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  1. Replies
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    Remember back in late April when Sweden said they...

    Remember back in late April when Sweden said they would start seeing signs of herd immunity in Stockholm by mid May? I posted on 4/28 that Stockholm county had 1,287 deaths on that date. Today (5/19)...
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    US/Canada border closed until at least June 21 ...

    US/Canada border closed until at least June 21

    https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation/canada-us-extend-border-closure-to-non-essential-travel/
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    The crater also contains the youngest and fastest...

    The crater also contains the youngest and fastest growing glacier in the US

    https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4x39gb/americas-youngest-fastest-growing-glacier-may-be-short-lived
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    On my last trip down to the visitor center I...

    On my last trip down to the visitor center I learned the eruption cut off the outlet to Spirit Lake. Rather than let the lake rise and naturally cut a new outlet, a 1.6-mile-long outlet tunnel was...
  5. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown on Tuesday said she would...

    Oregon Gov. Kate Brown on Tuesday said she would announce an executive order allowing ski resorts to reopen. The timing of the order remains unclear, however, and no additional details have been...
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    New report...

    New report from rock star epidemiologists Osterholm, Lipsitch, and others. Some key points include "the length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in...
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    59,459 current deaths in USA. If we assume 1%...

    59,459 current deaths in USA. If we assume 1% case fatality rate, times this number by 100 to get realistic infected in USA, at this moment (5.9 million). This is 1.8% of the US population. So lets...
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    Why do you think the case fatality rate, when it...

    Why do you think the case fatality rate, when it is all said and done, will be 3-5%? Even without a vaccine or prophylactic treatment available, as time goes on, doctors will get better at treatment....
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    Here's Germany's leading coronavirus expert...

    Here's Germany's leading coronavirus expert Christian Drosten on herd immunity:

    To achieve herd immunity we need 60-70% of the population to carry antibodies to the virus. The results of antibody...
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    Do you have a cite that it will take 95% to reach...

    Do you have a cite that it will take 95% to reach herd immunity? I am no expert, but from what I have read, it is anywhere from 60 to 90%. No one really knows what it is for sure, or if herd immunity...
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    I agree. That is in the NY Times article said and...

    I agree. That is in the NY Times article said and every article I have read on them recently. Their top doc says they are trying to slow just like everyone else, just more laisez faire. But they also...
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    Totally agree, at least one developed nation...

    Totally agree, at least one developed nation needs to go down this road so the rest of us can learn from them. Might as well let Swedish doctors do an experiment on the Swedish population.
    ...
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    Regarding Sweden's claims above. 26% (598,000) of...

    Regarding Sweden's claims above. 26% (598,000) of Stockholm County are infected by May 1. Today, 1,287 have died in Stockholm County (would be higher on May 1). But if we plug in today's number, that...
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    Sweden says more than 26 percent (598,000) of the...

    Sweden says more than 26 percent (598,000) of the 2.3 million inhabitants of Stockholm County will have been infected by May 1.

    I've read numerous fluff pieces of journalism repeating the above...
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    If you think your employer is not following state...

    If you think your employer is not following state or federal corona virus guidelines, file a whistler blower complaint. That process is anonymous (unless Trump and the GOP demand you be outed)
    ...
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    I've read the respirator mask that you would use...

    I've read the respirator mask that you would use for lead paint removal filter the air you breath in, but do not filter the air you exhale. So you would be protecting yourself, but not protecting...
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    Where are you getting those fatality rates from?...

    Where are you getting those fatality rates from? Trevor Bedford estimates the NY study showing an infection fatality rate between .5 to 1% (25 to 80 times that of seasonal flu).
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    Fred Hutch scientist Trevor Bedford, who is cited...

    Fred Hutch scientist Trevor Bedford, who is cited a lot for his genetic mapping of the virus, says a lack of genetic diversity suggests an emergence in Wuhan, China sometime in Nov 2019. If it was...
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    More criticism of the UW model from...

    More criticism of the UW model from epidemiologist like Harvard's Marc Lipsitch:
    ...
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    Not doubting what Mofro says but it really is...

    Not doubting what Mofro says but it really is this simple of a mistake? One that a 4th grader could have pointed out. Head Swedish epidemiologist makes a groundbreaking statement that gets picked up...
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    So like ten people have already posted about...

    So like ten people have already posted about Sweden's claim of Stockholm reaching herd immunity in a few weeks. The head Swedish epidemiologist made the claim and cited a study by the Swedish Health...
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    Looks like Sweden withdrew the report saying the...

    Looks like Sweden withdrew the report saying the ratio of confirmed to infected is 1:999
    ...
  23. Replies
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    Ya, makes no sense to me either. Here is the...

    Ya, makes no sense to me either. Here is the quote from Dr. Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist:

    “In major parts of Sweden, around Stockholm, we have reached a plateau (in new cases) and we’re...
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    Belgium has highest death rate adjusted by...

    Belgium has highest death rate adjusted by population. Population 11.4 million and 6,262 deaths.

    6,262 : 11,400,000 = 0.00054929824

    But this is only because their data includes deaths...
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    Snohomish County Sheriff watched Inslee's press...

    Snohomish County Sheriff watched Inslee's press conference yesterday and decided Inslee's plan wasn't much of a plan so he decided he would no longer be enforcing the stay at home order. And unlike...
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    Washington State may soon allow...

    Washington State may soon allow outdoor recreation, elective surgeries, and certain construction projects (all presumably before the May 4 lock down expires). 1,500 people are being assembled to do...
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    From Wiki: Curt Didier unsuccessfully ran for...

    From Wiki: Curt Didier unsuccessfully ran for office on four separate occasions over a six-year period: for United States Senate in 2010, for Washington Commissioner of Public Lands in 2012, and for...
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    From Seattle Times:...

    From Seattle Times: https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/everything-has-to-be-on-the-table-getting-around-without-the-west-seattle-bridge/

    The King County Water Taxi has rarely...
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    IHME model on when it's safe to start lifting...

    IHME model on when it's safe to start lifting restrictions in each state, from the Seattle Times.
    ...
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    Assuming the anti-body test is accurate (big if),...

    Assuming the anti-body test is accurate (big if), being immune means you cannot pass on the virus. Although how long immunity remains effective is still unknown. Once a person loses their immunity,...
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    Good news for asthma sufferers, from NY Times,...

    Good news for asthma sufferers, from NY Times, Asthma Is Absent Among Top Covid-19 Risk Factors, Early Data Shows
  32. Replies
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    So if you are 40-49 years old dude and end up...

    So if you are 40-49 years old dude and end up needing to go to the hospital you have a 56% chance of needing the ICU and a 9.4% chance of dying. Does not indicate what pre-existing conditions these...
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    A more realistic (economically and...

    A more realistic (economically and environmentally) temporary ferry solution would be to add a passenger (non-vehicle) ferry to the Fauntleroy terminal (from Fauntleroy to downtown Seattle). You...
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    I doubt that would ever get past the...

    I doubt that would ever get past the environmental review process, not to mention WA ferries receive a 30% subsidy in order to operate (although Bainbridge and Kingston routes would not need a...
  35. Replies
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    This non peer-reviewed pre-print has been...

    This non peer-reviewed pre-print has been extensively criticized by other epidemiologist. For instance, Marc Lipsitch at Harvard (one of the scientist behind the social distancing to 2022 study)...
  36. From the NY TImes today...

    From the NY TImes today, JH a favorite place for the rich to try to hide from the coronavirus.

    Some have brought their own medical equipment — even a ventilator, according to one local doctor.
    ...
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    Young people are not immune from the virus (both...

    Young people are not immune from the virus (both death and long term complications) but at some point, you would think they revolt and say why are we being fucked economically to disproportionately...
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    Central WA produces most of the renewable energy...

    Central WA produces most of the renewable energy in the state through dams and wind farms (but sells a large portion of the "green" energy to CA while WA burns coal in Montana to make up for what is...
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    Per Washington Post, first time a president’s...

    Per Washington Post, first time a president’s name appears on an IRS disbursement. Treasury officials claim that adding the name won't delay the funds but the code must be changed to include the...
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    Sioux Falls Mayor says...

    Sioux Falls Mayor says the virus spread at Smithfield is not necessarily happening at the plant itself, it’s happening when people leave the plant. He added that Smithfield workers speak more than 80...
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    What specific rights/privacy are you concerned we...

    What specific rights/privacy are you concerned we will lose and never get back?

    I am reading about all the high tech testing and tracking programs used by Asian countries (relying on cell phone...
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    Looks like stay at home orders will continue...

    Looks like stay at home orders will continue through May.

    From the NY Times: Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington...
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    From NY Times, Nikki Haley says stop blaming...

    From NY Times, Nikki Haley says stop blaming Trump and start blaming your local state governor.

    "Governors complaining about the president are, in some cases, attempting to distract from their...
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    You can still walk into weed stores in...

    You can still walk into weed stores in Washington. Might have some plexi glass up as a barrier. In Washington, medical and recreational mj are combined, so no way the government could shut that down...
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    Ya, IHME model has more dead in UK than Italy,...

    Ya, IHME model has more dead in UK than Italy, Spain, France, and Germany, combined. And not far off total deaths in US.
    ...
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    Situation doesn't look good in UK

    Situation doesn't look good in UK
  47. Replies
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    From the NY Times, A ‘Liberty’ Rebellion in Idaho...

    From the NY Times, A ‘Liberty’ Rebellion in Idaho Threatens to Undermine Coronavirus Orders

    Ammon Bundy, the man who once led an armed takeover of an Oregon wildlife refuge, said a group in the...
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    Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift...

    Lockdown Can’t Last Forever. Here’s How to Lift It. We need to hit and release the brakes on physical distancing, again and again, until we safely get to immunity. By Gabriel Leung, infectious...
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    Some of the info you are looking for can be found...

    Some of the info you are looking for can be found on this page

    www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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    Ya, the data was updated yesterday. I noticed...

    Ya, the data was updated yesterday. I noticed Washington is now past peak resource day (peak resource day was April 2). All of the West coast states appear to be doing very, very well with much lower...
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