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  1. Replies
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    Heh, the impeachment trial was a prelude showing...

    Heh, the impeachment trial was a prelude showing how Trump would handle the epidemic: it's a media hoax, a nothingburger, a dem conspiracy.
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    I'm also dubious after seeing huckbucket's...

    I'm also dubious after seeing huckbucket's numbers but if you chart those numbers on a logarithmic scale and estimate the doubling time then it looks like the curve is flattening, but is by no means...
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    Maybe, but the SARS-CoV-2 viral entryway is the...

    Maybe, but the SARS-CoV-2 viral entryway is the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, or ACE2 receptor. That's a universal human biological component. The virus has a spike protein that uses the ACE2...
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    There appears to be sufficient evidence to...

    There appears to be sufficient evidence to conclude the curve in New York City is flattening. The report linked below sets forth the evidence for–and against–this preliminary but potentially...
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    This first 30 minutes of the virology podcast...

    This first 30 minutes of the virology podcast linked below features Daniel Griffin, MD, a New York doctor describing the situation on the ground. He says 50% of ventilated patients have survived so...
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    The examples from other countries begs the...

    The examples from other countries begs the question of how the U.S. is determining the overall mortality impact of the epidemic.
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    Yeah, there's skepticism about deaths too because...

    Yeah, there's skepticism about deaths too because some countries have seen a substantial increase in deaths due to pneumonia for example, but not attributed to COVID-19. It's either coincidence,...
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    George-mutha-f'n-Washington used variolation at...

    George-mutha-f'n-Washington used variolation at Valley Forge to save the Continental Army from a smallpox outbreak.


    Also, sort of related is a correlation between countries with mandatory...
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    huckbucket posted a NewYorker article about the...

    huckbucket posted a NewYorker article about the history of vaccination, notably small pox. Before modern vaccination, practitioners would purposely infect a person with a small amount of a disease in...
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    Absolutely Mission Impossible Drägerwerk is a...

    Absolutely Mission Impossible

    Drägerwerk is a world leader in the production of ventilators. In an interview, company head Stefan Dräger, 57, discusses the challenges of keeping up with current...
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRU-6vaKaf4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRU-6vaKaf4
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    While this disease will likely accelerate deaths...

    While this disease will likely accelerate deaths that might have been imminent, it's worth keeping in mind the next time you compare COVID-19 with the flu or falling down stairs that COVID-19 is new...
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    Yeah, it looks like the reproduction number (R0)...

    Yeah, it looks like the reproduction number (R0) was revised upwards a bit due to faster than expected spread, absent intervention.
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    In the unlikely event anyone is reading Spats's...

    In the unlikely event anyone is reading Spats's posts, the Ferguson was study was discussed here yesterday. The estimates aren't so much revised (or quietly walked back, lol) as they are a...
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    Not just economic collapse, the way a lot of...

    Not just economic collapse, the way a lot of projects are financed forces somewhat stringent timelines. Once stopped, makes it difficult to restart. If that's what it takes to protect workers then...
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    A good read. Uncertainty creates an alternative...

    A good read. Uncertainty creates an alternative facts problem. The bottom line:

    1. We need more data
    2. The data might show extensive lockdowns and quarantines are not worth the costs

    The...
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    Yeah, given a choice better to get sick when...

    Yeah, given a choice better to get sick when resources are available. But FWIW, early on doctors followed SOP: 1) first oxygen 2) then BiPap machine to push air 3) and finally a ventilator. Now...
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPXWt2ESxVY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPXWt2ESxVY
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    He should somehow be able to capitalize on his...

    He should somehow be able to capitalize on his antibodies. Give him a job at a hospital, for example.

    He and the article, though, missed the obvious Jordan reference: he won the flu game.
    ...
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    Good news if it's true, but it appears to be a...

    Good news if it's true, but it appears to be a case of misreporting hypothetical model scenarios as fact:

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity
    ...
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    During the Spanish flu the California governor...

    During the Spanish flu the California governor said it was the “patriotic duty of every American citizen” to wear a mask and San Francisco passed an ordinance requiring masks in public. The police...
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    I hope for the best but I think it's likely Japan...

    I hope for the best but I think it's likely Japan is in worse shape than the outside world realizes. If bowing and masks do end up working then we should embrace their customs and discard ours as...
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    KQ was ahead of the curve on the dilemmas we're...

    KQ was ahead of the curve on the dilemmas we're all going to face.
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    Like you, I'm in the let it ride camp but that...

    Like you, I'm in the let it ride camp but that might not be a good idea with COVID-19. FWIW, Aspirin might be safer than NSAIDs but at this point it's all uncharted territory and from what I've read...
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    I think it's a strategy. President Trump is...

    I think it's a strategy. President Trump is branding himself as the open things back up miracle cure guy not the take responsibility for the failed response guy. That's for the governors and public...
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    A new study indicates Hydroxychloroquine as a...

    A new study indicates Hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for coronavirus is no more effective than conventional care. Hopefully we see better results with more research, but it’s disappointing.
    ...
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    Better testing which allows for early treatment...

    Better testing which allows for early treatment is probably the most important reason why Germany and SK are doing better. That's really what matters in the context of what's happening here in...
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    Common Deebased, grow up. You originally wrote...

    Common Deebased, grow up. You originally wrote there was only a "20% (symptomatic rate)" which does not mean 80% are a asymptomatic because mild symptoms, are symptoms.


    And also, just a few...
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    1) No, you made the number up. Your quote...

    1) No, you made the number up. Your quote includes mild cases which by definition includes symptoms. That's also true for some % of undocumented. You are trying to lump mild and undocumented together...
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    Your number are made up. Not only does your...

    Your number are made up. Not only does your source not say there's only a 20% symptomatic rate, but undocumented and mild is not the same thing as asymptomatic which you've attempted to lump together...
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    WRT the flu vs COVID-19 death rate from the...

    WRT the flu vs COVID-19 death rate from the previous page: the CDC death rate for influenze is Symptomatic Illnesses / Deaths = ~.01%.

    So comparing asymptomatic COVID-19 with symptomatic flu...
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    I personally wouldn't take any NSAIDs but the...

    I personally wouldn't take any NSAIDs but the evidence is inconclusive and physicians opinions are split.
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    Agreed, if the numbers pan out then it is...

    Agreed, if the numbers pan out then it is reassuring for those of us in low risk groups who also have access to emergency care should the need arise. Heart and lung damage is still a concern for...
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    Fatality risk is just one metric. Every year...

    Fatality risk is just one metric. Every year somewhere between 5% to 20% of the U.S. population gets the flu. The percentages aren't higher because some people are vaccinated and there's also some...
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    He already has...

    He already has.

    COLLINS: Who suggested Easter? Who suggested that day?

    TRUMP: I just thought it was a beautiful time. A beautiful time. A beautiful timeline. It’s a great day.


    The White...
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    It's too late to blow the bridges. It's not clear...

    It's too late to blow the bridges. It's not clear how NY managed to do it, but they substantially increased their testing capability. So it's probably a combination of things being bad in NY and...
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    Something to keep an eye on is how the Y-axis on...

    Something to keep an eye on is how the Y-axis on Huckbucket's charts keeps changing. March 15 the Y-axis was 10-3000, March 21 10-5000, and now it's 10-10000 with cumulative cases Y-axis now showing...
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    That, and a person living in Basalt Colorado with...

    That, and a person living in Basalt Colorado with a population of around 4K should at least try to get some perspective on policies meant to address populations in the millions during a health crisis.
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    Your cardiologist probably told this outright, as...

    Your cardiologist probably told this outright, as your post implies, but just in case: COVID-19 is particularly bad for people with heart issues.

    Fast abnormal heart rhythms were responsible for...
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    Mofro, Huckbucket, and all the other mags with...

    Mofro, Huckbucket, and all the other mags with expertise are better qualified to answer but in a nutshell a virus mutates due to natural selection and predicting evolution is hard. But as long as...
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    Part of the early discussion was about how...

    Part of the early discussion was about how transmissibility estimates are not set in stone. How an effective infection control intervention along with people themselves adopting risk reducing...
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    A new paper on Italy indicates before the...

    A new paper on Italy indicates before the lockdown on March 8 R0 (R naught, the average number of people who will catch a disease from one contagious person) was 4.04 (90% CI: 4.03-4.05). The...
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    The big knock against the original Stimulus Bill...

    The big knock against the original Stimulus Bill proposal was it gave President Trump too much control over where the money went. People credibly talk about using the funds to bail out his own...
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    As one of the no worse than the flu people,...

    As one of the no worse than the flu people, you're late to the party on rapid tests and antibody testing. China had/has cases throughout the country which it manages through testing while still...
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    FWIW, it's probably too late to do something...

    FWIW, it's probably too late to do something similar, but China established a cordon sanitaire surrounding the Hubei province and then sent in 40,000 health care workers along with medical supplies...
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    February 26th, 2020. President Trump: “When you...

    February 26th, 2020. President Trump: “When you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

    March 23rd, 2020....
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    Re Trump, it's probably safe to assume the secret...

    Re Trump, it's probably safe to assume the secret service is checking temps before people are allowed to get close, staff are constantly cleaning any surfaces Trump might touch, and everyone who...
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    Stucco can be brick underneath and brick can be a...

    Stucco can be brick underneath and brick can be a facade, not what holds the building up. Multi-wythe brick or URM is the biggest concern. One way find out is to look in your attic where the rafters...
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    Agreed. The main benefit of short term...

    Agreed. The main benefit of short term overreaction, which denying prevents, is it drops the hammer on virus spread so that disease control (local, state, federal CDC) can perform targeted testing,...
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    The COVID-19 denier crowd are biding their time...

    The COVID-19 denier crowd are biding their time for when this is brought under control so they can say "see, I told you so, no worse than the flu. Look at the death #s!!!"
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