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04-17-2024, 07:47 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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....and this is basically many HOAs and the...
....and this is basically many HOAs and the insurance issue in a nut shell. Frequently there is shit tons of deference maintenance, no accounting/depreciation schedule, no due diligence by...
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04-16-2024, 08:00 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Insurance is a mind fuck because it is a game you...
Insurance is a mind fuck because it is a game you are trying to lose.
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04-11-2024, 07:53 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Really what you are buying with insurance is a...
Really what you are buying with insurance is a reduction of volatility. Absent the low probability high pay out event, the NPV of the decision will be negative. Many people can't self insure...
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04-04-2024, 08:16 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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The clause I've always thought about is making to...
The clause I've always thought about is making to the listing agent but a fuse on their contract. As in, "you tell me what the listing price is and you tell me how long you need to sell it".
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03-21-2024, 10:02 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Didn't read the lawsuit, not gonna play expert. ...
Didn't read the lawsuit, not gonna play expert. Tell me how it would effect this scenario.
House is FSBO, Buyers agent won't show property to customer because seller won't pay the 3%.
Besides... -
03-17-2024, 09:20 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Commissions are a cost of the transaction. These...
Commissions are a cost of the transaction. These costs are born by the market and lead to reduces mobility sales. Good Realtors should support increased barriers to entry for their profession to...
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01-31-2024, 12:59 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Really the best thing the developers have going...
Really the best thing the developers have going is the Karen's. The NIMBY bitches are so universally unlikable, that the binary alternative usually looks pleasant. That said, good Karen on Karen...
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01-31-2024, 10:21 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Ha...Breck, Moab, Winter Park All sucking on...
Ha...Breck, Moab, Winter Park
All sucking on the Assessed Value cock. Just because it's hard, doesn't mean it is complicated. If you want something new and shiny or your name on the outside of... -
01-30-2024, 09:07 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I think he means 29%. Colorado has a bit of a...
I think he means 29%. Colorado has a bit of a fucked system. Basically, commercial property is taxed about 4x higher than residential. In my world, it such for small time contractors or other Mom &...
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01-25-2024, 12:32 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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What state? How long have the covenant been in...
What state? How long have the covenant been in place and what was the threshold for approval? I think the challenges in Colorado is that a. too many owners are pro STRs to pass the super majority...
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01-24-2024, 11:21 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I mean it does create rentable beds. But it...
I mean it does create rentable beds. But it should be available to anyone not just current STRs. And having the employer to the party on the rental contract is a bit much for me. And it is totally...
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01-24-2024, 10:11 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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People love to say no but really their is little...
People love to say no but really their is little financial incentive to LTR. Plenty of renters I know have had their LTRs converted to STRs and now have to compete for a smaller pool of LTRs.
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01-24-2024, 09:20 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I think that's right. Plenty of people manage...
I think that's right. Plenty of people manage their place with a price floor. As the weekend comes, if the weather looks questionable, the price drops.
Around here, your neighbor is your... -
01-24-2024, 08:31 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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So I'm cruising the web drinking coffee and a...
So I'm cruising the web drinking coffee and a say, "hey, that's not a bad price for a rental"...oops that's per night not per month. ...
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01-10-2024, 12:49 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I agree with all of that. Its part of what make...
I agree with all of that. Its part of what make the TV scene and prices even more insane. I've told the story before. A couple of my best friends moved there for higher teacher wages (WY), lower...
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01-10-2024, 11:22 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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But here is Grand County, USA it sure doesn't...
But here is Grand County, USA it sure doesn't seem like things are falling off a cliff? Maybe things are moderating both on the new construction and resale side of things? I really think that ski...
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12-17-2023, 10:09 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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They know no shame. When push comes to shove,...
They know no shame. When push comes to shove, they'll come with all of the classist, fuck you I've got mine bullshit you can imagine. I've detailed it in this thread, but in my downvalley hood, the...
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12-10-2023, 07:45 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Hustle Culture and Shitbag Culture are...
Hustle Culture and Shitbag Culture are tangential. Often times, people cross into the Shitbag realm with no self awareness. Its a strange place to operate. I see it all the time in the contracting...
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12-06-2023, 06:32 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I think it would be more like, you buy 100 houses...
I think it would be more like, you buy 100 houses in your target (undervalued - rent, price, both) and slowly rent or sell such that only a few are available for rent each month. Once the rental...
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12-06-2023, 05:26 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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GC, the algorithmic buying attempts to identify...
GC, the algorithmic buying attempts to identify unique properties/'hood with more substitutability. That's part of the game. But the strategies I've seen are to either flip the house or rent. It's...
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12-06-2023, 05:07 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/04/13/104922...
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/04/13/1049227/house-flipping-algorithms-are-coming-to-your-neighborhood/
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12-06-2023, 04:55 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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OK, its a start. Now create you own version of...
OK, its a start. Now create you own version of the future and tell me now the strategy makes money. You get to pick the time horizon, the interest rate path, and so on. You can tell me the size of...
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12-05-2023, 08:08 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Seriously? Throw out a zip code or something. As...
Seriously? Throw out a zip code or something. As mentioned, the transaction history is part of the public record. I how TGR is the bleeding edge, but I'd think this would get a bit more play.
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12-05-2023, 11:27 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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That's a bit of a softer message than your last...
That's a bit of a softer message than your last response and I appreciate that.
If you want to make it conspiracy theory, that's on you. Property ownership is on public record and is scraped by... -
12-05-2023, 11:10 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Buy and hold residential real-estate investing is...
Buy and hold residential real-estate investing is really available to anyone with either the capital or the means to borrow.
But capital ain't free and the risk ain't zero. So color me in the... -
12-04-2023, 05:33 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Thanks Art for enunciating their strategy without...
Thanks Art for enunciating their strategy without spitting on yourself or telling me I was too dumb to understand it. I'm not sure I buy the "safe return > money market" part. But I also don't buy...
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12-01-2023, 04:23 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Look buddy, maybe tone down the rhetoric. Perhaps...
Look buddy, maybe tone down the rhetoric. Perhaps part of the reason I don't understand it is because you can't explain it.
I'm not claiming to has the answers but I'm also not the smartest guy in... -
12-01-2023, 03:08 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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So, in order to make 10% annual return on a $500k...
So, in order to make 10% annual return on a $500k house over 10years, excluding pesky things like maintenance, utilities, taxes and insurance, you'd have to sell it for $1.2million just so ya'll know...
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12-01-2023, 11:35 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Just so you know, Mom and Pop Landords do the...
Just so you know, Mom and Pop Landords do the exact same shit. Maybe more empathy, maybe not.
It's really easy to create an enemy and pin all kinds of problems on them, but that doesn't make it... -
12-01-2023, 11:03 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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No shit...but what exactly does that have to do...
No shit...but what exactly does that have to do with your hypothesis above?
When we fall trap to the Golden Age of Bullshit we become part of the problem.
Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed... -
12-01-2023, 10:10 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I'm not even saying the theory is wrong. I'm just...
I'm not even saying the theory is wrong. I'm just saying "show your work" in addition to some frothy mouthed word sald hot take.
Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse -
12-01-2023, 09:34 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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So by "leveraging debt" I assume you mean...
So by "leveraging debt" I assume you mean borrowing in the capital markets to buy residential real estate.
Let's say you've got a 10 year time horizon and you want to build a $100million... -
12-01-2023, 09:13 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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So RE to the moon! I'm sure their are undervalued...
So RE to the moon! I'm sure their are undervalued markets. Next time you talk to the sharps let me know what they says.
Remember, even the cash buyer needs a return. As mentioned up thread, I'm... -
12-01-2023, 08:52 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Sorry. low supply was want I meant. I'm just...
Sorry. low supply was want I meant.
I'm just trying to understand the game and I'm not sure where paying above fair value to have them sit empty fits in.
Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed... -
12-01-2023, 07:55 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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So the institutional investors are buy and hold...
So the institutional investors are buy and hold passive investors in single family homes. They are activtly reducing supply by just letting them sit. Then they selectively rent them at artificially...
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11-30-2023, 09:22 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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The stupid #I'vegotaplaceinfraser...
The stupid #I'vegotaplaceinfraser #howlonghaveyoulivedhere #irememberwhen crowd looks at me cross eyed when I tell 'em you didn't used to be able to by under wear in this town.
You can't put the... -
11-30-2023, 08:51 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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There are many good reasons to pay off a mortgage...
There are many good reasons to pay off a mortgage but less so in a rising rate environment.
I think Amazon Prime is also contributing to the run up in non-urban/suburban real estate. Its like the... -
11-29-2023, 03:19 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Well yeah. they can't afford Real Estate in...
Well yeah. they can't afford Real Estate in Mountain Towns. Maybe RV Parks are the answer?
Gonna need more shitters at the rec center. Seriously.
Sent from my Turbo 850 Flatbrimed Highhorse -
11-29-2023, 12:47 PM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I don't know about that. I think for a lot of...
I don't know about that. I think for a lot of industries, it may help the staffing and affordability challenges. No it doesn't offer the prospects of single family home living or equity creation or...
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11-29-2023, 11:59 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I'd like to live in that world. Let me see, if I...
I'd like to live in that world. Let me see, if I got it right.
Grocery Store employees $50/hr.
Patrollers $60/hr. full time year around
X Ray Techs/EMS/Teachers/Fire/Police $150k+/yr.
... -
11-29-2023, 11:35 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Fair enough Neckdeep. I know Teton Valley is...
Fair enough Neckdeep. I know Teton Valley is pretty special in the WSJ, Outside Mag top 10 and so on. I mean, how can you resist!...
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11-29-2023, 08:59 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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Yeah, supply. That's my take also. Can...
Yeah, supply. That's my take also.
Can somebody explain how the "dirt pimps" are responsible for for the lack of affordability.
And for the Tract Home Development in the Mountains concept,... -
11-29-2023, 07:26 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I'll keep you updated on this...
I'll keep you updated on this https://www.skyhinews.com/news/u-s-forest-service-to-hold-public-meeting-about-potential-willow-creek-land-exchange/
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11-29-2023, 07:23 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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The only perspective you can have is your...
The only perspective you can have is your own...is guess.
Leavenworth Skier
a. Without context, "My" assumes you own the company which I don't think is the case
b. Good on you for gaining... -
11-28-2023, 11:26 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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6 figures? What's the first number? Is you...
6 figures? What's the first number?
Is you think it's all gonna be the same in 20 years, rewind to 2003 and let me know if you saw this all coming.
The WFHrs that can't really explain to me... -
11-28-2023, 10:45 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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6 figures? What's the first number? Is you...
6 figures? What's the first number?
Is you think it's all gonna be the same in 20 years, rewind to 2003 and let me know if you saw this all coming.
The WFHrs that can't really explain to me... -
11-28-2023, 09:50 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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You know what's laughable? Thinking that a...
You know what's laughable? Thinking that a majority of the population can afford to live somewhere cool, irrespective of their age and whether the WFH.
I'm guessing the people that say others... -
11-28-2023, 09:10 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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In the mountains, it rolls downhill...or should I...
In the mountains, it rolls downhill...or should I say down valley.
The equity has to go somewhere. And people have to live somewhere also.
The awesome HCL places are only awesome is you can... -
11-28-2023, 08:39 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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I don't disagree with your path for where the...
I don't disagree with your path for where the WFH'rs will live but your doomsday scenario is only one version of the future. Things to consider:
are the WFH wages sustainable relative to IRL... -
11-28-2023, 07:08 AM
Thread: Real Estate Crash thread
by Foggy_Goggles- Replies
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No. It is not not true. And no. Some people do...
No. It is not not true. And no. Some people do want to live there. But there is more affordable real estate in places like NW MT, NW CO and all over WY, ID, UT and elsewhere in the intermountain...
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