Is the stock market going to tank?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
BobMc
Most of the FAANG stocks all went up today, especially after hours sympathetic with META. I think the market was priced in for a weak earnings report season. Seems most companies have delivered a beat and the market has been responding. Powell’s .25 didn’t hurt, but one has to wonder whether the acknowledgement of future rate hikes won’t hurt in a bit. (Seems sometimes the market is a bit slow to digest news.).
Market was priced for 25bps and continued hawkish rhetoric from Powell. They got the 25, no big deal. But the press conference language actually acknowledged that inflation is really going in tue right direction. Sure they started it off with the generic “inflation still higher than where we want it”…but everything else had the stink of a fed that may not hike another 2+ times.
Decreasing the amount of hikes/terminal fed funds is bullish for stocks- investors know higher rates will push the economy into a deeper recession eventually. But it may not be that bad if Fed doesn’t go overboard (I think it’s too late). So the news- or the stink- that the fed could pause, great for stocks, especially high growth stocks like FAANG, who’s valuation is based on long term earnings growth…higher discount rates hit this discounted earnings valuation harder. So when the news- or stink- is for lower rates, good for stocks, better for growth stocks, great for high growth (high valuation) stocks.
Plus Meta is buying back $40b in stock. That helps.
Is the stock market going to tank?
My “all in” portfolio from last April/May went in the black today. Up 1.25%. Long road that clearly could have been managed better; happy with the mix. Yields 6.25%. Pays roughly .5% a month. I take the dividends in cash and distribute 90% for income. In order of allocation:
FMSDX
BOND
PDI
EMB
JEPI
BOND is the crappiest of the lot but the yield is up 30% and creep to par should really help as the year goes on.
I’d consider selling BOND and EMB at some point but not for a while.
If AAPL turns up tomorrow and NFP friendly, hang on to your hat.
Is the stock market going to tank?
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