Me, thinking about the 0.01% chance I keep my job, RE crashes and bitcoin does well.

321310

I feel like this is an undercovered story given the impact on price and market clearance, downstream effect on affordability, etc. Financializing residential RE is turning into quite a disaster.

Thing is, there is zero chance your kids are going to get the unique, generational tailwind that validated your approach. You got rich off a multi-decade trend of financialization & a societal shift...

So... storing ones accumulated wealth in housing is turning out to be a raging PITA fraught with pitfalls of illiquidity & leverage-induced bankruptcy risk. Who knew?

Legislation will fight market clearance by design, but the externality of that is putting off the benefits of market clearance (demand surge, strong hands enter, new credit cycle starts). Hard to say...

Luxury market will be slaughtered. Foreclosures will skyrocket across the board, so a lot depends on how banks manage REO strategy. And how politicians manage banks managing REOs.

speaking of...