Not the usual garden variety regulatory risk eitherQuote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
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Not the usual garden variety regulatory risk eitherQuote:
Originally Posted by LeeLau
Had a client call me last week and ask how to value their equity stake in a mine that a foreign government had just seized…Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Me: do you want the long answer or should I just skip to “0”?
Ugh. Which govt. there are some motherfuckers out there. Starting w China.
One of your standard North African countries with a history of expropriationQuote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
We can get a bounce but WE MUST HOLD THE LINE
Larry Summers has the answer:
Quote:
Summers said in a speech on Monday from London there needs to be a lasting period of an unemployment rise to contain inflation — either, a one year spike to 10%, two years of 7.5% unemployment, or five years of 6% unemployment.
Put a different way, Summers is calling for the unemployed rolls to swell to roughly 16 million from just under 6 million in May.
President Joe Biden said he spoke with Summers on Monday, though he said a U.S. recession can be avoided.
The way Summers framed the numbers suggests he’s talking about what’s known as the Sacrifice Ratio, which is the link between unemployment and inflation. According to Jason Furman, the former chair of President Obama’s Council of Economics Advisers, in the 25 years before the pandemic, the Sacrifice Ratio has been six percentage points — meaning one year of a 6 percentage point jump in unemployment, or two years of a 3 percentage point increase in the jobless rate, would be required to knock down inflation by a full percentage point.
Not that he’s wrong but when you’re fed chair I’m not sure Summers answer works. Dual mandate and all.
Price stability and full employment
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Right now the Fed has hit it's mark on one but missed it's mark on the other
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So, pain for poor people. Man, wonder how the millions unemployed will feel about their buying power?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
Meh, they didn't want to work anyway. People are just lazy. Give em a couple of years in breadlines and they will be glad to go back to the sweatshop for 6 bucks an hour.
And Larry Summers can go suck a bag of dicks. I never liked that guy or his thought process.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
So...supply. Shocking to learn that a bunch of money guys don't know how to make anything. Shocking.Quote:
Originally Posted by F#*k you cat
Some will end up in prisons producing ~2 bil worth of goods & services for 60 cents/hour. Merkia!Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
How about a federal jobs guarantee to boost our productive capacity to end the supply chain issues causing inflation instead throwing people into a wood chipper to reduce inflation?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
That’s inflationary. The supply CHAIN issues are working themselves out. A lot of the issues now are pure supply. Not enough of stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by mcphee
And the fed working to destroy demand will resolve those supply issues, yes, with some byblow of pain and misery.
id say the money people don’t know or care how stuff is made, and show no signs of giving a fuck. The underlying issues will get worse, not better
If anybody has gazprom adrs, you can now open an account at gazprombank by email, then have your broker transfer the shares to them, she you will get ordinary Russian shares. Which have a great dividend.
Ask me how i know.
And if you own other Russian adrs, you can transfer them also, but only after a trip to Moscow to identify yourself.
Again, ask me how i know.
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GSCI is 10% off it’s recent high. It’s still up 40% yoy but only slightly above its pre-war price.
Spent too much cash buying EPD and MMP on the dips, don’t have enough to sell XOM puts anymore. Gonna try to move over into selling puts on MRO, it’s down steeply the last few days. I’ll watch the pre-market tomorrow morning and see what I think I can get away with.
Put in an order to buy 90 more shares of GGPI, barely under closing. That’ll give me 100 to go along with my 100 warrants. Shareholder vote tomorrow to merge the SPAC, should start trading under a new ticker by the end of week. Still holding those, Lee?
Set another “if I’m buying stock I should buy a share of AAPL order”, set it at $133, doubt it fills. Set a SOFI $5 Jul 8 put order at .20, I’m ok with grabbing more at that price.
That’ll still leave me a bit of cash to play with, a part of me wants to throw it all in and a part of me says chill…
GGPI order somehow filled pre-market, 90 shares at $9.60. That worked out well, merger approved, stock up 18% on the day. It starts trading as PSNY on Friday.
Sold a $22.50 July 1 put on MRO for $93. Coulda bought it back for a $30 profit a few hours later, decided I’d rather have the shares at that rate. It tailed down as the day went on, will see what tomorrow brings…
SOFI put and AAPL buy didn’t fill. AAPL buy is GTC, letting the SOFI put stay expired. If MMP or EPD are cheap at opener I’m going to grab 20 more MMP and probably 100 more EPD.
I know I should diversify from the pipelines, but I can’t help myself.
Bob. I still have GGPI. My avg was crap in the mid 12s and I dipped in more to get it down to the (edit) high 11s. A bit nervous about the deSPAC because the market is so bad
August WTI is the only month over $100 now
20 month low in copper.
Corn and Wheat at risk for much larger declines.
Xpeng, $XPEV has an average analyst price of $280. Trading at $30. Watched a review on the p7 that sells for $35k. Impressive package.
Another interesting stock is JOBY trading at $5. It’s well capitalized
https://www.jobyaviation.com
https://app.dealroom.co/companies/joby_aviation
2y rate crashes back below 3%. Down 50bp from its recent high. 10y on the verge. 3% is support for the 10y so I’d like to see a close or three below. At this point an aggressive Fed move will flatten the curve.