Printable View
I made a quick 23% on WAL after its first big drop and sold. But then I got cocky and bought some FRC, which promptly dropped even more and ate up most of my gainz. Ye olde Wall Street casino provides the entertainment.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Stonks only go up.
Probably could post this in the RE thread, but this more to do with Commercial RE and banks that hold the loans on CRE.
Quote:
The next threat to banks, we are hearing:
Commercial real estate loans going bad.
Especially loans backed by office properties,
many of which remain troublingly unfilled three years
after the pandemic first revved up remote work.
Note how exposed banks are to CRE loans:
Half of current CRE loans are held by banks,
with smaller banks disproportionately represented.
For banks with only $1 billion to $10 billion in assets,
CRE loans account for a third of their total lending.
A great deal of CRE debt rolls over this year.
$270 billion matures and will need to be refinanced,
at a time when lenders are already tightening credit.
30% of that debt backs office buildings. A big wave
of refinancing will roll over the office sector from now
through 2026. In many of the top markets, 20%
or more of total space will have to be rolled over.
The office vacancy rate recently hit 17.3%.
Compare that with the pre-COVID level of 12% or so.
The remote work trend has likely peaked.
Bosses are getting more workers back to the office.
But vacancies will stay elevated for years.
Many distressed office buildings don’t have years for things to normalize.
Loans backing office properties are already going into default. Five buildings in Denver,
for instance, may be entering the process. Columbia Property Trust defaulted on seven,
mostly in New York and San Francisco. A subsidiary of Brookfield Properties
defaulted on loans backing two buildings in Los Angeles. More defaults are likely
The commercial RE hole is in the trillions of dollars. There is no way the federal reserve and the federal government will allow the commercial RE bubble to crash all the way to a natural price discovery level.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Calling it now- They'll print a mutli-trillion dollar bailout.
If they bail that out, it is gonna be hell to pay politically and economically.
Totally agree on the economic price to pay of a commercial RE bailout. It will lead to more inflation and will keep asset prices higher than they should be.
Political price to pay? Nah, definitely not. American politicians down answer to voters, they answer to donors.
Only to a point though, they still need to get elected. Multi trillion bailout of strip malls and empty office complexes is going to rile up even the WFH crowd and some heads will roll. The question is how many.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
So if there was a real problem with the economy and banking collapse or whatever, couldn't the Fed just drop rates back down and then the market would rally and a lot of this stuff would just fix itself? Or maybe I'm thinking a little to simply here.
The S&P 500 today is at about the same level it was on:
3/31/23
2/21/23
2/13/23
2/1/23
12/13/22
12/1/22
9/12/22
8/26/22
8/2/22
6/9/22
5/27/22
5/6/22
5/2/22
yeah, my guess a year ago was we would bounce around 4k for awhile. I'm guessing that will continue. I should have bought more in Oct :-)
T chart ready to breakout. Could run to $30.
I can’t really speak to the economy…. It’d fuck with NIM on the banking side though. Just starting to see movement on loan portfolio yields…. But not enough. If rates dropped back down it would wipe out unrealized losses, which are much to do about nothing if liquidity also comes back, and increase duration on time deposits.Quote:
Originally Posted by Name Redacted
Be nice if the fed stopped pulling levers for a few minutes.
“levers were made for pullin’…”
Attachment 454693
fact.
I totally agree with Stewart’s sentiment and desired outcome. But I think this is where scapegoating the Fed is letting everyone else off the hook.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazderati
The Fed has a mandate to control inflation (and also to maintain full employment, which is in tension with maintaining low inflation somewhat). And they’ve been given a limited number of tools to go about doing that.
I don’t think they have a means pick and choose where in the economy to target inflation: they can’t reduce the 30% of inflation being driven by corporate profits, but not impact the inflation driven by increasing wages of workers.
But other policy makers could certainly do something like that.
WAL! Stonks!!!
https://s21.q4cdn.com/920996046/file...22-(Final).pdf
Beat eps expectations. Deposits increased. Thx Yellen! Thx JPow
Nice bump today on WAL
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Got some more FRC through puts which I sold bringing avg price now down to high teens. Still underwater there though but less so
Short premium is the way to go after a gap down.Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
FRC had so much IV I sold covered calls and wrote puts to get the cost base down. At this point I'm playing the equity thesis that (i) bad news has been priced in (equity is 15% of book); (ii) a forced sale of entire enterprise is off the table so no mark to market valuation is required.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
If the deposits stabilize or grow IMO that's a win.
Buy the dip on TSLA now? or hope & wait until it drops to $150?
Struggling Bed Bath & Beyond files for bankruptcy protection
But wen squeeze!??!!Quote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
BBBY put sellers on r/thetagang. Thoughts and prayersQuote:
Originally Posted by JimmyCarter
https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/c...t=share_button