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Type: Posts; User: LeeLau

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    The season ended on March 17 (well we skinned up...

    The season ended on March 17 (well we skinned up the WB runs a couple of days or so after they clo but it really barely counts). Here's the last day

    Sunset and Vantage – March 17, 2020

    We...
  2. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Ha. True. Here's a breakdown by country and by...

    Ha. True. Here's a breakdown by country and by age from Oxford University fyi https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
  3. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Hard to say really 100k cases yesterday...

    Hard to say really

    100k cases yesterday approx. But recall har due to under testing who really knows the real number? That 100k doubles every 2.5 days on a 32% increase.

    10 days -...
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    It was still cold (-11@ at valley. -11@ridgetop)....

    It was still cold (-11@ at valley. -11@ridgetop). Winds had backed off so winds were light at ridgeline. However all N, NE and NW aspects now had a stout pronounced windslab (2 – 5cms pencil). With...
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    Central Duffey March 16 The way the world was...

    Central Duffey March 16

    The way the world was going we figured skiing would shut down pretty soon. Lending to this pessimism (reality?) was the recent Arctic outflow wind event which had decimated...
  6. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Apps for contact tracing The Economist |...

    Apps for contact tracing

    The Economist | Creating the coronopticon https://www.economist.com/node/21782730?frsc=dg%7Ce
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    Do recall I bought IVR the day before it dropped...

    Do recall I bought IVR the day before it dropped 50%. It's regained most of what it lost. I mean i know you're joking kinda
  8. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    For data junkies Very interesting...

    For data junkies

    Very interesting visualizations tracking fatalities and healthcare system utlilization and drawdown state by state.

    Kindly brought to my attention by @Molly Nixon
    ...
  9. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Cell phones have their own EIN. Most providers...

    Cell phones have their own EIN. Most providers TOS require one to agree to allow use of "anonymized , aggregated data" including geolocation. Of course all personal info is stripped away
    ...trust...
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    Fromme in North...

    Fromme in North Van322438322439322440322441322442322443
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    Carnival Cruise Lines from 10 to 18 in 5 trading...

    Carnival Cruise Lines from 10 to 18 in 5 trading sessions? While i have faith in the cult of cruising and old people it's crazy not to take that off the table. My feeling is I'll be buying it back...
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    Took profits on 70% of my dumpster-dive longs. ...

    Took profits on 70% of my dumpster-dive longs. Swear I was going to buy and hold but when the full faith and credit of Uncle Sam's stimulus gives you 3 up days you take what you can
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    I looked a couple of days ago. No borrows for...

    I looked a couple of days ago. No borrows for shortsellers
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    The efficient market theory assumes that...

    The efficient market theory assumes that investors act rationally....

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/little-known-companys-shares-surge-035141603.html
  15. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Friends in Japan are cautiously optimistic but...

    Friends in Japan are cautiously optimistic but also wondering when the other shoe will drop ie resurgent cases. This goes for urban and rural
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    More on mREITs. Missed TWO yesterday so all...

    More on mREITs. Missed TWO yesterday so all academic now

    They packaged and sold off their non agency MBS

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-harbors-investment-corp-announces-201200237.html

    ...
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    GiBo I have no idea whether this helps but I work...

    GiBo I have no idea whether this helps but I work with a company that does cloud-based water quality, FOGs etc. If there's any way any of their tools can help you get your job done a bit easier so...
  18. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Just to put a perhaps more optimistic spin on...

    Just to put a perhaps more optimistic spin on this Sweden is trying another method of dealing with COVID. Herd immunity by exposing younger populations while segregation of elderly...
  19. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    The Norwegians, Swiss, Canadians I know are all...

    The Norwegians, Swiss, Canadians I know are all really concerned about the US. Not flinging poo but just stepping back and looking at it clinically (well as clinically as one can given the...
  20. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    If I got this right US will go into light...

    If I got this right US will go into light mitigation for approx 2 weeks meaning some regions will be in suppression/essential services only and some regions will be in light mitigation ie...
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    At least i didn't Photoshop the teeter totter in...

    At least i didn't Photoshop the teeter totter in this time
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    Update re mREITs. In on IVR just before they...

    Update re mREITs.

    In on IVR just before they announced unlikely to meet margin calls. Looks like repo desks and other lenders marked to market their collateral and found it wanting and asked IVR...
  23. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    ncov2019.live scrapes news, the national disease...

    ncov2019.live scrapes news, the national disease centers, JHSU, WHO and updates real time. It's one of many sources which now does so
  24. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Compared to the US, yes Canada compared to the...

    Compared to the US, yes

    Canada compared to the US, yes
  25. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    I agree they're not. What they've done is reduce...

    I agree they're not. What they've done is reduce the number of cases. That doesn't mean that cases and then fatalities won't spike again.

    But they've got processes, infrastructure and a...
  26. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    I saw it and agreed. The Chinese , Singapore and...

    I saw it and agreed. The Chinese , Singapore and Taiwan have some commonalities. They have relatively competent governments (once the CCP got its shit together boy did they rock). These...
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    Some trails Shar worked on. Did an hour spin to...

    Some trails Shar worked on. Did an hour spin to clear head322134322135322136322137322138322139
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    I'll pass it on. I don't have the capacity for...

    I'll pass it on. I don't have the capacity for the extra corporate work so will.do that
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    Darwin zone A cold spell for mid-March brings...

    Darwin zone

    A cold spell for mid-March brings in unseasonably low temps. While sun affect is putting paid to even W and E aspects everything remotely north-facing still skis beautifully. Travel is...
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    Agreed. I've got one client who offers an expert...

    Agreed. I've got one client who offers an expert system on dealing with mental health and anxiety. They have a COVID module released for free. I used it because I'm frankly terrified for my...
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    Technology lawyer. Was quite part time. But my...

    Technology lawyer. Was quite part time. But my client's "normal" lawyers (ie corporate/general etc) are having a harder time adjusting to working remotely than expected because there's so much...
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    Thanks! It'll be good for individual homeowners...

    Thanks! It'll be good for individual homeowners to get somewhat of a helping hand
  33. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    WA state trailing 5 days daily %age growth rate...

    WA state trailing 5 days daily %age growth rate has dropped to approx 11-12%. Cautious optimism
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    Does it extend to residential mortgages?

    Does it extend to residential mortgages?
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    Glad that worked out!

    Glad that worked out!
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    On the fragility of mREITs and commercial...

    On the fragility of mREITs and commercial mortgage markets.† The swaps used to hedge by mREITs are probably the recipients of†the margin calls

    ...
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    Just going through the archives to keep it going...

    Just going through the archives to keep it going since the season is over. To be clear this is all now pre-lockdown pics.

    A northerly blew through the Duffey and brought strong winds to the...
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    Thanks Mazderati. I rode a Commercial space REIT...

    Thanks Mazderati. I rode a Commercial space REIT (RAS) down to a massive flameout and bankrupt once so I'm gunshy there but I'll read. Appreciated
  39. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    And that's OK. If we (meaning people taking this...

    And that's OK. If we (meaning people taking this seriously) are right then it will be brought under control and really that's reward enough; or at least it is to me.
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    Stuck my toe in and bought IVR as a small...

    Stuck my toe in and bought IVR as a small position. It's a mortgage REIT. Most exposure is CA RE with mortgages in packaged RMBS but you can see my notes from before up thread. Dividend is 0.50...
  41. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    I've responded to this 7 times alone last week.

    I've responded to this 7 times alone last week.
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    http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-arti...

    http://ronpaulinstitute.org/archives/featured-articles/2020/march/16/the-coronavirus-hoax/
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    Thoughts and prayers Rand paul. T & P

    Thoughts and prayers Rand paul. T & P
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    Joffre Lakes again \ Joffre Lakes was so good...

    Joffre Lakes again
    \
    Joffre Lakes was so good and yielded so many instabangers we went back for more. This time we hit up a birthday mission for a triple lapper but found that pure Westerly slopes...
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    This is actually a solid idea. Look at WA state...

    This is actually a solid idea. Look at WA state contagion rate of spread too. It looks like they're the benchmark US region

    https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus

    And Wiki scrapes...
  46. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Resume of data scientists putting this project...

    Resume of data scientists putting this project together. Data scraped from fed and state CDCs. Projections from WHO, JHSU

    Projections are timelines for when hospital systems are overwhelmed...
  47. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    In actuarial tables there's a calculus for health...

    In actuarial tables there's a calculus for health and human life. It's actually quite fascinating in a mathematical geek kind of way. Embedded in those calculations is an implicit assumption as to...
  48. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    Denmark process. Non paywall...

    Denmark process.

    Non paywall https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/denmark-freezing-its-economy-should-us/608533/?fbclid=IwAR3afBTvleluIXUJQpxZzVy-6H_cH1ce79ydZm1DRlE9tD2Py2dE4w99K8w
    ...
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    A disclosure that John Mauldin is a permabear...

    A disclosure that John Mauldin is a permabear doom and gloom kind of guy. I mean I'm a former short seller and hate bubbles blah blah blah but even to me this guy's a downer
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    Is this better.? Takes away the affiliate link ...

    Is this better.? Takes away the affiliate link

    https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-beacons-are-lit#
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