Is the stock market going to tank?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 406

With oil/midstreams also down, my brokerage account is getting hammered.

---

I was down 5.6% for the day. This week is dividend week for most of my midstreams, I’m ok with a fall back just in time for DRIP to buy a bit cheaper. I’ve got some cash in my account, MPLX is back to where I bought last year, if it goes any lower I’ll probably use my cash there.

Still trying to figure out how puts are assigned. I had three that definitely went under water today with share price, strike price and premium losing for me. None of them assigned. A few weeks ago I had one that assigned four days before the date when it went .01 underwater?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Summit

Stocks down
Energy down
Commodities down
Gold down
Crypto down
Bonds down
Dollar up

What does that spell?

---

Lending rates up

Spells the end of an Era


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BobMc

I was down 5.6% for the day. This week is dividend week for most of my midstreams, I’m ok with a fall back just in time for DRIP to buy a bit cheaper. I’ve got some cash in my account, MPLX is back to where I bought last year, if it goes any lower I’ll probably use my cash there.

Still trying to figure out how puts are assigned. I had three that definitely went under water today with share price, strike price and premium losing for me. None of them assigned. A few weeks ago I had one that assigned four days before the date when it went .01 underwater?

---

Two ways.

Some one can early exercise on you. But that would have to be deep in the money, otherwise they are giving away money. I.e. The premium over parity. Very rare with a low interest rate environment. They do this to avoid paying interest on the long stock they carry against the put you sold them. Dividends play a factor too.

Expiration. If you have the cash to be assigned otherwise you need to close out prior.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by neufox47

Currently sitting on a bunch of cash. No idea what to do with it. Money is earmarked to one day be spent on a down payment for a mountain house. Do I just leave it sit or invest it somewhere? I really don’t want to lose liquidity to either pivot to equities or real estate though. Currently collecting a whopping .25%.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

---

Do you have your i-bonds for the year? Can open them in kids SS number too.

I'm waiting on VOO to get to $330 for a smallish buy, $300 bigger buy, ~$250 biggest buy. Probably the same with VYM at $90, $80, $70.

Sofi accidentally released quarterly earnings this morning, was supposed to be after the bell today. Upstart reported terrible numbers after the bell yesterday and sunk like a rock today. SOFI was in line with estimated EPS and beat on revenue, but they lowered Q2 guidance even though yearly was raised. The UPST numbers, the early release, and the Q2 guidance combined to start a panic.

It sunk to $4.87 and trading was halted. Other than the Q2 guidance the rest of the report was great, full year guidance raised, increased members, increased product sales, even with the student loan moratorium the loan numbers were up well YOY.

My two puts I’d sold for $1.40 and $1.81 were selling at $3.05, couldn’t help myself and put in an order at that which filled immediately once trading renewed. I already have 200 shares, I’m either going to end up with 500 shares @ $7.99 per (I’m in my original 200 @ $11.86 per) or keep $625 in premiums.

(I think, math is hard)

Other than that excitement it was a pretty sideways day. CMPS reported an EPS of (.50) which beat estimates of (.67), they also reported upbeat news on FDA meetings on Phase II trials and finalizing phase III trials. They were up 11.4% on that report, which was nice as I’ve been crushed on that stock.

I was hoping to buy COIN for $100, instead I got it for $56.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I was hoping to buy COIN for $100, instead I got it for $56.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

---

They $2/share loss reported wow

Wow. I got Murder.

But it will be ok. I ain’t selling nuthin. Any I ain’t buying nuthin. For the first time in a long I have no idea. ?

Survival. About. 3000 down. It means shit to me.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Summit

They $2/share loss reported wow

---

There is an article out there talking about how their customers collateral could be held in a bankruptcy situation. It was a standard disclosure.


Most people don’t realize, that when you sign a margin agreement, anywhere, the firm can use your assets as collateral. See John Corzine blow out.

Never open a margin account. And if you do, don’t hold your long term assets in it.

And that is my stoke for the day.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Margin assets not covered by SIPC?

COIN misses target by 30% and guides lower? How do you value it?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cono Este

There is an article out there talking about how their customers collateral could be held in a bankruptcy situation. It was a standard disclosure.


Most people don’t realize, that when you sign a margin agreement, anywhere, the firm can use your assets as collateral. See John Corzine blow out.

Never open a margin account. And if you do, don’t hold your long term assets in it.

And that is my stoke for the day.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

---

I trade on coinbase pro, only spot. But I've been led to believe that even the spot exchanges would not be able to cover if everyone withdrew at the same time. Jan 3 is supposed to be Proof of Keys day (https://hackernoon.com/not-your-keys...itcoin-z6k3ktb) but I haven't participated in it.

I also have an account at Celsius and I know for a fact that my assets are lent out and my loan collateral is rehypothecated. That's the business model.

I'm slowly mining into cold storage, but it will take a long time and I will always want to use some of my wealth as collateral, so there's that.

It's a balancing act, balancing risk, not getting rekt.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BobMc

Sofi accidentally released quarterly earnings this morning, was supposed to be after the bell today. Upstart reported terrible numbers after the bell yesterday and sunk like a rock today. SOFI was in line with estimated EPS and beat on revenue, but they lowered Q2 guidance even though yearly was raised. The UPST numbers, the early release, and the Q2 guidance combined to start a panic.

It sunk to $4.87 and trading was halted. Other than the Q2 guidance the rest of the report was great, full year guidance raised, increased members, increased product sales, even with the student loan moratorium the loan numbers were up well YOY.

My two puts I’d sold for $1.40 and $1.81 were selling at $3.05, couldn’t help myself and put in an order at that which filled immediately once trading renewed. I already have 200 shares, I’m either going to end up with 500 shares @ $7.99 per (I’m in my original 200 @ $11.86 per) or keep $625 in premiums.

(I think, math is hard)

---

I've used a few neobanks and Sofi's UX is miles ahead of the others.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by shera

I trade on coinbase pro, only spot. But I've been led to believe that even the spot exchanges would not be able to cover if everyone withdrew at the same time. Jan 3 is supposed to be Proof of Keys day (https://hackernoon.com/not-your-keys...itcoin-z6k3ktb) but I haven't participated in it.

I also have an account at Celsius and I know for a fact that my assets are lent out and my loan collateral is rehypothecated. That's the business model.

I'm slowly mining into cold storage, but it will take a long time and I will always want to use some of my wealth as collateral, so there's that.

It's a balancing act, balancing risk, not getting rekt.

---

I’m just pointing out, that when these douchnozzle brokers open your accounts, if you don’t plan to trade options and futures, don’t sign the margin agreement.

And I would never send my money to some non name B\D, especially a crypto firm. Except for whatever I may be playing crypto with.

If I had a shit ton of Bitcoin, I’d be holding it in a USB wallet in a Cayman Islands safety deposit box.

Having started off in the back office settleing trades line by line at 3:30 A.M. this is my advice.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Good advice. Or Switzerland box maybe? :)

Moving 401s very conservative.

All these retail investors “buying the dip” and creating mini dead cat bounces, which then fade. I think we are still a long way from the bottom, and will take months to get there, not hours.

Interest rates will continue to rise. QE is over. QT has started. The Fed “put” is done, for now. That all has consequences.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by billyk

All these retail investors “buying the dip” and creating mini dead cat bounces, which then fade. I think we are still a long way from the bottom, and will take months to get there, not hours.

Interest rates will continue to rise. QE is over. QT has started. The Fed “put” is done, for now. That all has consequences.

---

Maybe. T was up today. IBM too. Dow only down 1%. A credit event might happen but treasury yields can move lower and dividend stocks can get bid.
Even IWM way outperformed QQQ today. Yield in the diamonds is 1.84% now.

At some point we move sidewise in the indices while the no earnings stars continue to get hammered.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Maybe. T was up today. IBM too. Dow only down 1%. A credit event might happen but treasury yields can move lower and dividend stocks can get bid.
Even IWM way outperformed QQQ today. Yield in the diamonds is 1.84% now.

At some point we move sidewise in the indices while the no earnings stars continue to get hammered.

---

I bought T today. Msft and coin. All small. I’ve started to sell gold and position to buy lower. Still another 20% to go in my opinion and a long, long hold but this is all sep ira money.

I made shit on gold, so it will probably go up not. But I’m still 20% gold and silver.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Did it again. Sold a little gld, bought more msft, t, dis, coin, sq, bayer


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Did it again. Sold a little gld, bought more msft, t, dis, coin, sq, bayer


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

---

I love MSFT and think it is unfairly beaten up, but I also sold some a few days ago because I think it has more to go down, like the market.

Why T?

DIS has a P/E > 60? Why DIS?

I bought a pittance of COIN at $50 on a lark as a short term play, but I don't believe in it long term. On a reverse theory, I bought BABA at $82.

FLNG missed earnings and has been getting trashed.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by billyk

All these retail investors “buying the dip” and creating mini dead cat bounces, which then fade. I think we are still a long way from the bottom, and will take months to get there, not hours.

Interest rates will continue to rise. QE is over. QT has started. The Fed “put” is done, for now. That all has consequences.

---

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cono Este

and position to buy lower. Still another 20% to go in my opinion and a long, long hold but this is all sep ira money.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

---

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in...ll-11652204827

Watching and waiting.
BLK, down ~38% from high. Now at ~15x earnings (of course earnings can fall too).
MSFT, TXN, AMAT, UGI, PFG, SWKS all on radar.
Bottom feeding has worked well for me (mostly).

EVGO is up ~20% today which is nice. I'm still underwater on it but not by much now. I need to find a few extra dollars and add some more SOFI soon.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VTeton

I doubt that's happening but if it does, I'm gonna lever up.

I bought SOFI near IPO at about $24. Have since increased my position by 14X.

My cost per share is $12 at this point. Gonna HOLD but feel a little discomfort at this point.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

---

Ugly... Cost per share is now under $10, not keeping me up at night yet...

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Summit

I love MSFT and think it is unfairly beaten up, but I also sold some a few days ago because I think it has more to go down, like the market.

Why T?

DIS has a P/E > 60? Why DIS?

I bought a pittance of COIN at $50 on a lark as a short term play, but I don't believe in it long term. On a reverse theory, I bought BABA at $82.

FLNG missed earnings and has been getting trashed.

---

I’m a horrible analyst. I have a small list of blue chips I’ve been buying for over 20 yrs. I think I first bought dis at 30 something. I also throw money into MO, JNJ, PEP, and a few others.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I’m a horrible analyst. I have a small list of blue chips I’ve been buying for over 20 yrs. I think I first bought dis at 30 something. I also throw money into MO, JNJ, PEP, and a few others.

---

Cool. I'm novice at this so I am just trying to understand people's rationale. I'll probably still be a novice in another 20 years :biggrin:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Summit

Cool. I'm novice at this so I am just trying to understand people's rationale. I'll probably still be a novice in another 20 years :biggrin:

---

T is up on the year. Up today. Pays a 5% fully covered dividend and spin-off the controversial and debt burdened Warner Media. Plus, they are thinking about raising prices for cell plans.

I hate and don’t get the correlation to crypto. I suppose it weakens a key demographic spending power.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Summit

Cool. I'm novice at this so I am just trying to understand people's rationale. I'll probably still be a novice in another 20 years :biggrin:

---

I know risk, options, and can call shit in the near term better than most. I also can still put up. 23 sec 50 yrs freestyle, but that’s for another time and place.

I learnt from all my trust fund friends, buy good shit and never sell. My criteria is that no matter what happens, the company will be around. I have a friend who just inherited around 1 billion in UPS stock his grandfather bought in 1945. No one has ever sold a single share. Not one.

Unless of course the world ends 30 min from now, which is a small probability, but increasing with mission creep.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by VTeton

Ugly... Cost per share is now under $10, not keeping me up at night yet...

---

Heh, I was all ready to assure you with member numbers, bank charter, products…

Then saw a random comment on a Seeking Alpha article. Went out and found their most recent filing, confirmed.

“Proposal 5:
To approve an Amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to give the Board of Directors discretionary authority to effect a reverse stock split”

My puts are for Oct, so I’m not terribly worried, but that doesn’t make me feel tingly. I have a feeling tomorrow may be time to sell another put? Heh, in for a penny in for a pound.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by BobMc

Heh, I was all ready to assure you with member numbers, bank charter, products…

Then saw a random comment on a Seeking Alpha article. Went out and found their most recent filing, confirmed.

“Proposal 5:
To approve an Amendment to the Company’s Certificate of Incorporation to give the Board of Directors discretionary authority to effect a reverse stock split”

My puts are for Oct, so I’m not terribly worried, but that doesn’t make me feel tingly. I have a feeling tomorrow may be time to sell another put? Heh, in for a penny in for a pound.

---

They probably need to keep it above $5/share to prevent fund selling.

Sofi up 15% today. Probably down 20% monday.....

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Unless of course the world ends 30 min from now, which is a small probability,

---

World probably won't end, but you might.

Nasdaq 100 into oversold weekly RSI for first time since Great Recession. Wowza.

Charts look much lower. Inflation worry will turn to deflation soon enough especially if the dollar stays strong.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Charts look much lower. Inflation worry will turn to deflation soon enough especially if the dollar stays strong.

---

What about stagflation? Feels like we're gonna go from, "the economy and job market are strong" to "everything is fucked" as quickly as we went from transitory to persistent inflation.

Not long term like the 70’s. There’s going to be huge layoffs coming for the highly paid meme librarians and marginal tech workers. Service economy will then have a better supply of workers.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Charts look much lower. Inflation worry will turn to deflation soon enough especially if the dollar stays strong.

---

Do you mean charts aren't as bad as they look? Or that you think we're going lower?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Not long term like the 70’s. There’s going to be huge layoffs coming for the highly paid meme librarians and marginal tech workers. Service economy will then have a better supply of workers.

---

I hope you're right. I'm tired of living through financial crises.

Long term chart looks like nasdaq 8k. S&P 3200. Take back all the pandemic gains is reasonable.

10y rate was 1.8% then so lower is possible or rates have to come off.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

There’s going to be huge layoffs coming for the highly paid meme librarians...

---

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/eb/e8...fd34696bfb.jpg

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by stalefish3169

Do you mean charts aren't as bad as they look? Or that you think we're going lower?



I hope you're right. I'm tired of living through financial crises.

---

As long as humans are irrational creatures, you’re always gonna have crises.