, in case you've forgotten, in...
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    I'm happy orange man declared 15 days to "slow...

    I'm happy orange man declared 15 days to "slow the spread" way back on March 16 when we had 4,600 cases. In that time period, cases were doubling every 3-5 days. That declaration saved much suffering...
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    Maggot masks? GSA private label? "Believe"

    Maggot masks? GSA private label? "Believe"
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    This question needs an answer. Some of the bigger...

    This question needs an answer. Some of the bigger northern counties (SF, Santa Clara, Sacramento) have falling case rates. Roughly 1/4 their peaks. Notably these are also counties that saw some of...
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    Some people only know their training. Logic is...

    Some people only know their training. Logic is not part of their lives.
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    For comparison, here's a recent US Life table...

    For comparison, here's a recent US Life table with 90% of rows removed to make it fit here
    328747
    from https://ftp.cdc.gov/pub/Health_Statistics/NCHS/Publications/NVSR/68_07/Table01.xlsx

    E.g. a...
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    Leave your real number plz Would guess the...

    Leave your real number plz

    Would guess the public health issue is:
    1) Enclosed spaces like restaurants are good for spreading respiratory disease
    2) People from infected neighborhoods spread it...
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