I really appreciate all the input. This has been interesting, especially in contrast with discussions at home .



That may have been the developer's intention and how the tools are perceived in...

uhhh. I don't think I understand what you mean. Bayesian problem as in a logical cause and effect issue? "Statistical" is perhaps the wrong word for the methods in question, maybe "empirical" would...

No, that part is misleading in that link. You are supposed to avoid the Northern aspects, not seek them out. You can apply the reduction factors if you are NOT on Northern sector/half sector slopes....

Yeah that is an old issue that seems to come up every so often. I understand that especially when deciding between 3 and 4 this comes into play and different countries tend to use the danger scale a...

I now feel compelled to point out that the majority of guides here, much like everywhere else, are reasonable and intelligent people, who are entirely capable of having a conversation about risk...

Ah, yeah, this one. 2 dead, 4 caught, group of 10 from the Netherlands, also with a guide. They had taken a break, dug a pit and decided to continue with larger distances. They then remote triggered...

Yes, something like that. The problems of the current snow situation are not really that much of an outlier compared with the last few seasons, but compared to the typical winter of the 1980s (when I...

Okay, so I have more questions about the Avaluator. Our methods essentially come down to a danger level / slope angle relation (if danger level > x, stay below angle y). There are other components...

Interesting take on the cultural issues. I suspect another issue is that at least in the past for many regions of the US the forecasts were not regionally detailed enough to apply Munter's stuff....

Yes, good point and I think this is the core issue we have been having. We are on our third winter with a sketchy persistent weak layer issue and it is still catching people off guard. More than...

Yes the bulletin did specifically mention exactly what and where the problem was. Neither the 3x3 nor the reduction method say anything explicitly about this type of problem. Of course they encourage...

davidof: I would say it is a decision aid based on an understanding of the probability you have of triggering an avalanche in a random slope for a given danger level. What Munter says is that if you...

Your chances are a lot better than when tossing a coin if you do it by the book, but yes, it comes down to probability rather than a personal analysis of the snow pack. Munter and the others (Snow...

By statistical methods I mean Munter's reduction or 3x3 method and all the variations of this approach. I would be curious to hear what non-europeans think of it.

In german speaking Europe, Munter...