Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by californiagrown

Anecdotal: My uncle has been voluntarily out of work for 20+ years now. He is probably mildy autistic but held down decent jobs in silicon valley all through his 20s into 30s, but then just never worked again (not because he can afford it). His daughter (my cousin) was a really normal girl growing up, if a little bit shy, went to a good state school in CA and graduated in 3 years with a degree in CompSci. She hasnt even applied for a job, any job, in the nearly 1 year since her graduation.

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These people aren't counted in the unemployment rate because they aren't in the labor force. They are part of the group not participating in the labor force participation rate metric.

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm
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"Who is not in the labor force?

As mentioned previously, the labor force is made up of the employed and the unemployed. The remainder—those who have no job and are not looking for one—are counted as not in the labor force. Many who are not in the labor force are going to school or are retired. Family responsibilities keep others out of the labor force. Since the mid-1990s, typically fewer than 1 in 10 people not in the labor force reported that they want a job.



Who is counted as unemployed?

People are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work"

Labor force participation rate chart: https://www.bls.gov/charts/employmen...ation-rate.htm

It would appear that the stock market has not tanked.

My prediction- Federal reserve and federal government put is going to remain in place so long as baby boomers need to live off their investments. They won't let the market fall significantly, even if it means choosing inflation over recession/ reset.

Both parties are going to run deficits to keep things going and the fed is ready and waiting with more QE if we have any noticeable blip,

When one company’s earnings release triggers a melt up across the whole market, something is fundamentally fucked up. I don’t even own NVDA but my play money portfolio is still up about 3.5% today.

Random part of JPM analyst commentary basically said “if NVDA has a big beat, there may be a negative outlook, as it means supply and demand are back in alignment, which means there could actually be an inventory glut later in year.”

Im not ballsy enough to pull out money yet, but damn it seems like this is balanced on a knife edge.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

It would appear that the stock market has not tanked.

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NakedShorts disappoints me greatly.

But maybe he'll be right next week.

:D

My dad was telling me to buy NVDA three years ago. He was in his late 80s. Smartest guy I ever knew when it came to so many things.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

My dad was telling me to buy NVDA three years ago. He was in his late 80s. Smartest guy I ever knew when it came to so many things.

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Definitely tell us next time he gives you a stock tip. What is he telling you to buy now?

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Definitely tell us next time he gives you a stock tip. What is he telling you to buy now?

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Well, nothing. He died last summer at age 91, RIP. Once his estate is settled, 1/4 of the NVDA he bought will come my way, which is why I was thinking about this, because I was looking at his assets. The cost basis on some of the NVDA he bought is like $39 a share, which means it had to be five or six years ago. The last few years he was a big believer in AI. He was in on the Google IPO in the early 2000s (he must have had a good financial advisor at the time because I'm sure my dad didn't have a clue what Google even was back then) and owned a lot of Google by the time he died, through splits and continued investment...never sold a single share. He told me once if you had to sell stock that was a failure of planning. Really weird mentality to me. As for what I do with those AI stocks in his estate, I'm not sure. I wonder if AI is kind of over-hyped, at least in the short-term. I could see NVDA coming back down to Earth very soon. Google so far doesn't seem so over-valued, I think it will inch up to $200 a share eventually. But I don't know shit about shit. I guess I'll have to enlist the help of some sort of financial advisor for the first time in my life. I've never had enough money to justify having one. Or I could just leave his investments as is and see what happens. But like I said he ended up way out of balance with a lot of Google, so that's kind of worrisome from a conventional investing perspective.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

<snip> He told me once if you had to sell stock that was a failure of planning. Really weird mentality to me.

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Weird to me as well. Investing is simply a means to an end. The "end" being skiing, eating, and generally fucking off. :D

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Originally Posted by yeahman

The cost basis on some of the NVDA he bought is like $39 a share

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Holy shit.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Well, nothing. He died last summer at age 91, RIP. Once his estate is settled, 1/4 of the NVDA he bought will come my way, which is why I was thinking about this, because I was looking at his assets. The cost basis on some of the NVDA he bought is like $39 a share, which means it had to be five or six years ago. The last few years he was a big believer in AI. He was in on the Google IPO in the early 2000s (he must have had a good financial advisor at the time because I'm sure my dad didn't have a clue what Google even was back then) and owned a lot of Google by the time he died, through splits and continued investment...never sold a single share. He told me once if you had to sell stock that was a failure of planning. Really weird mentality to me. As for what I do with those AI stocks in his estate, I'm not sure. I wonder if AI is kind of over-hyped, at least in the short-term. I could see NVDA coming back down to Earth very soon. Google so far doesn't seem so over-valued, I think it will inch up to $200 a share eventually. But I don't know shit about shit. I guess I'll have to enlist the help of some sort of financial advisor for the first time in my life. I've never had enough money to justify having one. Or I could just leave his investments as is and see what happens. But like I said he ended up way out of balance with a lot of Google, so that's kind of worrisome from a conventional investing perspective.

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Some of the best-informed tech folks I know think the opposite about Google fwiw. They think that Google is being left behind in a lot of ways and will be eclipsed by AI firms. Google the next Yahoo?

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Originally Posted by jackattack

Some of the best-informed tech folks I know think the opposite about Google fwiw. They think that Google is being left behind in a lot of ways and will be eclipsed by AI firms. Google the next Yahoo?

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I definitely have my concerns, partly due to the fact that I've been financially tied to Google for more than a decade earning ad revenue from them, and I have issues with some things they've done. But it's really tough to bet against a stock that has been so successful. Sometimes insiders within an industry have a skewed, maybe jaded perspective. They know too much, in a way, but it doesn't necessarily translate to results on Wall Street. But yeah, I'm sure the smart play at this point is to sell a good chunk of it and diversify. That seems to be what my siblings' financial advisors are telling them to do.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

He told me once if you had to sell stock that was a failure of planning.

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He sounds like an excellent guy but I wouldn't agree with the above.
When one buys a stock they should have a timeline and sell price planned out.
Companies change and I also remind friends interested in investing to remember that they haven't "made" any money unless you actually take that profit.

Maybe yeaman’s dad was copying Warren Buffet, who said something like “our favorite holding period is forever”.

But most people aren’t in the same position as Warren Buffet.

tru dat

I've had GOOG since IPO and sold some as it became too big a chunk of the portfolio. They've got a ton of talent. I don't buy the thesis that they'll miss out on AI.

They fit the Buffett mantra of owning either the market leader or the hungry #2

I've had GOOG since IPO and sold some as it became too big a chunk of the portfolio. They've got a ton of talent. I don't buy the thesis that they'll miss out on AI.

They fit the Buffett mantra of owning either the market leader or the hungry #2

Goldman predicting that GLP-1 agonist drugs could boost US GDP by 1%

https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...ys-2024-02-22/

I just read in Galloway's newsletter that in the 60 minutes after its earning announcement NVDA added the market cap of Ford, GM and Ferrari combined to its market cap and in the past 6 weeks has added the market cap of Tesla.

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

I've had GOOG since IPO and sold some as it became too big a chunk of the portfolio.

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Would you have done better if you'd held onto it?

GOOG needs a new CEO. Pichai always looks nervous.

Bring back Marissa Meyer!

Afa not selling stock. Warren Buffett rarely sells long term stock. For example: I owned 2000 shares of MSFT at $27. Sold it at like $40 for some dumb reason. Same with BRK.B. After GFC I went full margin on 1000 shares at $65. Those two positions would be worth $1.3mm now.

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Originally Posted by babybear

He sounds like an excellent guy but I wouldn't agree with the above.
When one buys a stock they should have a timeline and sell price planned out.
Companies change and I also remind friends interested in investing to remember that they haven't "made" any money unless you actually take that profit.

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His approach (or Buffett's) would have been good for me:
Adjusted for the 4:1 split I bought NVIDIA at around 2.20-2.50, sold around 4.40-5.00 (2009). ... Oh well :D

On the other hand, a few companies I wanted to keep forever ( like CHK) went to zero. Maybe I'm not good at that thing :D

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Originally Posted by 4matic

GOOG needs a new CEO. Pichai always looks nervous.

Bring back Marissa Meyer!

Afa not selling stock. Warren Buffett rarely sells long term stock. For example: I owned 2000 shares of MSFT at $27. Sold it at like $40 for some dumb reason. Same with BRK.B. After GFC I went full margin on 1000 shares at $65. Those two positions would be worth $1.3mm now.

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So she can run two companies into the ground?

Google has all the tools to be great, they just need a culture reset and a compelling leadership drive to something. Right now feels like mediocre reactions to everything rather than really saying "this is where we want to win"

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Those two positions would be worth $1.3mm now.

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Sure, but as bbear said, it ain't worth a frickin' dime until you sell it.

This is why I hate the stock market. I don't have the stomach for all the shoulda woulda coulda.

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Originally Posted by yeahman

Would you have done better if you'd held onto it?

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Yes. But when I bought GOOG it was 1% of port. I trimmed it when it was 5% which violated a personal rule. I've done the same for both MSFT and AMZN.

The only "thing" I've allowed to be more than 5% are RRI and TIPs which are Canadian and US treasury - equivalents

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Yes. But when I bought GOOG it was 1% of port. I trimmed it when it was 5% which violated a personal rule. I've done the same for both MSFT and AMZN.

The only "thing" I've allowed to be more than 5% are RRI and TIPs which are Canadian and US treasury - equivalents

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When my dad passed GOOG was 60% of his portfolio. I don't think he ever intended that but he just rode it till the end.