SNAP exposed that there just isn’t enough global ad dollars and growth In Those dollars to support the valuation on any of the social stocks.

Another thing I’m wondering about is if indexing and...

XOM does have the large nat gas exposure so it can continue to run ahead as long as NG stays strong. Crude gets a bid on any weakness so likely higher. You never get that much time to sell a top. ...

There’s some out of context too. He’s never been a bond guy and doesn’t need them.

Safer than bonds!

Can’t happen with the current structure at either company

Yes but you can’t assume anything. With an option you only make money if the price goes up. With an RSU it always has an intrinsic value.

A heloc this close to purchase might affect your options for finance.

I bought my house in the short summer lull last year. Maybe not a better price but less competition.

It’s neutral as a compensation bonus because it’s a grant and not an option.

$1m doesn’t get you much house these days

DXY is 3% off it’s recent high. Good support a couple % lower. This is good news short term.

When Powell immediately shook off .75 hike he knew there was no way. .50 in June is questionable now

6 week low in the ten year rate.

New home sales in the United States sank 16.6% mom to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 in April of 2022, the lowest since April of 2020 and well below forecasts of 750,000. Sales fell in...

New home sales collapse. 9 month supply.

Gasoline futures are down 5% tonight. June delivery. Demand not there with refineries geared up for driving season. If oil breaks gasoline prices can fall quite a bit.

Layoff tracker getting busier but nothing big yet

https://layoffs.fyi/

Money markets are backed by short term treasury and have low yield accordingly. There is no magic formula for outsized gains. IF a tether fails if will be swift just like Luna with no maturity...

Next down cycle in stocks will be led by TSLA. It will take a while for the indices to diverge.

It’s never slowing down. Maybe they should use transitory?

Dixon. Respect

Bitcoin car had the fastest indy 500 qualifying speed since 1996. Goes for the pole today. In past years it would have already won pole.

417151

The only equalizer these days is wind or unfair greens. They’ve reached the limits of length. Even at this distance they’re still hitting wedges into the par fours. It’s kinda boring. I miss...

So we can stop calling them currency?

I’m looking for the lost de vinci and nazi gold. Im also certain there is no gold in Fort Knox.

Create a sense of scarcity with an illusion of lost supply owned by an imaginary friend. Fairy dust and unicorn stuff

Currency trends much farther and longer than most expect. Although, long currency trends have been fleeting in recent decades. In 2010 we were post GFC and rates in Europe were much higher. Bund...

Just to be clear, my investments are levered to a lower dollar. Strong dollar hurts me going forward as I have a lot of EM sovereign dollar bond exposure.

Three things are supporting the USD:

1. Oil is priced in dollars.

2. US interest rates are much higher than other major currencies; even China!

3. Reserve status in times of turmoil.

This is not true. It might add some value but reserve status is a banking function. It’s how global transactions are priced. The dollar was 30% lower not too many years ago.

Drumbeats for the demise of the dollar have been loud since the end of Bretton Woods System

Money for Luna came from this guy:

Since 2010, Vinod Khosla has been engaged in a legal dispute surrounding public access to Martin's Beach, several miles south of Half Moon Bay, California,...

Luna was funded by “Wall Street types”. You can’t have it both ways. Fact is, that $40-60 billion was just an illusion sold by those same Wall Street types. There is no altruism in crypto. You...

My view on energy is that it’s still great for income but now that every one loves it I’d be on alert for a pullback.

BOTZ Has performed well with global diversification
...

Dalio has consistently said that a real rate of return going forward will be difficult and requires a very broad diversification

Good video. Really like both long term views.

An optimistic...

+2 on MT advice right now. After balanced funds got pummeled I think they have good value. Maybe even a global fund like GBLAX

https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gblax/portfolio

Great course. Big

Rates rolled over pretty well into support. HYG down on the day. That needs to show some strength.

10y rate near a six week low

My hood 95762 is still selling ok. The nicest ones go in a weekend. It’s a popular Bay Area exodus spot. 3 years ago houses languished here.

It’s always a great time to buy! 8% rates will ripple across the economy with much higher unemployment and credit card payments will be up 5%

Rates will be lower next year. Deflation still the...

Airlines are booked for most of the summer and I Suspect most of those fares were booked before the increases. After the summer season we’ll see. The Easy Jet CEO is not clear after summer.

What if inflation really is transitory? All this hand wringing could be completely misplaced.

What’s the hurry for USA now that demand has cratered? All that extra ordering is going to cause widespread price cuts. Just wait till the layoffs hit.

Container rates dropping

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/sky-high-container-shipping-rates-are-falling-back-to-earth/amp

When China started locking down massive port cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to prevent the spread of COVID-19, fears mounted that maritime supply chain disruptions would get even worse. That...

Double ordering microchips. Always a boom bust cycle.

Look at all the retailers. Starting to be a theme.

“Ross Stores fell more than 18% after the retailer posted first-quarter revenue...

Let me guess? Gold!!

There are two parts of QT. Roll off and selling. Most of the Fed balance sheet is in one to five year maturities so most of that can roll off. The bonds they choose to sell can be sold at auction...

I’m with her on this one. Deflationary forces will return. That’s why I went long bonds of many flavors.