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  1. Replies
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    They skipped a lot of near impossible to overcome...

    They skipped a lot of near impossible to overcome steps and are going straight to market. Definitely going to work.
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    What was the angle on the Victoria/Peak slide?

    What was the angle on the Victoria/Peak slide?
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    269169

    269169
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    I can talk to them directly if it would help. ...

    I can talk to them directly if it would help. I've been fully buried waiting for death, and have also been on the other side with good and bad outcomes. It can be difficult. Not really looking to...
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    259218 The slab wrapped over the ridge, and...

    259218

    The slab wrapped over the ridge, and sucked the opposite side uphill when it broke. Imagine being dragged uphill and over the edge.
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    Challenge accepted 259013 Avalanche...

    Challenge accepted

    259013

    Avalanche forecast for the incoming system on Feb 4th, 2017:

    A very important pattern change is taking place over the Northwest Friday and Saturday. The dry weather...
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    Crystal (Alterra) is continuing to support the...

    Crystal (Alterra) is continuing to support the work. They cover the significant operating costs and also make it available to the public, which is solely at their discretion and a really nice...
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    Prelim forecasts for Crystal (and I assume...

    Prelim forecasts for Crystal (and I assume elsewhere) on the system later this week look good: http://winterscience.com/brasstacks/ Nice to see NWAC forecasting earlier this year as well, will have...
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    I missed this little bit of gold. Going to be a...

    I missed this little bit of gold. Going to be a long humbling journey on the pro track.
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    Start here: ...

    Start here:

    https://avalanche.org/avalanche-education/

    All the providers on that page will provide the intro courses necessary for leading either into the recreational or pro track. They both...
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    Some of it may come down to the IRS designation...

    Some of it may come down to the IRS designation of a hobby vs a business. They would expect a business to be profitable at some point if not now.
    If there is too much on the expense line that...
  12. Your confusion matrices look insanely accurate. ...

    Your confusion matrices look insanely accurate. The Above treeline forecast says it matches nwacs forecast 97% of the time. However today it's forecasting low and nwac is at considerable.

    I...
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    Data Engineer + Analyst in Seattle

    I'm looking for a Data engineer and an entry to mid level analyst for work in Seattle. It's a competitive market here, but you'd be working for someone who knows which days are good for working and...
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    It's a good point that the ski business started...

    It's a good point that the ski business started in the latter half of the century, the analysis is showing the deviation from the century as a whole. For most of us we have not experienced this...
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    There's some truth here. I think the easiest...

    There's some truth here. I think the easiest note is that warmer temperatures have a higher absolute humidity. In our case I think you would get around a 5% increase in water based on the increased...
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    Your're right that it doesn't all turn to shit...

    Your're right that it doesn't all turn to shit exactly at 32F. The two other main variables at play are RH and the vertical column of air the snow is falling through. The general rule of thumb is...
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    I don't see this error, but agree it's a little...

    I don't see this error, but agree it's a little odd to not use mm and C. I thought it would be easier to understand with F and inches.
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    It's hard to abstract weather from climate. It's...

    It's hard to abstract weather from climate. It's not uncommon to have 20 degree changes day to day, but overall I just took every hourly temperature and added the anomaly. Assumption is that...
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    Nothing huge in the forecast but could add up by...

    Nothing huge in the forecast but could add up by the end of the week. Get's a little warmer with wind on Wednesday. Crystal forecast:

    221882
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    Global Warming and Snowfall in the PNW

    I did some math:

    http://www.winterscience.com/lab/climate.htm

    It was much bleaker than I expected. Any thoughts on the methodology or outcome?
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    I'm almost 100 days out now. Still not able to...

    I'm almost 100 days out now. Still not able to walk without some sort of assistance but getting better, Still a ton of pain and stiffness in my neck, but also getting better. Finally moved back...
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    It is not dead, although I almost am. My back...

    It is not dead, although I almost am. My back healed well and I was strong. Unfortunately I took a bad fall a couple months ago and broke my pelvis, back, femur, scapulae, ribs, and skull. I've...
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    214866 More x-rays. And the first time being...

    214866

    More x-rays. And the first time being upright in 58 days
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    Making progress in the wheelchair, was able to do...

    Making progress in the wheelchair, was able to do an extended visit with my spinal physician via car yesterday. That was a win. Still a ton of pain during movement in my right leg (with the femur...
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    That next punch of water is not going to be skier...

    That next punch of water is not going to be skier friendly:

    http://www.winterscience.com/wxmaps/pnw/Hourly_Precip/1/
    214029

    The weekend's not looking much better.
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    It was nothing. A total fluke. I was soaring...

    It was nothing. A total fluke. I was soaring an 11m on a small dune and got pulled over the back just off the ground. Usually you just drag through the sand. Has happened a 1000 times with no...
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    Thanks for the replies. I don't have any...

    Thanks for the replies. I don't have any noticeable nerve damage at this point. I had minimal internal/bleeding and injuries. My OT said he's never seen anyone break all of the major (he actual...
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    Pelvis, Femur, Back, Scapula, Ribs, Skull

    A bit over five weeks ago I took a wrong turn and crashed my speedwing in an innocuous spot. I broke my pelvis in 6+ places, broke my femur, broke 8 vertebrate in my back, broke my scapulae, broke 3...
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    I've been flying a lot the last 5 years. Mostly...

    I've been flying a lot the last 5 years. Mostly speedflying/speedriding but doing more and more paragliding. Speedriding pow is about as good as it gets, still a real small community in the US. ...
  30. I mean the stats are not based on "selecting a...

    I mean the stats are not based on "selecting a slope at random", but they are applied that way. I was defining historical rate as incidents/# of tests, and we don't know the # of tests. For example...
  31. Is there a Bayesian problem with the statistical...

    Is there a Bayesian problem with the statistical methods in use? If you're trying to reduce the risk of a specific choice how do you do so without knowing the historical rate? All you know is the...
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    202865 FX came out 2 degrees below measured...

    202865

    FX came out 2 degrees below measured for Heather Meadows during the warm-up. Over the last week the Standard Deviation between FX and actual was 1.89 F for that location, meaning ~95% of...
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    I'm landing in Geneva on Friday, will be speed...

    I'm landing in Geneva on Friday, will be speed riding Valfrejus/Chamonix/Courmayeur if there's anyone else flying who wants to meet up. Looks like a bit of weather to start that may keep us grounded...
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    Crystal is my home mountain, hence the inclusion....

    Crystal is my home mountain, hence the inclusion. The maps solution is not scalable. I mentioned the issues previously, but long term I need to find a better option to make it more flexible.
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    Yes, an hourly rate. I switched from a scatter...

    Yes, an hourly rate. I switched from a scatter to a raised area, I thought it was a bit more intuitive. The minus is that it looks more like accumulation which it is not. The thicker the faster...
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    John_B, I added some colorbars with units. Also...

    John_B, I added some colorbars with units. Also blew it out to the volcanoes and made some rad wind and cloud visuals. For roads the x-axis is mile-markers, these are stretched out...
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    Cross Sections are live: ...

    Cross Sections are live:

    http://winterscience.com/cross/Cross_Section_of_2/

    They are going to evolve into something a bit more mobile friendly, but I wanted to get up what I currently have. I...
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    I can pull the freezing level off the raw WRF and...

    I can pull the freezing level off the raw WRF and make the simple assumption that the snow level is 1000 ft below that. Unfortunately there's nothing to learn off to go further than that. At any...
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    Mission is definitely near the bottom of water...

    Mission is definitely near the bottom of water amounts. The heaviest precipitation at the passes is all frozen, but winds are absolutely blasting from the SW, over 100mph at 7000' in the southern...
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    I don't see much hope for the passes to survive...

    I don't see much hope for the passes to survive the warm-up:

    http://winterscience.com/wxmaps/wa/Rain_vs_Snow/2/

    Avalanche hazard is going to be nuclear on Thursday. Hands down worst day of the...
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    1. The slide bar is pretty cheeseball. I will...

    1. The slide bar is pretty cheeseball. I will try to update that into something better.
    2. Colorbars are also cheeseball. Will update.
    3. This one is tough. I'm already producing over 25,000...
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    Thanks for the feedback. I made significant...

    Thanks for the feedback.

    I made significant changes to the layout that hopefully ease reading. Added cloud cover to the maps. Made a host of other improvements. I agree the fx should not go...
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    Crystal was as good as I've ever had it, and I've...

    Crystal was as good as I've ever had it, and I've had a lot of Crystal. Tomorrow should another worthy one.
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    I made some changes to the charts which should...

    I made some changes to the charts which should make them a bit easier to read, still need to redo the SWE blocks.

    Crystal Mountain stepped up and funded a significant increase in the processing...
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    It's good feedback. I have invested thousands of...

    It's good feedback. I have invested thousands of hours into the underlying data, but the UI was a single two day push to get something together. There's a number of limitations with parts of the...
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    Thanks for the feedback. I did reverse the order...

    Thanks for the feedback. I did reverse the order of the measured SWE vs the FX swe, hopefully that reduces the confusion there. I also redid the table as I thought it was hard to read.



    I...
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    It's in Django with bootstrap. The snow...

    It's in Django with bootstrap.



    The snow forecast page has got some issues. It runs off the SNOWPACK model, which is producing accurate output for the available models on each forecast page. ...
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    Per the example here's the last 72 or so hours at...

    Per the example here's the last 72 or so hours at Baker, Forecast vs what actually happened at the NWAC station. This one happens to be impossibly accurate, can't say it always is this good but it's...
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    Thanks for taking the time to give it a look. ...

    Thanks for taking the time to give it a look. This is an example of bad UI and not a bad WRF. Those predictions are for the NEXT 72 hours, and the measurements are for the PREVIOUS 72 hours.
    ...
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    Winter Science in the PNW

    I broke my back speedriding in Chamonix last spring. Prior to that event I had focused on improving weather forecasting for the avalanche and ski community, but had yet to coalesce the pieces into a...
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