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Type: Posts; User: 4matic

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  1. Replies
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    If funds were in any of the derivative products...

    If funds were in any of the derivative products or crypto and anything other than a USD money market FDIC fund I doubt they are covered.
  2. Replies
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    Thatís good direction Bob. Growth speculation...

    Thatís good direction Bob. Growth speculation will return at some point.
  3. Thread: Ukraine

    by 4matic
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    484,638

    Probably shitty guided but the wide range of...

    Probably shitty guided but the wide range of error makes it just as dumb and maniacal
  4. Thread: Ukraine

    by 4matic
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    484,638

    Using a dumb missle to target a precise location...

    Using a dumb missle to target a precise location in a heavily populated area is targeting civilians.
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Iíve never read any of the client agreements but Iím also a bit put off that the FBI and other enforcement agencies are trying to clean it up. Isnít decentralized autonomy a feature? Risks were...
  6. Thread: Ukraine

    by 4matic
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    8,338
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    484,638

    Wheat is at the lowest price since 2/21 and near...

    Wheat is at the lowest price since 2/21 and near its January high. If Ukraine grain does hit the market grain prices could collapse.
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Considering the news BTC is holding up pretty well. Maybe the liquidation sales have mostly been made.

    Iím hearing more about unmet margin calls. I canít see any path for these unregulated...
  8. Thread: Ukraine

    by 4matic
    Replies
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    484,638

    Itís not so simple to military escort grain...

    Itís not so simple to military escort grain ships. The ship still has to be insured.
  9. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    The current 10y note yield rate hit 3.50% on 6/13 and got as low as 2.87% today.
    350-287=63 so thatís .63% interest rate change lower from the peak to trough in two weeks. Same formula for the 2yr....
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    ďTrack your portfolioĒ.

    ďTrack your portfolioĒ.
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    10y is down 65bps from its high 2y is down 50bp...

    10y is down 65bps from its high
    2y is down 50bp from its high

    Pretty good reversal of trend.
  12. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    On a $5b (thatís billion) valuation from 3 months ago?

    Foreclosing on the $250 million loan
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    Bankman-Fried is like the old Warren Buffett. He...

    Bankman-Fried is like the old Warren Buffett. He can buy these failing companies and squeeze enough cash flow out of them while strengthening his other businesses.
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    The blockfi acquisition looks like a foreclosure.

    The blockfi acquisition looks like a foreclosure.
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    CEL token is still up 300% from 2019 so thereís...

    CEL token is still up 300% from 2019 so thereís hope I suppose. Still way outperformed stonks. Right?
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    I didnít claim a right or wrong.

    I didnít claim a right or wrong.
  17. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Dec delivery is down 9% today
  18. Replies
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    Nat gas is almost back to Oct 21 levels.

    Nat gas is almost back to Oct 21 levels.
  19. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
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    72,762

    Can make a case for a H&S top in gasoline chart...

    Can make a case for a H&S top in gasoline chart but thereís decent support below the left shoulder. Down another .21c today
  20. Replies
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    Why not punch a 9i? Shortening backswing should...

    Why not punch a 9i? Shortening backswing should help control your irons
  21. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
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    72,762

    Volume is concentrated in 90 days of delivery so...

    Volume is concentrated in 90 days of delivery so mostly used as a short term hedge. So, the volatility will occur in the front months and move more daily than the back months. Eventually they...
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    ďAssets?Ē Like leveraged loans? Itís all one...

    ďAssets?Ē Like leveraged loans? Itís all one giant derivative contract. Itís completely opaque what they actually have in reserve.
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Demand for options from largest hedgers is down therefore price of options is down which means lower price of volatility.

    Options are complicated math but thatís the simple explanation. ...
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    They have to auction to highest bidder? GS...

    They have to auction to highest bidder? GS could step in pre BK but donít think theyíd want any custodial liability
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    There could be a miracle 100% rally in assets to...

    There could be a miracle 100% rally in assets to bail them out.
  26. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    CNBC discussion about an hour ago. There is no path out. Their only solution is open up and no one sells. Thatís not happening.

    Itís what their lawyers want?

    ďCelsius, dogged by a...
  27. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Technically, when something bounces around the lows after a big decline it usually goes lower because a market doesnít give you that much time to buy the low. Or, it moves sidewise and develops a...
  28. Thread: Wagon Stoke

    by 4matic
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    Took the E500 to Americas Tire for rotate and...

    Took the E500 to Americas Tire for rotate and balance. I was surprised when the kids gathered round for a look and thumbs up. V8 wagon still getting it done 420231
  29. Replies
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    Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers...

    Bloomberg saying VIX is low because large hedgers are using futures for pure directional beta rather than options. Record short interest in stock futures.
  30. Thread: Kitty Stoke

    by 4matic
    Replies
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    Love a cat with a broken tooth. Life lived.

    Love a cat with a broken tooth. Life lived.
  31. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
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    72,762

    My V8 wagon with 187k miles has original plugs...

    My V8 wagon with 187k miles has original plugs and coils and still gets itís epa designated fuel economy. Rock solid idle.
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    Simple Monetary theory has been largely dismissed.

    Simple Monetary theory has been largely dismissed.
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    Crew are employees.

    Crew are employees.
  34. Replies
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    Real Estate Crash thread

    If PPP money obtained legally was used to buy ďtoysĒ that was the intention. Stimulus. A yacht needs a lot of downstream support.
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    Rated on the Ogden scale?

    Rated on the Ogden scale?
  36. Replies
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    Itís not the BTC, itís the irresponsibility with...

    Itís not the BTC, itís the irresponsibility with sovereign assets in speculative investments:

    El Salvador bet its economic salvation on bitcoin, but so far the gamble isnít paying off like...
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    Laser is most beneficial for ancillary distances:...

    Laser is most beneficial for ancillary distances: traps , front of green, layups, carry distance.

    I donít mind first to the tee calling out a flag yardage. It can help speed up play.
  38. Thread: Fuel Prices.

    by 4matic
    Replies
    1,197
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    72,762

    I think itís reasonable to forego summer blend...

    I think itís reasonable to forego summer blend early this year.
  39. Replies
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    Yeah, I played with some div1 college kids a few...

    Yeah, I played with some div1 college kids a few years ago. Itís a different game.
  40. Replies
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    Whatís the interest rate on your margin?

    Whatís the interest rate on your margin?
  41. Replies
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    BTC has a long way to fall if that is prevailing...

    BTC has a long way to fall if that is prevailing thought because it shows complete lack of comprehension of what bonds are.
  42. Replies
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    Thereís your bitcoin buyer presenting the new...

    Thereís your bitcoin buyer presenting the new world of finance
  43. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    So, Bond rates went to negative yield because people were optimistic about the future?

    Also, your chart is a constant maturity yield chart. Not really a bond chart.
  44. Replies
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    Bitcoin....who's gotten into it?

    Not true. BTC is accounted as a mark to market asset and loss. Bonds are not.
  45. Replies
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    Bonds also have a maturity date which provide...

    Bonds also have a maturity date which provide return of capital. Itís the definition of a paper loss.
  46. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Copper was 30% lower than it is now pre-pandemic and is working on 13 straight days of decline.

    RIO dividend @13% is pretty attractive
  47. Replies
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    Wheat and corn are down 20% from recent high. ...

    Wheat and corn are down 20% from recent high. Corn is down 6% today. Nat Gas is down another 9%, 30% below itís recent high
  48. Replies
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    2y rate crashes back below 3%. Down 50bp from its recent high. 10y on the verge. 3% is support for the 10y so Iíd like to see a close or three below. At this point an aggressive Fed move will...
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Xpeng, $XPEV has an average analyst price of $280. Trading at $30. Watched a review on the p7 that sells for $35k. Impressive package.

    Another interesting stock is JOBY trading at $5. Itís...
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    August WTI is the only month over $100 now 20...

    August WTI is the only month over $100 now

    20 month low in copper.

    Corn and Wheat at risk for much larger declines.
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