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  1. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
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    478,257

    Thanks. Looks like a campout at the lake, but...

    Thanks. Looks like a campout at the lake, but with camouflaged armored vehicles instead of trucks and boats. And Russians trying to kill you. Fooking Putin
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    I saw a different article or video, that showed a...

    I saw a different article or video, that showed a logging truck at the park exit gate. And a cleared area in the forest somewhere with a big looking stump in foreground (though arguably it could have...
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    Aye. If that's what they are doing, carry on....

    Aye. If that's what they are doing, carry on. Little sense in leaving a weak tree, especially given its usefulness as wood products. I imagine the YNP forests are pretty far out of balance after 150...
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    I saw some pics with big stumps and trucks with...

    I saw some pics with big stumps and trucks with big logs. I thought thinning is supposed to leave the large mature trees. The big stumps were surround by a bunch of small trees - why not take those...
  5. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Perun on war economics. Guy seems pretty smart...

    Perun on war economics. Guy seems pretty smart for a gamer.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qGGwO99fQaI&ab_channel=Perun

    Basically, both countries can slug it out for several years, maybe...
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    Shot #4 a couple days ago. Soreness at the site....

    Shot #4 a couple days ago. Soreness at the site. Minimal muscle soreness. A little tiredness, maybe. Maybe nose is very slightly runny, though weather shifted to cooler and wetter at the same time.
    ...
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    Certainly, but the question asks how many cases...

    Certainly, but the question asks how many cases I'd be comfortable with. Those other respiratory viruses cause much less long-term damage. Nor am I comfortable with the current level of them. No...
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    tl:dr: 1 million infections a year I would...

    tl:dr: 1 million infections a year I would reluctantly accept. "Comfortable..." maybe 100k.

    I don't want to catch it. So...
    Consider a case rate of 1/100k/day. At this rate we get 365...
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    Sewer data shows the current case rate is nearly...

    Sewer data shows the current case rate is nearly as high as the January peak around me.

    <anecdote> And maybe higher. When omicron took over, it looked to me like the sewer data dropped by half...
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    I've been seeing a lot of online ads for USFS FF...

    I've been seeing a lot of online ads for USFS FF jobs.
  11. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Kamil Galeev on Russian economy and why the ruble...

    Kamil Galeev on Russian economy and why the ruble is doing so well. Export values up, imports down mean a favorable balance of trade and strong ruble. However, dependence on Western manufactured...
  12. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Happy to hear France is fully on the right side....

    Happy to hear France is fully on the right side. Was worried I'd have to develop a taste for freedom fries. As for he weapons, I get the impression the Caesar is more useful than any artillery system...
  13. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    The Beeb on this topic:...

    The Beeb on this topic:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61752779
    Putin doesn't sound worried. Seems to like his gas station business. A US energy security official also admits the war is...
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    Folks like gravitylover who drive all day long...

    Folks like gravitylover who drive all day long can justifiably complain a little about paying more for gas. Not doing the math, but roughly looks like 25 gallons per day. Also, if he paid $4/gallon...
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    I'm saying nothing about change. You could take...

    I'm saying nothing about change. You could take my math as an argument against change. I assumed a vehicle purchase in the last ten years. That purchaser would reasonably assume some future...
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    I used math similar to yours. You own it for ten...

    I used math similar to yours. You own it for ten years, the gas price is higher for two years. Adjusting your number for 2 years /10*$10k = $2k. If one drives a lot, or drives a beater that never...
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    Someone spends $30k on one of them magic flying...

    Someone spends $30k on one of them magic flying carpet things we drive around in these days, and plans to spend another $10k on gas and maintenance over its lifetime. Gas prices rise $2 over a couple...
  18. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Kamil Galeev on changing Russian Leadership...

    Kamil Galeev on changing Russian Leadership
    https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1534625389821272064.html

    Mainly he says the government structure needs to change. Replacing Putin just puts someone...
  19. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    I'll believe that when the appeasement talk dies....

    I'll believe that when the appeasement talk dies. And politicians with some sense of national/global security can stay in or win office.

    I see a difference between a win for Putin/Russia's...
  20. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Thanks for posting a source on the O&G revenues....

    Thanks for posting a source on the O&G revenues. I'm pretty sure my source was some twit, and I lost the the tweet when my laptop crashed, but the message resonated. I'm pretty good at supplying...
  21. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Sorry I lost track of the original tweeter/link ...

    Sorry I lost track of the original tweeter/link

    A lesser discussed topic about Putin's motivation is economic. Oil and Gas produces something like 90% of Russian corporate profits. The kleptocracy...
  22. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    (resisted urge to feed the troll) This guy...

    (resisted urge to feed the troll)

    This guy claims to be Professor of Strategic Studies and his take is Russia may be spent, or nearly so. No advances for the first day in a while. Decreasing tank...
  23. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    A quick scan of world crop production forecasts...

    A quick scan of world crop production forecasts suggests no shortage overall. Individual countries have problems feeding their populations though. I didn't attempt to figure whether problems differ...
  24. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Yeah, I'm thinking of corruption like funneling...

    Yeah, I'm thinking of corruption like funneling >20% of the money somewhere, or shipping late-model war equipment to China. Humans are somewhat corrupt, and Ukraine also. We must allow for that. And...
  25. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Yeah, I don't get what we've been waiting for. My...

    Yeah, I don't get what we've been waiting for. My guess is some of the Euro leaders want more time to bring their populations to strongly support arming Ukraine. And Biden, being an internationalist,...
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    Poll: You're projecting. I agree that criminals should...

    You're projecting. I agree that criminals should be locked up. And all the steps leading to that should be performed (except the crime)
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    Poll: I'd blame that more on the elected officials, and...

    I'd blame that more on the elected officials, and by proxy SF residents. Awhile back one of their mayors responding to a raft of cellphone thefts on MUNI said if you don't want your phone stolen,...
  28. I imagine most every human culture has this...

    I imagine most every human culture has this problem. I've long suspected the Catholics and Boy Scouts are taking the heat for publicizing and fixing a problem everyone else is hiding.
  29. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    A sensible oil and gas proposal I saw said...

    A sensible oil and gas proposal I saw said Russia's consumers should pay about what it costs to pump and deliver. That is, Russia makes about nothing on sales. The delta to market price should be...
  30. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Kissinger's probably like most old men who can't...

    Kissinger's probably like most old men who can't remember recent events. So he has no picture of today's Putin.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVq5VZ3CUR8
    Don't forget Putin's doings in Belarus
  31. Replies
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    Adding a checkmark to the "highschool prom equals...

    Adding a checkmark to the "highschool prom equals superspreader" column. Niece's classmates in a bay area county are testing positive - sister says they are dropping like flies. Photos show a large...
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    Poll: I see fewer guns and more restrictions as the...

    I see fewer guns and more restrictions as the best answer. The appropriate changes likely require amending or reinterpreting the 2nd amendment. The founders were reasonable people, and the current...
  33. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    When it comes to potential Putin concessions, we...

    When it comes to potential Putin concessions, we should start with what he deserves. He's consistently shown himself to be an irresponsible actor, invading one sovereign country after the next. If he...
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    Poll: No. One of the things that makes America great is...

    No. One of the things that makes America great is that pretty much everything is soft targets. Everything is cheaper and more efficient when you live in a secure state that is not a security state....
  35. The evidence cited in that article is rather...

    The evidence cited in that article is rather sparse. "US officials" and an opinion about the position of the flaps. I'm gonna need a named official, and I'll probably wait for the voice recorder...
  36. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Me: Question... do any of you admit to supporting...

    Me: Question... do any of you admit to supporting Putin and wanting the US to be more like his version of Russia?
    Them: Today at 1:18 PM
    i support the latest thing n stuff
  37. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Fuck Putin

    Fuck Putin
  38. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    I may be an outlier, but I think so. I haven't...

    I may be an outlier, but I think so. I haven't asked the question the way you phrased it. But in a lot of words over several conversations, yes, they do admit to supporting Putin and wanting the US...
  39. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    I think it's been creeping up on us. First, in...

    I think it's been creeping up on us. First, in the 90s, Russian corruption crept into democracies more than democracy and law and order crept into Russia, and that's continued. Many of our...
  40. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Given Russia's military performance, they'll be...

    Given Russia's military performance, they'll be burrowing more UFOs than borrowing.
  41. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    My reading says Russia without Putin would...

    My reading says Russia without Putin would probably be the same or worse. All of the likely successors are nationalist / great power / restore the empire types who read and believe the same stuff...
  42. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    I agree many people pay no attention and can't...

    I agree many people pay no attention and can't find Ukraine on a map, much less know anything of its recent history. I tend to pay some attention* to the world's stronger (or nuclear) dictators. And...
  43. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    ok then. Yesterday I rambled about Ukraine and...

    ok then. Yesterday I rambled about Ukraine and Russia sorting out Crimea and naval base...

    That says Russia already had a good agreement for Crimea basing thru 2047, and ripped it up in 2014....
  44. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    I never caught that at the time. Chechnya and...

    I never caught that at the time. Chechnya and Russian tactics generally did seem overly brutal. I'll claim my focus was distracted by what I saw as US hysteria and misguided bandwagoning for our own...
  45. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    I hope it does. It sure is a mess. I have no...

    I hope it does. It sure is a mess. I have no grand ideas for how it might end, and I haven't heard others that sound plausible/attractive and likely. The best I've heard is Russia fractures...
  46. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    If that's Ukraine's compromise for their peace,...

    If that's Ukraine's compromise for their peace, that's their right. The west should keep the sanctions in place until Russia returns to the prior conditions for our peace. There can be no rewards for...
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    Go away with your math. Emotion gets more clicks

    Go away with your math. Emotion gets more clicks
  48. Replies
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    Wow. Do they know where all the dust is from?...

    Wow. Do they know where all the dust is from? Just windier? New type of land use, or increased use? Positive feed back? (drier->less plants/cryptocrust->more dust->less snow->drier)
  49. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    Project for the New American Century - basically...

    Project for the New American Century - basically American empire building for world's benefit

    Russian elites have a similar program. There's a book they read, though I forget the title.
  50. Thread: Ukraine

    by LongShortLong
    Replies
    8,256
    Views
    478,257

    US leaders respond to voters. The American people...

    US leaders respond to voters. The American people voted strongly for the guy who lied about and started the Iraq mess. So, call it what you want, but it's a feature of our system. Now, Russians don't...
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