Stocks still higher than the March 12th low.

edit: Nasdaq anyhow

^^Lyn Alden is sharp, like her work.

Every dollar the Fed prints to monetize Federal or Private debt is capital shielded from creative destruction. As that's where new ideas & productivity come...

4matic - how heavily invested in Chinese securities are you? As I understand it you'r 75% USD with some US bonds.

No, other currencies fail, then dollar fails. TRY, BRL, JPY, EUR, GBP already moving in this direction. Dollar flight is not purely an expression of confidence/reserve currency flight. Much of it is...

I like SQ, KL. Planning to start slowly averaging into them next month.

SPY long term chart with profile. 133 retest is a good best case scenario, I think. If things get bad it could dig in further.

The concerning thing from my perspective is that I don't see evidence...

Sustaining the current housing ownership situation is going to require a federal bailout and large-scale mortgage work-outs via lowered principle. That will not go over well with those priced out....

The real estate alchemy thesis depends on asset-inflationary economic policy (see 1920s, 2000s & 2010s), which has largely run its course in the USA. The transition to UBI is evidence of this tonal...

Demographic atrophy is definitely a headwind.

GFC caused GDP to dip about 4-5%ish. 9/11 less than that. This is looking like a 25% hit in the US. And with severe global funding issues as ex-US...

My bad, it's Goldman Sachs GDP forecast.

This is going to make 08 look like a boom year. Thoughts & prayers for the levered utopians.

:eek:


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The only problem with dumpster diving right now is that we're in an early phase of simultaneous global currency, sovereign debt, corporate debt, supply chain, labor market, political and public...

The indexes just. can't. bounce. Half a dozen attempts the past few days and still nothing.

^^Oil trusts have been on my radar for a bit as well. Low/no debt, royalty-based dividend distribution. Even if operators go under the creditors will maximize cash flow. Key is to find one with...

With decimation of the Canadian oil patch, what happens to transfer payments to the eastern provinces? Alberta the 51st state?

If humans are involved, it won't be a point A - point B 1-time repricing of risk without mistakes. Humans add noise & irrational pivots, so severe selloff -> desperate relief rally --> oh my god it's...

By bottom I mean bottom of the first inning of the bear market. Down 30%, up 15%, down 30%, up 20%, down 25%, etc.

The market essentially bottomed 3/12 with afew minor undercuts to trap shorts. Rally of 20% very possible, but don't think the epoch is over once it's underway. Sell into the rally & raise cash to go...

Followed by a 7.5% drop while I walked my dog.

Buy-back ban is on the table in house bill

26. Temporary Ban on Stock Buybacks and Dividends. This provision would impose a temporaryban on corporate stock repurchase activities and paying...

Futures limit up.

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Carney's speech was specific in noting the disequilibrium inherent in a dollar-based international financial system. Framing it as a bubble or no bubble is silly & parallel to the point, which is...

I wished for the collapse of the dollar, twice late last year before Christmas.

But it had nothing to do with spite for Trump.

BREAKING: GIANT METEOR 2020 MOVING AHEAD IN THE POLLS

TLT down 6% yesterday, down 5% today. Still up YTD, but serious downside volatility for a 20yr government bond ETF.

Mark Carney (BoE) in JH last year. COVID is the realization of a preexisting, clearly defined risk.


...

You are paid to believe in the nature of the modern economy, so your defense is understandable. But modern economics is really just a revival of ancient themes (debt-fueled speculation followed by...

Banks (BKX) Transports (DJT) and small caps (RTY) are all well below Trump Nov 16 levels. As they're primary risk and fundamental indicators, I think it's safe to say that the Trump bump is more than...

TLT 20yr USTs: -2%
S&P500: -4%

DXY +1.4%

So everyone's assets are crashing and the currency they have to service debts with is surging.

credit suisse

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Futures are eating up whatever's happening in D.C. tonight. Lords of corporatism are fluffing the deputies assigned to oversee the printing press.

This might be a 20% bounce. Don't forget to sell...

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RBOB has been destroyed. Gotta think starting to average into UGA now through peak-US fear will be profitable.

attn dip buyers

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Treasuries & chill™ is too legit to quit