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Type: Posts; User: 4matic

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  1. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    SNAP exposed that there just isnít enough global ad dollars and growth In Those dollars to support the valuation on any of the social stocks.

    Another thing Iím wondering about is if indexing and...
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    XOM does have the large nat gas exposure so it...

    XOM does have the large nat gas exposure so it can continue to run ahead as long as NG stays strong. Crude gets a bid on any weakness so likely higher. You never get that much time to sell a top. ...
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    Thereís some out of context too. Heís never been...

    Thereís some out of context too. Heís never been a bond guy and doesnít need them.
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    Safer than bonds!

    Safer than bonds!
  5. Canít happen with the current structure at either...

    Canít happen with the current structure at either company
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Yes but you canít assume anything. With an option you only make money if the price goes up. With an RSU it always has an intrinsic value.
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    A heloc this close to purchase might affect your options for finance.

    I bought my house in the short summer lull last year. Maybe not a better price but less competition.
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    Itís neutral as a compensation bonus because itís...

    Itís neutral as a compensation bonus because itís a grant and not an option.
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    $1m doesnít get you much house these days

    $1m doesnít get you much house these days
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    DXY is 3% off itís recent high. Good support a...

    DXY is 3% off itís recent high. Good support a couple % lower. This is good news short term.
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    When Powell immediately shook off .75 hike he...

    When Powell immediately shook off .75 hike he knew there was no way. .50 in June is questionable now
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    6 week low in the ten year rate.
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    New home sales in the United States sank 16.6%...

    New home sales in the United States sank 16.6% mom to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 in April of 2022, the lowest since April of 2020 and well below forecasts of 750,000. Sales fell in...
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    New home sales collapse. 9 month supply.

    New home sales collapse. 9 month supply.
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    Gasoline futures are down 5% tonight. June...

    Gasoline futures are down 5% tonight. June delivery. Demand not there with refineries geared up for driving season. If oil breaks gasoline prices can fall quite a bit.
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    Layoff tracker getting busier but nothing big yet...

    Layoff tracker getting busier but nothing big yet

    https://layoffs.fyi/
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    Money markets are backed by short term treasury...

    Money markets are backed by short term treasury and have low yield accordingly. There is no magic formula for outsized gains. IF a tether fails if will be swift just like Luna with no maturity...
  18. Next down cycle in stocks will be led by TSLA. ...

    Next down cycle in stocks will be led by TSLA. It will take a while for the indices to diverge.
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    Itís never slowing down. Maybe they should use...

    Itís never slowing down. Maybe they should use transitory?
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    Dixon. Respect

    Dixon. Respect
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    Bitcoin car had the fastest indy 500 qualifying...

    Bitcoin car had the fastest indy 500 qualifying speed since 1996. Goes for the pole today. In past years it would have already won pole.

    417151
  22. Thread: 2022 PGA

    by 4matic
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    2022 PGA

    The only equalizer these days is wind or unfair greens. Theyíve reached the limits of length. Even at this distance theyíre still hitting wedges into the par fours. Itís kinda boring. I miss...
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    So we can stop calling them currency?

    So we can stop calling them currency?
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Iím looking for the lost de vinci and nazi gold. Im also certain there is no gold in Fort Knox.
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Create a sense of scarcity with an illusion of lost supply owned by an imaginary friend. Fairy dust and unicorn stuff
  26. Replies
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    Currency trends much farther and longer than most...

    Currency trends much farther and longer than most expect. Although, long currency trends have been fleeting in recent decades. In 2010 we were post GFC and rates in Europe were much higher. Bund...
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    Just to be clear, my investments are levered to a...

    Just to be clear, my investments are levered to a lower dollar. Strong dollar hurts me going forward as I have a lot of EM sovereign dollar bond exposure.
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    Three things are supporting the USD: 1. Oil...

    Three things are supporting the USD:

    1. Oil is priced in dollars.

    2. US interest rates are much higher than other major currencies; even China!

    3. Reserve status in times of turmoil.
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    This is not true. It might add some value but...

    This is not true. It might add some value but reserve status is a banking function. Itís how global transactions are priced. The dollar was 30% lower not too many years ago.
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Drumbeats for the demise of the dollar have been loud since the end of Bretton Woods System
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Money for Luna came from this guy:

    Since 2010, Vinod Khosla has been engaged in a legal dispute surrounding public access to Martin's Beach, several miles south of Half Moon Bay, California,...
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Luna was funded by ďWall Street typesĒ. You canít have it both ways. Fact is, that $40-60 billion was just an illusion sold by those same Wall Street types. There is no altruism in crypto. You...
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    Where to Invest Money Right Now?

    My view on energy is that itís still great for income but now that every one loves it Iíd be on alert for a pullback.
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    BOTZ Has performed well with global...

    BOTZ Has performed well with global diversification
    ...
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Dalio has consistently said that a real rate of return going forward will be difficult and requires a very broad diversification

    Good video. Really like both long term views.

    An optimistic...
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    +2 on MT advice right now. After balanced funds...

    +2 on MT advice right now. After balanced funds got pummeled I think they have good value. Maybe even a global fund like GBLAX

    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/gblax/portfolio
  37. Thread: 2022 PGA

    by 4matic
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    Great course. Big

    Great course. Big
  38. Replies
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    Rates rolled over pretty well into support. HYG...

    Rates rolled over pretty well into support. HYG down on the day. That needs to show some strength.
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    10y rate near a six week low

    10y rate near a six week low
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    My hood 95762 is still selling ok. The nicest ones go in a weekend. Itís a popular Bay Area exodus spot. 3 years ago houses languished here.
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    Itís always a great time to buy! 8% rates will...

    Itís always a great time to buy! 8% rates will ripple across the economy with much higher unemployment and credit card payments will be up 5%

    Rates will be lower next year. Deflation still the...
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    Airlines are booked for most of the summer and I...

    Airlines are booked for most of the summer and I Suspect most of those fares were booked before the increases. After the summer season weíll see. The Easy Jet CEO is not clear after summer.
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    What if inflation really is transitory? All...

    What if inflation really is transitory? All this hand wringing could be completely misplaced.
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    Whatís the hurry for USA now that demand has...

    Whatís the hurry for USA now that demand has cratered? All that extra ordering is going to cause widespread price cuts. Just wait till the layoffs hit.
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    Container rates dropping ...

    Container rates dropping

    https://www.freightwaves.com/news/sky-high-container-shipping-rates-are-falling-back-to-earth/amp
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    When China started locking down massive port cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen to prevent the spread of COVID-19, fears mounted that maritime supply chain disruptions would get even worse. That...
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    Double ordering microchips. Always a boom bust...

    Double ordering microchips. Always a boom bust cycle.

    Look at all the retailers. Starting to be a theme.

    ďRoss Stores fell more than 18% after the retailer posted first-quarter revenue...
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    Let me guess? Gold!!

    Let me guess? Gold!!
  49. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    There are two parts of QT. Roll off and selling. Most of the Fed balance sheet is in one to five year maturities so most of that can roll off. The bonds they choose to sell can be sold at auction...
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    Iím with her on this one. Deflationary forces...

    Iím with her on this one. Deflationary forces will return. Thatís why I went long bonds of many flavors.
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