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  1. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
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    429,307

    https://ncov2019.live/data/usa Wikipedia...

    https://ncov2019.live/data/usa

    Wikipedia contributors have been scraping CDC and state health authorities for case and death stats too. Eg Georgia
    ...
  2. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
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    429,307

    I said that back in mid January when cases were...

    I said that back in mid January when cases were confined to Wuhan. Yet it still grows at quite the rate

    At some point in the future enough people are immune or die that the exponential growth is...
  3. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    8500 fatalities increasing average of 25%/day ie...

    8500 fatalities increasing average of 25%/day ie doubling every 3.2 days.

    135,000 in 16 days
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    Swiss you def qualify for CERB. Guides do. You...

    Swiss you def qualify for CERB. Guides do. You definitely do
  5. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
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    429,307

    Yah very often I read stuff about their...

    Yah very often I read stuff about their healthcare system which makes me surprised. Copays? Waht?

    I sometimes forget TGR is mostly American and therefore alien species
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    Yeah but nothing for the hedge funds and.dividend...

    Yeah but nothing for the hedge funds and.dividend yield investors Canada???? Booo
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    To be honest I'm not super optimistic about lifts...

    To be honest I'm not super optimistic about lifts rolling for ski season coming next year. Which would make next year's thread just myself and Maximus posting quadruple overhead blower pow pics
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    I know I'm talking to myself here but it's fun in...

    I know I'm talking to myself here but it's fun in a bizarro way to learn about mREITs

    My calculations are off because I have to factor in the bank lenders to IVR not marking to market Agency and...
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    There are now no more borrows on the China coffee...

    There are now no more borrows on the China coffee stock scam LK.

    Am deep underwater on my starter position on mREIT IVR. Am going to roll some dice on Fed bailout of poor mark-to-market CMBS...
  10. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
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    429,307

    Exponential growth continues to grow...

    Exponential growth continues to grow exponentially. Like this thread
  11. Replies
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    Region by region. But generally yes

    Region by region. But generally yes
  12. Replies
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    Fraud on revenues by COO and staff. You bet it...

    Fraud on revenues by COO and staff. You bet it goes all the way.

    LK the listed Adr is a subsidiary which has a contractual right to profits and divs from the fraudulent Chinese parentco. ...
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    CCL update NCLH and RCH will have to do a...

    CCL update

    NCLH and RCH will have to do a raise

    I'll cover CCL soon. That$8is the commons price and they reduced size of offering so not as dilutive



    The convert is 1.575B and...
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    After reading CCL's plan & prospectus to raise $...

    After reading CCL's plan & prospectus to raise $ via bond, convertible and common stock offering I went short.

    TLDR notes

    4bn in bonds pay 12% and are first security collateralized by boats
    ...
  15. Thread: Shift or Tecton

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    20
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    798

    https://www.newschoolers.com/news/read/Aggressive-...

    https://www.newschoolers.com/news/read/Aggressive-Touring-bindings-Fritschi-Tecton-Salomon-Atomic-Shift
  16. Replies
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    There's always a silver lining

    There's always a silver lining
  17. Replies
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    No Canadians in their right mind would risk their...

    No Canadians in their right mind would risk their lives going to the US for the foreseeable future
  18. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Very favourable! Pulling for WA state!

    Very favourable! Pulling for WA state!
  19. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-co...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-ems.html?

    "N.Y.C.s 911 System Is Overwhelmed. Im Terrified, a Paramedic Says."

    NYC's case density is 3,300 cases per million. ...
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    The season ended on March 17 (well we skinned up...

    The season ended on March 17 (well we skinned up the WB runs a couple of days or so after they clo but it really barely counts). Here's the last day

    Sunset and Vantage – March 17, 2020

    We...
  21. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
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    429,307

    Ha. True. Here's a breakdown by country and by...

    Ha. True. Here's a breakdown by country and by age from Oxford University fyi https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
  22. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Hard to say really 100k cases yesterday...

    Hard to say really

    100k cases yesterday approx. But recall har due to under testing who really knows the real number? That 100k doubles every 2.5 days on a 32% increase.

    10 days -...
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    It was still cold (-11@ at valley. -11@ridgetop)....

    It was still cold (-11@ at valley. -11@ridgetop). Winds had backed off so winds were light at ridgeline. However all N, NE and NW aspects now had a stout pronounced windslab (2 – 5cms pencil). With...
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    Central Duffey March 16 The way the world was...

    Central Duffey March 16

    The way the world was going we figured skiing would shut down pretty soon. Lending to this pessimism (reality?) was the recent Arctic outflow wind event which had decimated...
  25. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Apps for contact tracing The Economist |...

    Apps for contact tracing

    The Economist | Creating the coronopticon https://www.economist.com/node/21782730?frsc=dg%7Ce
  26. Replies
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    Do recall I bought IVR the day before it dropped...

    Do recall I bought IVR the day before it dropped 50%. It's regained most of what it lost. I mean i know you're joking kinda
  27. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
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    429,307

    For data junkies Very interesting...

    For data junkies

    Very interesting visualizations tracking fatalities and healthcare system utlilization and drawdown state by state.

    Kindly brought to my attention by @Molly Nixon
    ...
  28. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Cell phones have their own EIN. Most providers...

    Cell phones have their own EIN. Most providers TOS require one to agree to allow use of "anonymized , aggregated data" including geolocation. Of course all personal info is stripped away
    ...trust...
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    Fromme in North...

    Fromme in North Van322438322439322440322441322442322443
  30. Replies
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    Carnival Cruise Lines from 10 to 18 in 5 trading...

    Carnival Cruise Lines from 10 to 18 in 5 trading sessions? While i have faith in the cult of cruising and old people it's crazy not to take that off the table. My feeling is I'll be buying it back...
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    Took profits on 70% of my dumpster-dive longs. ...

    Took profits on 70% of my dumpster-dive longs. Swear I was going to buy and hold but when the full faith and credit of Uncle Sam's stimulus gives you 3 up days you take what you can
  32. Replies
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    I looked a couple of days ago. No borrows for...

    I looked a couple of days ago. No borrows for shortsellers
  33. Replies
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    The efficient market theory assumes that...

    The efficient market theory assumes that investors act rationally....

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/little-known-companys-shares-surge-035141603.html
  34. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Friends in Japan are cautiously optimistic but...

    Friends in Japan are cautiously optimistic but also wondering when the other shoe will drop ie resurgent cases. This goes for urban and rural
  35. Replies
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    More on mREITs. Missed TWO yesterday so all...

    More on mREITs. Missed TWO yesterday so all academic now

    They packaged and sold off their non agency MBS

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/two-harbors-investment-corp-announces-201200237.html

    ...
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    GiBo I have no idea whether this helps but I work...

    GiBo I have no idea whether this helps but I work with a company that does cloud-based water quality, FOGs etc. If there's any way any of their tools can help you get your job done a bit easier so...
  37. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Just to put a perhaps more optimistic spin on...

    Just to put a perhaps more optimistic spin on this Sweden is trying another method of dealing with COVID. Herd immunity by exposing younger populations while segregation of elderly...
  38. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    The Norwegians, Swiss, Canadians I know are all...

    The Norwegians, Swiss, Canadians I know are all really concerned about the US. Not flinging poo but just stepping back and looking at it clinically (well as clinically as one can given the...
  39. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    If I got this right US will go into light...

    If I got this right US will go into light mitigation for approx 2 weeks meaning some regions will be in suppression/essential services only and some regions will be in light mitigation ie...
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    At least i didn't Photoshop the teeter totter in...

    At least i didn't Photoshop the teeter totter in this time
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    Update re mREITs. In on IVR just before they...

    Update re mREITs.

    In on IVR just before they announced unlikely to meet margin calls. Looks like repo desks and other lenders marked to market their collateral and found it wanting and asked IVR...
  42. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    ncov2019.live scrapes news, the national disease...

    ncov2019.live scrapes news, the national disease centers, JHSU, WHO and updates real time. It's one of many sources which now does so
  43. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    Compared to the US, yes Canada compared to the...

    Compared to the US, yes

    Canada compared to the US, yes
  44. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    I agree they're not. What they've done is reduce...

    I agree they're not. What they've done is reduce the number of cases. That doesn't mean that cases and then fatalities won't spike again.

    But they've got processes, infrastructure and a...
  45. Thread: Chinese Rat Flu

    by LeeLau
    Replies
    11,216
    Views
    429,307

    I saw it and agreed. The Chinese , Singapore and...

    I saw it and agreed. The Chinese , Singapore and Taiwan have some commonalities. They have relatively competent governments (once the CCP got its shit together boy did they rock). These...
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    Some trails Shar worked on. Did an hour spin to...

    Some trails Shar worked on. Did an hour spin to clear head322134322135322136322137322138322139
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    I'll pass it on. I don't have the capacity for...

    I'll pass it on. I don't have the capacity for the extra corporate work so will.do that
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    Darwin zone A cold spell for mid-March brings...

    Darwin zone

    A cold spell for mid-March brings in unseasonably low temps. While sun affect is putting paid to even W and E aspects everything remotely north-facing still skis beautifully. Travel is...
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    Agreed. I've got one client who offers an expert...

    Agreed. I've got one client who offers an expert system on dealing with mental health and anxiety. They have a COVID module released for free. I used it because I'm frankly terrified for my...
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    Technology lawyer. Was quite part time. But my...

    Technology lawyer. Was quite part time. But my client's "normal" lawyers (ie corporate/general etc) are having a harder time adjusting to working remotely than expected because there's so much...
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