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  1. Replies
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    Yeah, the counterintuitive thing is how long it...

    Yeah, the counterintuitive thing is how long it takes before it looks like anything is happening. For the 30 day pond it takes until day 24 for more than 1% of the pond to be covered:

    Day 20:...
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    I attempted without success uploading an...

    I attempted without success uploading an attachment in another thread, too. It was a meta analysis comparison of UK COVID-19 with viral pneumonia in a critical care setting. Some takeaways:

    -...
  3. Our President should do the decent thing and...

    Our President should do the decent thing and resign so that the mayor from Jaws can take charge, the mayor would be a little faster to respond.
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    A summary: America leads in coronavirus cases,...

    A summary: America leads in coronavirus cases, but not pandemic response
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    The send off for Captain Brett Crozier: ...

    The send off for Captain Brett Crozier:

    https://twitter.com/The_UnSilent_/status/1246042796714147840
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    This is probably not the only place Spats is...

    This is probably not the only place Spats is posting. The whole correcting the record "I've seen this misinformation posted here" routine, when it hasn't been, reads like social media political...
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    Speaking of Major League, how did the Astros not...

    Speaking of Major League, how did the Astros not know this was on its way?!
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    As in the food here is terrible. And the portions...

    As in the food here is terrible. And the portions are small!
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    Not that long ago the United States was the best,...

    Not that long ago the United States was the best, as in the first to respond, and the country everyone else looked to for leadership during an outbreak. The preparedness exercises that took place...
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    ESPN and Netflix internationally will release the...

    ESPN and Netflix internationally will release the 'The Last Dance' documentary about Chicago's 1997-98 championship campaign ahead of schedule on Sunday, April 19.


    ...
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    At 3:38 a.m. Wednesday morning, the New England...

    At 3:38 a.m. Wednesday morning, the New England Patriots' team plane departed from an unusual locale: Shenzhen, China. On board the Boeing 767, in the cargo hold that used to be home to Tom Brady's...
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    While everyone else worries about COVID-19, Pats...

    While everyone else worries about COVID-19, Pats fans are ravaged by TB12.
  13. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmqswLKKYyU&featur...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rmqswLKKYyU&feature=emb_logo
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    You are confused. Even setting aside the public...

    You are confused. Even setting aside the public health risk, the illegal exotic animal trade is abhorrent and that has nothing to do ethnicity. China has a growing animal rights movement, in a...
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    The Chinese government turns a blind eye to the...

    The Chinese government turns a blind eye to the illegal exotic animal trade because traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) helps reinforce a nationalist identity as well as being a cultural export. There...
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    Maybe this time is different but for FWIW people...

    Maybe this time is different but for FWIW people tend to behave more cooperatively during a crisis.

    "The idea that when disaster strikes people panic and social order collapses is very popular....
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    Your messaging might be a little blasé. Florida...

    Your messaging might be a little blasé. Florida pastors are still drawing big crowds with more apocalyptic screeds, maybe try:

    There is still hope, everyone!
    Repent now, Philistines!
    “For what...
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    I just think Sweden is interesting. There's all...

    I just think Sweden is interesting. There's all these natural experiments going on and Sweden is an outlier. So it's useful to place what's going on in Sweden in context because in America a lot of...
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    I think it's going to be hard to go back and...

    I think it's going to be hard to go back and figure a lot these things out because the exponential process means each innumerate step of denial "Glad we're not China" "Those countries are faking the...
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    @iceman, take it easy old timer. This is not a...

    @iceman, take it easy old timer. This is not a dinner party.
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    Sweden is orderly in part because public and...

    Sweden is orderly in part because public and psychological reactions to acts of disorder are somewhat harsh and traumatic. Florida man behavior, at large, would be unexceptionable. Sweden is...
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    Sweden has a number of things going for it that...

    Sweden has a number of things going for it that may not apply elsewhere. Even before COVID-19 more than two thirds of Swedes worked from home at least some of the time, more than half of households...
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    ^ Followed by the second paragraph, "None of my...

    ^ Followed by the second paragraph, "None of my calculations support any idea that pandemics are good for health. The effects I calculate just represent health benefits from the air pollution changes...
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    ^ The link is for pollution in China and the...

    ^ The link is for pollution in China and the chart is for flu deaths in America but your original claim is "Across china and Italy total deaths are falling," not deaths for some causes are falling....
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    Those asshole Chinese apparatchiks and their...

    Those asshole Chinese apparatchiks and their censorship, at least we don't have to put up with that BS here in America:

    Hospitals Tell Doctors They’ll Be Fired If They Speak Out About Lack of Gear
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    Heh, the impeachment trial was a prelude showing...

    Heh, the impeachment trial was a prelude showing how President Trump would handle the epidemic: it's a media hoax, a nothingburger, a dem conspiracy.
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    I'm also dubious after seeing huckbucket's...

    I'm also dubious after seeing huckbucket's numbers but if you chart those numbers on a logarithmic scale and estimate the doubling time then it looks like the curve is flattening, but is by no means...
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    Maybe, but the SARS-CoV-2 viral entryway is the...

    Maybe, but the SARS-CoV-2 viral entryway is the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2, or ACE2 receptor. That's a universal human biological component. The virus has a spike protein that uses the ACE2...
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    There appears to be sufficient evidence to...

    There appears to be sufficient evidence to conclude the curve in New York City is flattening. The report linked below sets forth the evidence for–and against–this preliminary but potentially...
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    This first 30 minutes of the virology podcast...

    This first 30 minutes of the virology podcast linked below features Daniel Griffin, MD, a New York doctor describing the situation on the ground. He says 50% of ventilated patients have survived so...
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    The examples from other countries begs the...

    The examples from other countries begs the question of how the U.S. is determining the overall mortality impact of the epidemic.
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    Yeah, there's skepticism about deaths too because...

    Yeah, there's skepticism about deaths too because some countries have seen a substantial increase in deaths due to pneumonia for example, but not attributed to COVID-19. It's either coincidence,...
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    George-mutha-f'n-Washington used variolation at...

    George-mutha-f'n-Washington used variolation at Valley Forge to save the Continental Army from a smallpox outbreak.


    Also, sort of related is a correlation between countries with mandatory...
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    huckbucket posted a NewYorker article about the...

    huckbucket posted a NewYorker article about the history of vaccination, notably small pox. Before modern vaccination, practitioners would purposely infect a person with a small amount of a disease in...
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    Absolutely Mission Impossible Drägerwerk is a...

    Absolutely Mission Impossible

    Drägerwerk is a world leader in the production of ventilators. In an interview, company head Stefan Dräger, 57, discusses the challenges of keeping up with current...
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRU-6vaKaf4

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRU-6vaKaf4
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    While this disease will likely accelerate deaths...

    While this disease will likely accelerate deaths that might have been imminent, it's worth keeping in mind the next time you compare COVID-19 with the flu or falling down stairs that COVID-19 is new...
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    Yeah, it looks like the reproduction number (R0)...

    Yeah, it looks like the reproduction number (R0) was revised upwards a bit due to faster than expected spread, absent intervention.
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    In the unlikely event anyone is reading Spats's...

    In the unlikely event anyone is reading Spats's posts, the Ferguson was study was discussed here yesterday. The estimates aren't so much revised (or quietly walked back, lol) as they are a...
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    Not just economic collapse, the way a lot of...

    Not just economic collapse, the way a lot of projects are financed forces somewhat stringent timelines. Once stopped, makes it difficult to restart. If that's what it takes to protect workers then...
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    A good read. Uncertainty creates an alternative...

    A good read. Uncertainty creates an alternative facts problem. The bottom line:

    1. We need more data
    2. The data might show extensive lockdowns and quarantines are not worth the costs

    The...
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    Yeah, given a choice better to get sick when...

    Yeah, given a choice better to get sick when resources are available. But FWIW, early on doctors followed SOP: 1) first oxygen 2) then BiPap machine to push air 3) and finally a ventilator. Now...
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPXWt2ESxVY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPXWt2ESxVY
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    He should somehow be able to capitalize on his...

    He should somehow be able to capitalize on his antibodies. Give him a job at a hospital, for example.

    He and the article, though, missed the obvious Jordan reference: he won the flu game.
    ...
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    Good news if it's true, but it appears to be a...

    Good news if it's true, but it appears to be a case of misreporting hypothetical model scenarios as fact:

    https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity
    ...
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    During the Spanish flu the California governor...

    During the Spanish flu the California governor said it was the “patriotic duty of every American citizen” to wear a mask and San Francisco passed an ordinance requiring masks in public. The police...
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    I hope for the best but I think it's likely Japan...

    I hope for the best but I think it's likely Japan is in worse shape than the outside world realizes. If bowing and masks do end up working then we should embrace their customs and discard ours as...
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    KQ was ahead of the curve on the dilemmas we're...

    KQ was ahead of the curve on the dilemmas we're all going to face.
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    Like you, I'm in the let it ride camp but that...

    Like you, I'm in the let it ride camp but that might not be a good idea with COVID-19. FWIW, Aspirin might be safer than NSAIDs but at this point it's all uncharted territory and from what I've read...
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    I think it's a strategy. President Trump is...

    I think it's a strategy. President Trump is branding himself as the open things back up miracle cure guy not the take responsibility for the failed response guy. That's for the governors and public...
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