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  1. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Selection bias on full display. You gotta be sick...

    Selection bias on full display. You gotta be sick enough to be tested or you miss the whole thing. And how long ago did you quit? Long enough to check "none of the above?" That means...very little....
  2. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Thanks for that. Good to hear you guys are...

    Thanks for that. Good to hear you guys are pulling through, I hope it continues!

    The frontline worker situation highlights a massive problem with just saying "flatten the curve:" it's not one...
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    Foggy basin living up to its rep yesterday. Grey...

    Foggy basin living up to its rep yesterday. Grey cloud hugging dust on a pretty lumpy crust. Anti-social distances and masks maintained, except this little Casper.
    322908
    Nothing worth posting...
  4. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Did you miss the sarcasm there or are you...

    Did you miss the sarcasm there or are you misunderstanding "nihilism?" Your perspective of "it's everywhere anyway" meets that definition much better than mine does.
  5. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    The fact that it spreads between humans is...

    The fact that it spreads between humans is exactly the point: in any given location some have it and some don't. Travelling between states is not more benign than going in to work. The potential to...
  6. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Honestly I don't know how they get fed. If you...

    Honestly I don't know how they get fed. If you are a non-resident your designated quarantine location is your hotel and you are not allowed to leave or stop off on the way to or from. No car rentals,...
  7. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Fuck that. It's in peoples' cells. If your just...

    Fuck that. It's in peoples' cells. If your just going to accept that it's everywhere then cancel all efforts to slow the spread. Your doorway is no different than your state border and you should...
  8. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Hawaii has imposed a 14 day mandatory quarantine...

    Hawaii has imposed a 14 day mandatory quarantine for all arrivals. If they can do it Utah can, too. Might not be as easy, but just as legal.
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    How about a tent? Company I work with makes glove...

    How about a tent? Company I work with makes glove boxes for nuclear stuff that would keep caregivers' hands/arms covered. But it seems like a little frame and a clear plastic (disposable) sheet/bag...
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    2,605

    So what stops you from wearing something? Social...

    So what stops you from wearing something? Social stigma? Policy? Perception that only approved PPE has any effectivity?

    Serious question, not looking to shame you or anything. Just curious since...
  11. Replies
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    2,605

    That's fair, Jake. What's covering your nose and...

    That's fair, Jake. What's covering your nose and mouth holes?
  12. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Currently predicting peak death rate 15 days out...

    Currently predicting peak death rate 15 days out would imply we were at peak transmission 5 days ago (on average), right?

    Seems like a more granular view might be useful.
  13. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Do you actually think the amount of influx...

    Do you actually think the amount of influx doesn't matter? Math isn't this hard.
  14. Replies
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    So what are you wearing?

    So what are you wearing?
  15. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Seriously, WTF is wrong with you? Do you even...

    Seriously, WTF is wrong with you? Do you even ski? Skiers have masks.

    The thinnest of fabric masks will change the humidity in your nose and throat and help keep your defenses up, especially in...
  16. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Where are the bullshit meters? "Save masks for...

    Where are the bullshit meters?

    "Save masks for healthcare workers because they don't work" = bullshit

    "No new cases in China, nothing to see here, foreign press go home" = bullshit

    "I can't...
  17. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Kinda curious if Yeti's favorite homeless guy is...

    Kinda curious if Yeti's favorite homeless guy is available?
  18. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    In the spirit of your quest I'll offer my...

    In the spirit of your quest I'll offer my recollection of a bit of data I read someplace: researchers in Hubei checked the air for virus in a hospital or COVID ward or some such thing. They didn't...
  19. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Definitely driving an uptick in loonie futures ...

    Definitely driving an uptick in loonie futures


    https://youtu.be/oqRgISFuE0k
  20. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    That country would be the US. Plant was built by...

    That country would be the US. Plant was built by American companies. At least one of which is no longer in the business. Thankfully, because they did tons of that kind of stuff: "backups aren't...
  21. Replies
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    Poll: Well, that's the recommendation: sequester...

    Well, that's the recommendation: sequester infected people to their own room and give them their own bathroom etc if possible. Ouch.
  22. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    So you're saying nationally we have a lot of high...

    So you're saying nationally we have a lot of high deductible plans and really shitty coverage with high copays and low employer contributions.

    Checks out. Thank you, captain. Carry on.
  23. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Cool respirator design contest in that link....

    Cool respirator design contest in that link. Kinda sad if immediate crowd-sourced R&D for local production anywhere in the world can be bought for CAD$200k while GM negotiates in the billions to...
  24. Replies
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    Poll: Quantitative risk management. Odds of needing...

    Quantitative risk management. Odds of needing hospitalization are low, odds of both parents needing it are the square of that, which is not zero--could be 0.1%? So you multiply that probability by...
  25. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Definitely. The expert halo is just another...

    Definitely. The expert halo is just another example of Dunning-Krueger, and of course I'm not saying everyone in medicine is on the wrong side of that--more that those who aren't shouldn't have to...
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    Who's printing parts?

    Gotta be a few other tech talk maggots using Chinese robots to melt plastic into shapes. What you got?

    I've been using them (Prusas) at work to make tools but just got an Ender 3 Pro last week. A...
  27. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Spoiler alert: masks. It's masks.

    Spoiler alert: masks. It's masks.
  28. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    The blameworthy will blame others. Rule 1 is for...

    The blameworthy will blame others. Rule 1 is for all of us now.
  29. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    When do we talk about the export halo as applied...

    When do we talk about the export halo as applied to medicine? Lots of little gods running around, self-assurred/ears closed, and too often allowed to be the deciders by the smaller-of-ego (who could...
  30. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Thanks again for that! It's reassuring to see it...

    Thanks again for that! It's reassuring to see it from a credible source. Having pieced some of that together from numerous sources, I've told family and friends to use the toaster oven at 175 to...
  31. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    They have mask affinity and supply. They will...

    They have mask affinity and supply. They will bury us.
  32. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    No mask = no entry Crappy masks on everyone >...

    No mask = no entry

    Crappy masks on everyone > a really expensive mask on you
  33. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    If you can put the mask on the patient it's...

    If you can put the mask on the patient it's definitely a lot easier, yes. My frustrations with dentists are not relevant at all to the discussion of wearing masks in public.
  34. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    That article appears to have some applicable...

    That article appears to have some applicable studies in its reference list, but it's specifically focused on larger ("several micron") particles. As they state:



    Mofro has stated the relevant...
  35. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Evidently Providence in PDX is sending them out...

    Evidently Providence in PDX is sending them out to be "cleaned" as long as they're not heavily soiled and the company doing it claims to have proof they still work after, but I didn't catch how.

    I...
  36. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    I find myself kind of irritated with this...

    I find myself kind of irritated with this article: not one mention of the super obvious and meaningful fact that the gen pop in successful places wear masks in public all the time. It's a factor and...
  37. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    So don't let perfect be the enemy of good--but...

    So don't let perfect be the enemy of good--but don't let almost worthless be the enemy of better, either.

    We could flatten this thing a lot better (and somewhat cheaper) if they'd focus 1-2% of...
  38. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    "Prototype" mask made from T-shirts--dates to...

    "Prototype" mask made from T-shirts--dates to 2006.

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/6/05-1468_article
  39. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Not Very effective, perhaps, but better than...

    Not Very effective, perhaps, but better than nothing. Both arguments should be brought to bear. And just under $1 on amazon right now, just not immediately in stock.
  40. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Easiest thing to make has to be the pads for...

    Easiest thing to make has to be the pads for P100's and the like. And the virus is only 37% of the minimum size that N95's are intended to stop (95% of the time) anyway.
  41. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Cover your face with literally anything. A buff,...

    Cover your face with literally anything. A buff, for example.
  42. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Weak sauce. Bring real numbers showing how you...

    Weak sauce. Bring real numbers showing how you believe the cost of this response plays out versus lives saved or GTFO. Rhetorical "how much x for y??" without even an estimation offered is the mark...
  43. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    A step anyway, but maybe not game-changing--it's...

    A step anyway, but maybe not game-changing--it's a few pages back already:
  44. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    It's time we did a little calculation on this so...

    It's time we did a little calculation on this so we can put the nonsense to bed (and be more focused, too, if we were actually decision-makers beyond ourselves).

    What is an acceptable risk per...
  45. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Valid point. The occasional reading of ZH is...

    Valid point. The occasional reading of ZH is quite a bit different from re-posting it. Propaganda can be enlightening even when you know it's bullshit, and zerohedge carries a lot of water for Putin....
  46. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by jono
    Replies
    9,967
    Views
    370,168

    Not so much sanity as an ignorance of curve fits....

    Not so much sanity as an ignorance of curve fits. Which is kind of the definition of insanity these days.
  47. Replies
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    Poll: Nothing to reiterate protection from retaliation...

    Nothing to reiterate protection from retaliation when drivers actually do say they're tired?


    https://youtu.be/06NlJMuKpfY
  48. Replies
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    Unless 3% of homeowners die all of a sudden and...

    Unless 3% of homeowners die all of a sudden and flood the market and birth rates stay low and immigration reverses so rents don't rise.

    I'm not predicting it, but conditions change. Who knows,...
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    At least the ones they use aren't being hoarded....

    At least the ones they use aren't being hoarded. Given the exponential growth and their contact with the public, keeping bus drivers from being vectors (especially early on) is a very helpful move....
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    White house staffer reads at least page one of...

    White house staffer reads at least page one of Chinese Rat Flu thread. Local maggots and SJWs take offense.
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