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Missed this question.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I've not participated in PE deals. I've put money into private deals and PIPEs (private investments in public entities). Whenever I've done so I've written the money invested down to zero in my mind. I've also invested in the people. Not the story behind the investment or the investment docs. Completely agree as to other comments about illiquidity and risk-concentration.
I had a random thought - can rising energy prices act in the same way as rising interest rates? Increasing the cost of money and the cost of energy can both act as brakes, right? How does that play into inflation? Would appreciate any links to articles discussing the topic.
I think this speaks to that? https://www.reuters.com/business/inf...th-2022-03-22/Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
Thanks A, but I got the dread "You have reached your article limit". Could you post the content please?Quote:
Originally Posted by Summit
"JPMorgan survey shows a record high 86% of its clients planned to raise equity exposure. It is unclear if those plans will have come unstuck after the latest spurt in oil and commodity, and galloping inflation expectations.Quote:
Originally Posted by shera
The bank itself is warning central banks face a stark choice --to "live with energy-driven inflation or kill off economic growth".
The rise in five-year Treasury "breakevens" to 3.5% is alarming, coming as it does on the heels of the Federal Reserve's interest rate liftoff and money markets pricing nearly 200 basis points of increases this year alone .
So breakevens, essentially bond markets' view of where inflation may be in five years time, have responded to policy tightening signals by moving even higher . While five-year inflation swaps, possibly a more reliable gauge, are at 2.3%, that's still above the Fed's target.
Fed boss Jerome Powell came out swinging on Monday, with a pledge of 50 bps moves if needed. Money markets also now see a roughly 3% Fed funds rate by Sept. 2023, compared to a 2.1% pricing at the start of March .
In short, chances are the Fed -- and other central banks -- will act aggressively to stamp out inflation which they now see as racing away from them.
Emerging market central banks know that feeling of losing control of inflation -- Hungary should on Tuesday raise rates by 100 bps, while Brazil has raised rates by almost 10 percentage points this cycle and is still signalling more.
So Wall Street futures are flat after Monday's slide while Europe is lower. Brent crude is almost at $120 a barrel. And listen out for raft of Fed and ECB speakers later in the day."
I finally broke down and registered a throwaway email account
Covered BYND to take profit, For skibird - covered RIVN also for a loss as I feel the market dead cat bounce is on and I fear the cult-status.
For Bob - leaving GGPI alone but am hoping to sell 15C calls on it on a monthly basis. It intermittently gets a pump and I don't want to sell calls any lower and accidentally get assigned. I'm long the stock and not warrants fwiw.
For rod - I had March 18 RSX calls and puts sold and thought they would get assigned. Somehow my 6P got assigned and I ended up buying shares at $ 6 which surprised me as RSX is halted. I suppose the OCC rules permit settlement and my counterparty manually exercised their put. Learned something new there.
Started selling RIOT covered calls again. Got assigned HIVE via sold covered calls so lost my underlying stock which is fine as I felt my exposure to crypto miners was too high.
Am trying to buy some SHOP but would ideally like lower prices.
My rsx short is jan 23 and both , calls and puts, have made a lot of money, on paper. I have them too offset Gazprom nilsy and lukoy, which are untradable.
Fuck if i know what will happen, but when Russian stocks trade again, I'm a buyer.
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Sell when you can not when you have too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
There are people in here who were posting their sales during the Covid crash. That’s not a good time to sell. Doctors and dentists slamming their lockers shut at the club. Obviously at 70 they own too much. Nothing is free.
But that’s obvious. People who bought in 2001 waited a long time to break even. The sequence of returns after retirement matter, many people bled to death and then finally panicked in 2008.
It happens, and it will happen again. If you are over 55, and have ridden this up, or are not in it for the long haul, then yes, sell some.
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Trying to scale into ENB Enbridge on the Tse. NatGas play. 9% yield. 1% per month via covered calls.
^ I was going to ask what some of the best gas plays would be this week. I don't have much left to throw at it but every little bit, right?
Enbridge is more pipeline than a nat gas play. Range Recources, Antero, EQT are more pure play gas. I bought rrc at $18ish years ago, rode it down to like $3 now waiting to bail. Not sure what I’m waiting on actually.
Very true. I'm targeting them because they're a cash flow stream with NatGas exposure. With infrastructure they're also a basic oligopoly and i like that. If I wanted pure plays I'd even consider former stranded assets like ChesapeakeQuote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
I guess I kinda used the wrong term, I wasn't thinking pure gas plays but rather a picks and shovels option. Pipelines, LNG terminals etc. The stuff needed to get the gas to port so it can be exported since that looks to me like it's going to be critical to get the gas to Europe as they shut off the Russian supply lines.
That's commonly called "infrastructure" fyi. Enbridge is a classic infrastructure play.Quote:
Originally Posted by gravitylover
Total Energies which operates in EU and has some Russia stranded assets also has NatGas fields and infrastructure. I started a small position in them too https://totalenergies.com/news/natur...otals-strategy
The pipelines are pretty easy investment to figure- can look at how they respond to changes in commodity price (if much at all), their yields, and the cash they earn to justify that yield. The differentiator for me (for Williams Cos and Kinder Morgan) was their growth profile in areas like the northeast US.Quote:
Originally Posted by gravitylover
Cheniere is the largest LNG player and may be what you’re looking for. Total Energies (formerly known as…Total…) is growing their LNG footprint but is still a large diversified oil company like RDS or Exxon (who also have significant NG/LNG assets).
Lee, if you're looking into ENB take a look at EPD. ENB is only yielding 5.8%, EPD is yielding 7.3%. The Duncan's have owned EPD since inception and the family owns a large portion of the outstanding stock, they've been good stewards and look out for the company well. EPD acquired Navitas Midstream last month to gain more exposure in the Permian basin. They print money and cover the distributions easily, they've also been aggressively buying back shares on dips.
The only "downfall" is they issue a K-1. My wife does our taxes and we have to fill out a K-1 for our business already so it's no big deal for us.
Thx Bob . EPD looks attractive too from the perspective of dividends and liquid enough options for covered calls
Brock - also agreed (getting to be a habit). Am looking at Total as a complement to XOM in the port of legacy oil/gas assets but with a bit of exposure to Euro rotation away from Russia and less so for it's NatGas holdings
Gravity, if you’re looking at gas plays to take advantage of the Russia situation I think you may be late to the boat. If you look at pretty much any gas play company they’re up markedly since the start of the Ukraine war.
If you think this may go on for a while or spark more LNG shipping you may want to look at FLNG. They have a fleet of 13 LNG tanker ships, you can find out where they are all at via vesselfinder.com. Their ships are all newish builds with four of them using the newest propulsion technologies. They recently raised their dividend so even though the share price has risen they still yield handsomely…
When I started this whole investing in the stock market thing it was April of 2020, I bought covid battered stuff the first year and did pretty well. The next year I focused on high yields as the bargains were harder to find. This led me to midstreams and reits, both offer high yields and rather stable share prices. I’ve done pretty well with midstreams, taking advantage of dividend reinvestments. I’ve worked my way up to 758 shares of EPD, this DRIP’s me almost 14 shares per quarter. I also own 100+ shares of ET, MPLX, MMP, and DCP. All of these fit into my 10 year plan to have a dividend/distribution related income for retirement. You hear a lot of chatter about how midstream companies will have trouble building more infrastructure in modern political environments, I’ve always figured that makes the ones already in the ground that much more valuable. (Same as reits, to a point.)
This year I’ve pivoted as the market has changed, growth stocks are now the battered stocks as bond yields rise. I’m not quite as bullish on CMPS as I once was, but not selling my 200 shares. I’ve been selling puts on ACCD and SOFI, hoping to ease in on low prices and not caring if I don’t while keeping the premium. I’ve been buying AAPL on any dips and now have a huge position of 17 shares, heh.
Whatever you decide to invest in I’m wholeheartedly into the camp of researching it well. Today’s internet makes it pretty easy to not only see the balance sheet of companies, (Admittedly not what I can decipher, rely on trusted others.) but you can also use the internet to make sure they are telling the truth about new constructions or acquisitions. I started buying EPD in late 2020, I watched them on Google maps working on new facilities. I’ve also held off on buying into companies because I couldn’t verify their claims.
Or, just buy into SPY, or NDAQ. Heh.
I lol every post, but the company is beating the index over the last year, so jokes on who?
@BobMc I had just landed on FLNG as a good one last night. Thanks. I need to completely rebuild after getting beat up the last few years so stuff that pays back regularly is my next direction since my little bits of growth and tech is starting to come around and make me a few $
I woke from an afternoon nap andQuote:
Originally Posted by 406
Attachment 411375
Bought GGPI warrants last Thursday, good timing on that. I have 10 shares of the underlying and bought 100 warrants. They announced a deal with Hertz today to provide 66k vehicles over the next 5 years. Momentum is becoming more positive, feeling better about them, should’ve bought a few hundred. Like I’d wondered earlier, it seems a low capital in on the stock.
I know that 66k ain’t shit, but I like how they’re going about this.
I hope you do well off them as well, Lee.
Speaking of k-1 hassle, is there an easy way to see who all should be sending/mailing them to me? Looking at my td ameritrade tax info packet, I'm not seeing anything obvious. Do they all have "partnership" in name?
Does look like the schedule E royalty gets imported to turbo tax, so that is nice. And REITs don't need anything extra.
The k1s are no big deal. It takes about 10 minutes to enter one.
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Yes. Here it comes again.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yossarian
Lower stock prices is one of the best ways to curb demand these days. Fed also needs to get rates up as much as they can quickly to have dry powder.
5yn is at 2.75% tonight. Fed just might accelerate balance sheet roll off in attempt to steepen the curve.
I’ve been holding a bit of cash using it to sell and then buy back puts. Bought back my SOFI June 17, $7.50 put today for $39, sold it for $101 on 3/14. It surged a bit this morning and then fell on the student loan moratorium afterwards, I got out at the top. I’m hoping for a bit more of a fall on that news and I’ll probably sell another ootm put. I love this stock as they announce a lot of news and there is a lot of financial media coverage, bulls and bears each vociferously screaming their knowledge. I like them long term and so I’m not afraid to be assigned at whatever price the options allow me to wager.
All that said, the reason I haven’t put all my cash in is I’ve been liking the risk of puts to keep myself liquid for a correction. I have a large portion of my money in what I hope is inflation hedged dividend positions. I’m currently liking the idea of keeping some cash to move in on depressed growth stocks if that crash happens.
I’ve been doing pretty well doing the opposite of what the experts say you should do. I think I’ll keep it up.
I want to reiterate to everyone casually reading this thread, everyone should invest, put $20/week into a retirement fund and you’ll not be like me. Make a plan to be the fuck out of this rat race, it isn’t hard if you’re young, that shit will compound, be a compounder.
20yr Bond hit 2.95% on Friday
https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US20Y
Does the fed want to steepen the curve?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Curb inflation, yeah I think they do. Steepen the yield curve? Where is that in the mandate.
:party::jam::ski::dork::chug::vax::wookie:Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
True, was thinking more the perception of flat curve as a recession indicator hurting sentiment and affecting banking mechanisms.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
I started accumulating large allocation to income today. PDI and FMSDX. I missed JEPI last time down so will accumulate that and more of the others going ahead. Also on my watch list: BOND, NUSI, QYLD, CLM.
I missed the FLNG deal this morning, put the order in too late
Sold the ATT spin-off stock too. WBD. Not my style.
A Drip/compound interest question ?
So I think i know the answer to this question but here goes. Is a DRIP program in stock basically the same as a compound interest ?
Say i have a stock that pays a 4% dividend and I sign up for a dividend reinvestment program. And lets say for arguments sake that the stock stays at the same value for 10 years. I buy 10k worth of said stock. It pays me 4% every year but that 4% gets put back into stock purchase. Is that the same a a compound interest investment if i were to buy an investment instrument at 4% compounded ?
No, because a dividend is paid out of equity and is marked down the amount of the dividend on pay date. If the stock doesn’t recover the payout with a subsequent gain (like your example) you haven’t made any money so it hasn’t compounded. It’s similar but different.Quote:
Originally Posted by bad dancer
An interest bearing security typically has a maturity date where you get all your initial money back so you can “compound” interest. But, you still need a vehicle to compound the proceeds with.
CletusQuote:
Originally Posted by Yossarian
That ain’t likely
I doubt that's happening but if it does, I'm gonna lever up.
I bought SOFI near IPO at about $24. Have since increased my position by 14X.
My cost per share is $12 at this point. Gonna HOLD but feel a little discomfort at this point.
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I own 200 shares at $11.86, I have a $7.50, Oct 21 put sold at $1.39. I’m thinking of selling another one at the current $1.73. They report earnings on May 10th, looking at calls and puts prices it seems the money thinks good news comes forth. May 13 calls and puts are selling at non linear higher prices than previous offerings.Quote:
Originally Posted by VTeton