I moved to underweight equity today. First time in a long while (five years).
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I moved to underweight equity today. First time in a long while (five years).
All in GNI for the dividend yield.
Damn HC you are evil
I'm pretty heavily into VFIFX
...Which is not nearly as exciting as what you all are into.
Not really. I swapped out of a 2040 to Pimco Total Return. Pretty boring; I'm a singles hitter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
That's quite the yield. What's the exit strategy?Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Conway
edit: "sell it", I suppose.
Wait until April 6, 2015 when it goes "poof". don't the fuck ask me, it's one of those stocks that makes absolutely no fucking sense - other than stupid people buying for the % yield, not actual yield, or suckers getting conned, and no way I'd touch it.Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
http://seekingalpha.com/article/9110...ce=marketwatch..Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh Conway
wtf? what happened to your target fund strategy?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
and what did you move the equity $ to?
anyone jumping on the E U country bond bandwagon?
And it closed at $74.25 today (compared to $75 for that article in 10/12) with a $5.25 payout tomorrow for shareholders of record as of 12/31/12..... like I said, no fucking senseQuote:
Originally Posted by up an down
I need a new Hugh Conway Pro Model Sarcasmometer, I thought you were serious and I was trying to figure it out
If my math is right, a short could net a decent gain.
"I took another look at it and I changed my mind!" Gordon GekkoQuote:
Originally Posted by up an down
A target date strategy is still my goal. First trade in five months..
I didn't like the intermarket reaction after the fed announcement today and decided to make a change. Also, bonds reached initial resistance and PTTRX turned negative on the year yielding 4.11%. PTTRX has never had a down year. I'm looking at this as shortish term trade; weeks to months.
But you have to pay the dividend and interest.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazderati
'99 and '94 were down years.....http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pm?s=pttrxQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Eight dividend payments left. Assuming $4 for those eight payments results in $32 in total remaining dividends. If the cost to short is 21.5% of the roughly $75 share price, that's $32.25. So, while the dividends would be knocked out by the cost to short, the final distribution would still be $9 per share.
Edit to say this is in ten minutes of reading. There is bound to be hole I haven't considered.
Thanks, I didn't look that close. I know the fund though and they have a hedged strategy. I moved 8% from equity to blended income.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Updated current mix: 15% cash, 55% income, 30% equity. Getting busy..
what's your take re todays fed minutes reaction?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Orderly. No mixed messages. Selloff on fed news has been the pattern lately while Gold has been telegraphing the expectation for days. Bonds had little to no reaction so I'm not sure it's more than a one day event. No action taken. I would sell a little more equity towards cash if we rally tomorrow and Friday. Gold found some support at $1560 where I expected. If that doesn't hold then $1400 in a hurry. Bonds have been sideways for a while with 2% resistance now support and I don't expect much more action in rates until after the sequestration unless there is a major equity selloff. I would commit some cash to equity near the gap at 1420-1450.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Edit: Feature today was the dollar index back above 81. That's big.
I don't get it. If rates went up, the exodus from bonds, which, btw, is at an almost fever pitch at the moment, will just turn into a stampede. Where will that money go? Into equities, right? Where else? Cash? Doubtful. So, why a market tank? Irrational, Captain.
Thoughts on March 1st sequester assuming they don't fix it in the next week?
"Mission Accomplished" - With CNBC now lost for countdown-able targets (though 20,000 is so close), we leave it to none other than Jim Cramer, quoting Stanley Druckenmiller, to sum up where we stand (oh and the following list of remarkable then-and-now macro, micro, and market variables), namely that "we all know it's going to end badly, but in the meantime we can make some money" - ZH translation: "just make sure to sell ahead of everyone else", just like everyone sold ahead of everyone else on October 11th 2007, the last time stocks were here...
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
Size of Fed's Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 103.0%
US Deficit (LTM): Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
Total US Debt Oustanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
Labor Force Particpation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+
VIX: Then 17.5%; Now 14%
10 Year Treasury Yield: Then 4.64%; Now 1.89%
USDJPY: Then 117; Now 93
EURUSD: Then 1.4145; Now 1.3050
Gold: Then $748; Now $1583
NYSE Average LTM Volume (per day): Then 1.3 billion shares; Now 545 million shares
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...e-dow-was-here
Please, lord, just get me up to 10% for the year. I'm almost there. I promise to go all safe and cuddly and cash for the rest of the year. 10%, that's all. I promise.
Zerohedge conveniently forgets the most important element of stock prices. Earnings:Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
Forecast forward GAAP for 2013 $1110
For Comparison here are the DJIA earnings in prior years:
2012 Actual GAAP Earnings $877 15.4 6.49%
2011 Actual GAAP Earnings $724 17.9 5.59%
2010 Actual GAAP Earnings $831 13.9 7.18%
2009 Actual GAAP Earnings $624 16.7 5.99%
2008 Actual GAAP Earnings $661 13.3 7.52%
2007 Actual GAAP Earnings $831 16.0 6.25
2006 Actual GAAP Earnings $720 17.3 5.78%
2005 Actual GAAP Earnings $476 22.5 4.44%
2004 Actual GAAP Earnings $592 18.2 5.49%
My only complaint is I'm underweight equity right here..
100% hedge with dividends and your are there..Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Fwiw, I got my question asked to Warren Buffett on CNBC yesterday. Called my name and everything. Booyah!
Oh, c'mon, this isn't earnings. Well, a little. It's the Fed. Zero rates. Chasing yield.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
He's losing his mind. He said last week that newspapers are a good investment. Newspapers.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
If you think of them as content providers instead of guys that print shit on paper it might not be so crazy. did you see the nytimes.com article on the Stevens Pass avalanche? Powerful.
Iceman doesn't do sarcasm apparentlyQuote:
Originally Posted by iceman
Sort of on the line of my question. And, he never said they were a good investment. He said they were profitable and important to the communities they operate in. Berkshire's entire investment in newspapers is $550m. That's walking around money for BRK. And, he said a mortgage is a good investment at todays rates so that confirms he's crazy by your thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Quote:
Originally Posted by iceman
Sure, the NYT will survive, the WSJ will survive, (despite Murdoch), but, small town or even larger market papers? No fucking way. The stink of death has been about them for years. Thanks, Craigslist.
Benny is one of the few people he knows who actually sits down and spreads a paper out every day. I'm old. Nobody under 45 touches newsprint anymore, and, even Benny is seriously inches away from buying an IPad to get the NYT in the 21st century way, because that fucker just can't seem to wake up in time and get me my goddamn paper on time. And stop throwing it into my BUSHES!
Berkshire is the name of the original textiles company Buffett bought. When he bought it he knew it was obsolete and destined to fail. The cash flow from that investment got him into the insurance business and the rest is legend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
he may not get sarcasm but he has a damn good memory, that guroo.Quote:
Originally Posted by guroo270
Cash flow? What cash flow?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Listen, sometimes you just have to smile at the old nerd. Overall, he has kicked ass, although you're pretty much treading water with him over a decade.
What ever you say brother.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
"There is ample debate going on in the market right now about the long-term effects of the Fed’s seemingly never-ending QE. The well-respected Stanley Druckenmiller was on CNBC this morning defending his recent commentary that the mal investment currently being instigated by the Fed can only end poorly. The counter-point was provided by former Fed governor Kevin Warsh who in his best status quo pleasing way essentially said Bernanke is in charge and all is well.
Perhaps it is, perhaps it isn’t. Personally, in the debate between a Fed governor academic and a man who successfully managed billions of dollars for decades, I’ll put my money behind Mr. Druckenmiller any day of the week and twice on Sundays!
But I’m not smart enough to know what will be the result of the Fed’s latest monetary experiments. Perhaps all will be well. Perhaps the magical money multiplier really works and is higher than anyone thinks? Perhaps the wealth effect is just about to kick in. Perhaps inflation really is low and muted, as Bernanke keeps repeating. Perhaps housing is recovering despite a continuing decline in real wages. Who knows? I don’t.
But one thing I do know is that the Fed’s hands are all over markets today. Consider for a moment the current QE program.
QE aka Money for Nothing
In March, there are exactly 20 business days. Also in March, the Fed will commit to purchase via their Permanent Open Market Operations (POMO) approximately $85bn in securities from the TBTF primary dealers. The $85bn in cash (not real cash but actually 1s and 0s in an electronic account) didn’t exist on the world’s ledger in February. However, yesterday at the Fed some functionary sat down at a computer, went into one of the Fed’s POMO accounts and entered the numbers 85, followed by nine 0s. Suddenly, the world had an additional $85bn. It doesn’t exist and then POOF! 11 key strokes later and it exists.
Over the course of the next 20 business days in March, the Fed will take this newly “minted” money and buy things with it. This new cash now enters the system and starts chasing other assets almost immediately – otherwise it sits in cash earning a negative return, something Bernanke is very actively discouraging.
The net effect of all this is that on average, every business day in March will see the Fed effectively seed a new $4.25bn AUM investment firm whose sole goal is to buy, not sell, securities. Think about that, out of thin air, a new $4.25bn competitor is starting up each and every business day in March, courtesy of the good folks in the Marriner Eccles building in DC.
Some of you have worked in asset management your entire careers. You know how hard it is raise assets. You know how long it takes and how important it is that your investors know that you can both buy AND sell assets effectively in order to earn their business. You know how hard you must work to study your markets, sectors and companies to be able to understand the fundamental drivers.
It must be hard to sit by and watch while the Fed creates a new $4.25bn competitor every business day where the sole goal of that money is to buy simply because a Princeton academic thinks it should. The Princeton academic thinks stocks should be high, so they are. The Princeton academic thinks bond yields should be low, so they are. Period. Of course this makes a mockery of those of you who actually try to understand fundamental value, but hey, the Princeton academic gets what the Princeton academic wants. The devil take the hindmost.
Again, I gave up long ago trying to predict how the massive manipulation currently being conducted by the world’s central banks will end. However, I do know that what the Fed is doing now – essentially creating a $4.25bn asset manager every business day in March 2013 – is unsustainable and certainly unfair to those of us who actually work for a living.
And what is unsustainable and unfair in the long-run does not last".
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-0...ho-work-living
Ridiculous returns this year. One of my healthcare funds was up 22% this year. Hell, my government managed 401k was up 11% for the year.Quote:
Originally Posted by Benny Profane
Seriously trying to figure out if this is the time to cash out and get back in later. I'm not good at market timing though.
And in the long run, we're all dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski
This inflationista mongering is getting old. Somebody's pissed off about all of that worthless gold they own.
Typical straw man argument. Use a well known name and then change the topic to fit the argument. So Zerohedge.. Price is truth. Druckenmiller reminds me of the late Martin Zweig. "I'm worried Lou, but I'm long."Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski