Another 75 basis points. That should just about do the trick.
Printable View
Another 75 basis points. That should just about do the trick.
Hindspeak. Powell missed at the start and he will miss at the end.
Babbling nonsense in the presser.
“I don’t see any method at all sir”
https://youtu.be/3T-VAi2Xqq8
What happened at 2:34 pacific today?
Was that when someone ruined the party by repeating loudly Powell's remarks about rates peaking higher than the Fed expected back in September?Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
There was full employment and low inflation for before pandemic. So now Fed is focused on that one metric because it’s what they can hammer on? Plus, the thought that they have to drain excess savings to curb demand is cruel.
Don’t get wrong. I’m positioned for the Fed to fail soft landing or inflation is in fact transitory.
Fed will split soon if they haven’t already. The statement didn’t jive with Powell comments.
Powell also said he wasn’t Converned with the dollar. Other countries arent his problem. He’s right that’s a treasury issue
How can you position for potential hard landing AND for runaway inflation?
I've been continuing to dollar cost average into VTI. I'm considering making a large, non-leveraged asset purchase. The assets that I'm interested in are continuing to inflate I think the hard landing and asset price correction I've been planning for may not happen. I think the Fed will probably pivot to protect asset prices and accept inflation if SHTF.
I’ve been making my monthly purchases for my sep ira, but I think it’s worth waiting to make a large asset purchase. I covered my shorts a few weeks ago from my personal a.acct. But did not go long. If we go higher, you can change plans and buy a dip, but I’d imagine you’d flip flop between being the green vs red for a few yrs. Plus your making money in cash again now.
I just see the payoff being worth it should we see lower lows. I hate catching a falling knife and have held shot for yrs making that mistake only to break even.
At some point, people will be buying bonds again and I think that will hurt the mkt. especially in Muni’s, there ain’t much out there.
I’m not positioned for inflation at all and have lost money because of it. Inflation is forecast to fall sharply by the end of next year into 24 (Gundlach-others) If inflation falls that fast it’s not going to just stop at 2% and go sidewise? That’s believing the Fed who 14 months ago had a projected funds rate at .6 end of 2022. It’s now 700% higher than their forecast. So why would I believe them now?
Either way is reason enough for asset prices to fall. Especially high pe names like ROKU. That can easily be a $10 stock. Great product with no scale or growth.
Imo: Fed should stop hiking rates and accelerate QT if they need more tightening. They could have done that so much earlier and gotten 100’s of billion more in proceeds. Otoh, the rate is more attractive on maturing bonds for investors and they need to dump a lot of paper.
Strangely this was posted at 1:18 PST?Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
My bad plot was in Eastern showing the drop at that time.
Yeah, that conflicting fed talk sure shook things up. Got crushed on most everything today, down 2.2%.
I took it as an opportunity, picked up two shares of GOOGL at $88.75 and then two more at $87. Grabbed two shares of AMZN at $92.20 and ten shares of AMD at $58.25.
I’m going to keep trying to ease into a larger position on ARCC, trying to sell a couple of OOTM puts. If they sell I hope I’ll be assigned rather than the meager premium.
Futures up a tad tonight, the market seemed to have priced in the .75 hike, wondering if tomorrow may be an up day? Most of my holdings beat earnings, and guidance improved. (Pipelines have been kicking ass and paying the cash.) If growth/tech gets beat further down I’m going to keep trickling in with a few shares a day.
Went hard on $GOOG before the June BMR. REKT now. Thinking about adding more at these levels. Seems oversold AF.
Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
Y'all day-trader stock-pickers are just blindly throwing darts at a dartboard. Look at PSLDX for a long term hold with upside (and risk).
Never take financial advice from someone who says "y'all".
I know we're in bizzaro world right now, but the imbalance between TA and analyst rating is quite striking. PE ratio looks bottomed out.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
Sad thing is, The Street probably wants to see Sundar roll some heads before sending stonk higher.
Anyway, this will continue to be a long-term hold for me.
Attachment 432255
Attachment 432256
EOG just dropped its nuts on the table.
Energy stocks, hy, long treasuries (20+)
Otherwise. Stocks. Are. Going. Down. Moar.
Layoff season starting early. 3k in the Bay Area already this week without TWTR. I’m thinking AMZN drops 100k after the New Year.
Get out now
That’s shitty. Most all 401k providers will allow for a direct custodian to custodian transfer. No check, no withholding but you will need to liquidate and be out of the market during the transfer process.Quote:
Originally Posted by uglymoney
Also, minimal reasons to ever keep your 401k at an old provider. You are paying a plan admin fee that you wouldn’t if held in an IRA. Most plans are focused on low cost vanguard type funds, readily available elsewhere. Going with the vanguard type lineup helps to to minimize fiduciary liability for the employer.
Yikes. No bueno.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Why is that? How do you think portfolio managers get in, out and hedge positions, let’s say you have $100k worth of stock allocated and it needs to go through a transfer out of the market for one week. You could buy an equal amount of derivative to hold until the money is transferred. If your correlated to the derivative it’s a neutral trade. It really is the perfect scenario for weekly options but a futures contract is always cheaper because there’s no time premium.Quote:
Originally Posted by Irishexit
A big layoff at AMZN would be very bullish for the stock. Corporate margins are a big source of inflation. If they cut costs with higher prices and margins that’s positive.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
As Meta moves to shrink its office footprint, the Facebook parent is backing out of a plan to fill a new building in downtown Austin.
The tech giant plans to sublease rather than occupy the 589,000 square feet it leased
I get the concept and allocate to those types of managers. 100% can be effective if you have the experience and info advantage.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
But to give that as advice for a retail strategy, you are basically giving someone a dull sword and sending them into the colosseum to get slaughtered.
Threw a few more darts today. Bought two more GOOGL at $84, going to keep going with this if it continues down further tomorrow. I now have 42 shares with a cost basis of $102.63. Set an order to buy two of AMZN at $89, missed it by .02. The order is GTC and hopefully it fills tomorrow.
In the tradition of buying stuff I’m down on I picked up another 100 warrants of PSNY, because, why the hell not? (They were trading for .63 this morning.) My YOLO trade for the day. I still believe in the theory of the major auto manufacturers catching up and leaving Elon behind at some point. I’ve started grabbing a few shares of F in that stream of thinking, the Volvo/Polestar trade seems pretty reasonable.
I keep looking at META, tremendous upside but I just can’t get past the total Zuck control. If Reality Labs pays off it could be big, if not it could/will suck off a lot of cash. I’m always looking to buy AAPL, they went down a bit today and then again after hours. I’m hoping to pick up a few shares on the cheaper if it continues to swoon tomorrow morning.
The part of me that thinks recession is coming on is kinda ok with it. It will be the time to load up every penny into investments while they are cheap. Ride that shit out and reap the rewards on the other side. If a recession doesn’t come along, be happy with the money you’ve set aside.
Regardless, keep looking for your future.