Is the stock market going to tank?

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03-26-2013, 12:54 PM
4matic

Cannuck bringing the Zerohedge stupid again

Inside or outside:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=BdV95fC09hE
03-26-2013, 12:57 PM
Hugh Conway

Awwww yeaaaahhhh 4matic's gone full wannabe with the Wall Street reference!

china slipping, cyprus imploding will the contagion catch? or is an even more manufactured housing bubble in the US going to turn things around? Junior Analysts get your spreadsheets in now. The real ones please, not the sanitized versions without your losses.
03-26-2013, 01:06 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Awwww yeaaaahhhh 4matic's gone full wannabe with the Wall Street reference!

Only because you missed the joke first time around? You old geezers: Benny, Hugh, Liv2ski are so predictable. Do you ever think for yourself?
03-26-2013, 01:11 PM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

Do you ever think for yourself?

now that's a funny joke.

if i'm predictable it's because shit hasn't really changed in the course of this thread. same issues, same wannabe daytraders pimping their portfolio on ski boards like losers. FUCK YEAH 4MATIC IT WAS DOW 20000!

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

I'm super bullish on equities and continue to be:

1. Warren Buffet said buy index funds.

2. The Dow Theory has turned super bullish. Richard Russell turns bullish.

"We saw something that is extremely rare [on April 20 and April 25], in fact I can't remember ever having seen this before. What I'm referring to is that on those two dates all three Dow Jones Averages closed at simultaneous historic highs. To me, a fellow steeped in Dow Theory for over half a century, this was like a clap of thunder... My take on the situation is that the stock market (and the Dow Theory) told us that an unprecedented world boom lies ahead." Russell acknowledges that what he has written will surprise many who are accustomed to his long-standing caution about the stock market. He imagines that we will want to respond by saying "But Russell, you're usually so conservative, so restrained. How can you possibly talk this way? Now you're talking about a worldwide boom. Are you smoking something we don't know about?"

Russell's response:

"I stopped smoking over 40 year ago. No, I'm simply relating to you my interpretation of what the market is saying. I believe the markets talk in their own secret language. And when the market does something that has never been done before, that serves as a 'kick in the pants' for me. It's telling me, 'Russell, wake up. Something very unusual is going on. Get up out of your chair -- and pay attention'."

3. Sentiment remains skeptical.

4. M&A activity surging.

5. China loosens investment restrictions in foreign equity.

6. The super bulls like Henry Dent and Don Hays of the Hays Advisory have been calling it right. They expect Dow 20000 by 2010 and I tend to agree at this point. Read the forecast here:

http://www.hsdent.com/download/dow20000.pdf
03-26-2013, 01:17 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

now that's a funny joke.

if i'm predictable it's because shit hasn't really changed in the course of this thread. same issues, same wannabe daytraders pimping their portfolio on ski boards like losers. FUCK YEAH 4MATIC IT WAS DOW 20000!

Dead flat out predictable. Real estate..scam. Stock market..scam. Everything a fraud. Bitter old men.

I'm not a daytrader fwiw and I'm wrong all the time. Dent is a bear now fwiw.
03-26-2013, 01:18 PM
Benny Profane

Hey, I adapted. Don't fight the Fed.
03-26-2013, 01:22 PM
4matic

I'll give you that Benny. Good shot at the SP500 record today.
03-26-2013, 01:22 PM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

Don Hays of respected institutional service Hays Advisory is a long-time superbull who has gotten over his periodic short-term hesitations, last seen earlier in the summer. See June 18 column
On the face of it, Hays is now as bullish as ever. Earliest this week, his e-service proclaimed "Welcome to the Last Half of this Bull Market." He noted, "The very spirited entrance of this bull market into the last half of its move, that will produce accelerating gains in these next 18-20 months."
For the first time that I recall, however, Hays has begun to suggest that the bull won't be around forever. It appears as throwaway lines "Nobody today is looking at March or April 2009, when our guesstimate is that this bullish stock market might be ready for a meaningful correction (i.e. cyclical bear market.)"
Meanwhile, an issue under the byline of Keith, Hays' son, succinctly summarizes the Hays Grand Strategy. Inflation, in Hays' view, is currently held down by five factors:

* "1. Demographics: An aging world implies lower interest rates and deflationary risks rather than inflation. You have to look no further than Japan as evidence.
* 2. Fed Obsessed with Inflation: Lived through previous inflation era and is obsessed with it.
* 3. Technology and the Internet: Internet alone has drastically reduced the cost of information, lowering the cost and improving the productivity of business decisions (Example: airline ticket low price search vs. 10 years ago).
* 4. Fiscal Policy Competition: U.S. pricing must compete with pricing of every free trade country & vice versa, keeping prices low.
* 5. Free Trade and Globalization (Glut of Labor): Labor makes up 65-70% of the final cost of goods and services. With a global glut of labor, workers lose their pricing power, putting another lid on inflation."

Or, in another Hays summary:
"The Technology Revolution
produces
A Massive New Flat World
which ignites
A Spread of Democracy
which unleashes
A Huge Sponge of New Consumption,
which launches
The Greatest Economic Boom in the History of the World
which results in
Huge Stock Market Potential"
I don't immediately see why this happy situation would end as early as 2009.
But, meanwhile, here's Hays' recommended asset allocation:

* Long-term growth: 100% in stocks.
* Moderate growth: 85% in stocks, 15% in bonds.
* Conservative growth: 65% in stocks, 35% in bonds
End of Story

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...774BB17054A%7D

4matic the perma-bull! Everythings going UP UP UP!

there's ways to make money anytime. if idiots can flip homes again, it's the sign of a bubble. idiotic market gibberish = bubble. that shit doesn't change ya stupid fuck who's older than me.
03-26-2013, 01:29 PM
Benny Profane

They aren't flipping. They're going to be landlords. Kind of.
03-26-2013, 04:36 PM
XXX-er

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...s-capital.html

The gov is taking action up here in syrup sucker land eh?
03-26-2013, 08:21 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

4matic the perma-bull!

Current mix: 25% equity, 50% income, 25% cash. Will continue to trim equity on rallies. I've made a serious bundle on that short sale flip you hated too.
03-26-2013, 08:24 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

They aren't flipping. They're going to be landlords. Kind of.

Probably gonna sell both the rentals and ring it up. Can't close on one till July for taxes.
03-26-2013, 08:30 PM
liv2ski

Quote:

Originally Posted by XXX-er

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/...s-capital.html

The gov is taking action up here in syrup sucker land eh?

With a 1% increase in reserve requirements in 2016???? Not really, but then the politicians can not be held accountable for doing nothing:rolleyes2
03-26-2013, 08:35 PM
LeeLau

Quote:

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Lee, your a class guy to give him the option of #2.:biggrin:

You're probably right. He really gets into spewing that tripe
03-26-2013, 08:44 PM
Cono Este

Unchartered territory. I like the vix for no matter what happens. The roll is not cheap though.
03-26-2013, 08:57 PM
4matic

End of quarter rebalancing on heavy news Thursday.
03-27-2013, 08:37 AM
Benny Profane

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03...an-safety-net/
03-27-2013, 04:09 PM
Toadman

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03...an-safety-net/

I can see it now, Euro homes getting robbed by the millions. First place they'll look is the mattress! I guess it's that or take your chances with the bankers taking your money, and no access to the ATM's, except every other Thursday from 9:30AM until 9:35AM, and on the last Monday of the month from 3:30PM 'til 3:32PM. Max withdrawl - 50 Euros... Comes with a 5 euro atm surcharge to boot. Sweet!
03-27-2013, 04:51 PM
liv2ski

Quote:

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03...an-safety-net/

I liked this comment:

digistar
March 27, 2013 at 4:26 pm

"How thoughtful. The mattress has a labelled flap that shows robbers where the safe is!

Still, it probably still beats leaving it in the bank – if you live in a country where the professionals (the banks themselves) are likely to steal it".

Wonder if I can get in my safety deposit box once the USA goes tits up???
03-27-2013, 06:27 PM
XXX-er

Quote:

Originally Posted by liv2ski

With a 1% increase in reserve requirements in 2016???? Not really, but then the politicians can not be held accountable for doing nothing:rolleyes2

at least they are acknowledging/doing something, as oposed to what the US government did
04-04-2013, 06:09 PM
4matic

The Nikkei 225 is up 10% in two days.
04-04-2013, 06:12 PM
Benny Profane

That's driving the inflationista gold bugs nuts.
04-05-2013, 08:58 AM
up an down

Quote:

Originally Posted by liv2ski

I liked this comment:

digistar
March 27, 2013 at 4:26 pm

"How thoughtful. The mattress has a labelled flap that shows robbers where the safe is!

Still, it probably still beats leaving it in the bank – if you live in a country where the professionals (the banks themselves) are likely to steal it".

Wonder if I can get in my safety deposit box once the USA goes tits up???

Has anyone here used/tried to use bitcoins? i am kicking myself for not doing so last year when i first heard about it. this current chapter of the euro crisis seems to have inflated their value, might be a dumb move today to convert some cash, but the debt crisis will probably continue to ebb and flow, and i like the fact that bitcoins seem to be unable to be confiscated by governments that don't control internet traffic. as the pols and the bankers that direct the pols in euro land continue to lead their countries to economic trash heaps, bitcoins seem to have a lot of potential upside.
04-05-2013, 09:04 AM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by up an down

Has anyone here used/tried to use bitcoins? i am kicking myself for not doing so last year when i first heard about it. this current chapter of the euro crisis seems to have inflated their value, might be a dumb move today to convert some cash, but the debt crisis will probably continue to ebb and flow, and i like the fact that bitcoins seem to be unable to be confiscated by governments that don't control internet traffic. as the pols and the bankers that direct the pols in euro land continue to lead their countries to economic trash heaps, bitcoins seem to have a lot of potential upside.

Jumping into the most fiat of any currency (bitcoin) from some other fiat currency seems frying pan into the fire, no?

For all the hype it's relatively low in volume (~2 million over 30 days) total existing market $1.5 billion today
04-05-2013, 09:05 AM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by up an down

i am kicking myself for not doing so last year when i first heard about it.

The shoulda-woulda club is full of coulda been millionaires.
04-05-2013, 09:09 AM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

For all the hype it's relatively low in volume (~2 million over 30 days) total existing market $1.5 billion today

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

The shoulda-woulda club is full of coulda been millionaires.

Yes, all of those bitcoin "millionaires". internet stockchats also full of millionaires who always pick at the right time and always have the right line
04-05-2013, 09:16 AM
up an down

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Yes, all of those bitcoin "millionaires". internet stockchats also full of millionaires who always pick at the right time and always have the right line

i overstated my hindsight frustration. i didn't dream or expect to strike it rich, but it would have been interesting to convert a few dollars to bitcoins.. if they do continue to be a mattress alternative for desperate and internet savvy euros and consolidate, then there will be plenty of opportunity in the future.
04-05-2013, 09:20 AM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

Yes, all of those bitcoin "millionaires". internet stockchats also full of millionaires who always pick at the right time and always have the right line

I bought a lot of Treasury bonds in February and March. :fmicon:

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TLT:US
04-05-2013, 09:23 AM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by up an down

i overstated my hindsight frustration. i didn't dream or expect to strike it rich, but it would have been interesting to convert a few dollars to bitcoins.. if they do continue to be a mattress alternative for desperate and internet savvy euros and consolidate, then there will be plenty of opportunity in the future.

It's capped at 20 million bitcoins so things should get more "interesting".

dunno, I like sports betting better.
04-05-2013, 09:40 AM
up an down

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

It's capped at 20 million bitcoins so things should get more "interesting".

dunno, I like sports betting better.

betting online?
the value of bitcoin or any additional future electronic currency will be decided by how many people are adversely affected by their government. i am cynical about the honesty/integrity and values of pols and the tycoons who influence them, so i think bitcoin has a good chance of a bright future.
04-05-2013, 09:54 AM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by up an down

the value of bitcoin or any additional future electronic currency will be decided by how many people are adversely affected by their government. i am cynical about the honesty/integrity and values of pols and the tycoons who influence them, so i think bitcoin has a good chance of a bright future.

If you are going to get all doomsday aren't precious metals a better choice esp with physical possession of said? Or any other portable valuable good e.g collectibles? It's history (well, and somewhat chinese kleptocrats now) but jewelry and paintings were very valuable in past governmental collapses (WW1, Russia, WW2, China, Vietnam, etc) because they could be easily transferred out of the country. Much more useful than some bits.

I'm much more cynical about unregulated markets that have been repeatedly hacked with no consequences.
04-05-2013, 10:13 AM
up an down

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

If you are going to get all doomsday aren't precious metals a better choice esp with physical possession of said?

I'm much more cynical about unregulated markets that have been repeatedly hacked with no consequences.

not doomsday, just expecting another big drop ala 2008/2009, don't know when. but what drops first has to have risen, so trying to keep riding the bandwagon, i. e. keep stop loss orders in effect and raise them if bubble continues to inflate, and then jump off temporarily when orders are triggered. then probably another cycle up, and hope to jump back on.

physical possession limits your speed of reaction to events, and their are storage, possible theft, shipping, buy/sell spread hassles. no room for bullion in my micro house :wink:

i am probably at least as cynical as you re your second sentence, but we are forced to live here and now, so i try to keep financially paddling on the shit creek of life.
04-05-2013, 10:18 AM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by up an down

keep stop loss orders in effect

You can place contingency orders with Bitcoin?
04-05-2013, 10:19 AM
up an down

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

You can place contingency orders with Bitcoin?

don't know, if i ever own any i may find out.
04-10-2013, 02:44 PM
Hugh Conway

Quote:

Originally Posted by up an down

don't know, if i ever own any i may find out.

nows the time:
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/widget/chart/

bit of a wild ride there....
04-10-2013, 03:23 PM
iceman

I'm here to announce the release of Titcoins to the market. 20 million only will be issued. Please PM icemang for sales.
04-14-2013, 09:23 PM
4matic

Gold down $200 in a week. Silver down $4. 1980 all over again.
04-14-2013, 10:10 PM
LeeLau

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hugh Conway

nows the time:
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/widget/chart/

bit of a wild ride there....

Hanging wasabi 4matic eatshit doji there with a fibopastadente reversal. STRONG BUY WITH SHORT TERM SELL WITH TIGHT STOPS
04-14-2013, 10:20 PM
4matic

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeeLau

Hanging wasabi 4matic eatshit doji there with a fibopastadente reversal. STRONG BUY WITH SHORT TERM SELL WITH TIGHT STOPS

I'm not smart enough for fibopastadente. But, if $1400 doesn't hold and oil keeps falling, the TSX is gonna get it's commodity based ass kicked.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...414_JGB305.jpg
04-15-2013, 09:56 AM
liv2ski

Quote:

Originally Posted by 4matic

Gold down $200 in a week. Silver down $4. 1980 all over again.

Just makes me wonder when are treasuries going to 18% and the S&P to 108? As really, the way we are going, I can see both happening at some point.

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