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I cant believe none of these people have blown out. I’m not a bond trader, but these are massive moves in the one of the biggest most liquid mkts in the world.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
A blind person could see it coming, but there’s always some genius who strapped it on and takes everyone down with him.
Who the pensions? Insurance co’s?
Their liabilities decreased as much (at worst) as their bonds have.
No, I’m thinking a big hedge fund, like a long term Capitol explosion.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Some of these “geniuses” literally just strap on a giant spread, in bonds I’d imagine they short the yield curve, and they just keep adding to it as it goes against them, and they never put the brakes on, then one day boom! Force to unwind a trillion dollars in futures at the worst possible time for everyone.
Some of the biggest trades I’ve ever heard of, put on by these “geniuses”, that blow up, would get you fired instantly at any place that has any legitimate risk management in place.
Oh there will be some hedge funds blowing up for sure.
But they don’t answer to the Feds/regulators/etc like a bank does, so they can do it. And when they go belly up everyone else moves on with their lives.
https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2022...and-have-nots/
"pension funds are/have been servicing ever increasing margin calls driven by the extreme moves in real and nominal rates. They are on a hunt for liquidity (cash) to service these calls at the same time the liquidity (bid offer spread) of asset markets is extremely fragile. A sub layer to this dynamic is that pension funds are also a significant provider of gilts to the repo market (which they repo out to fund levered investments) and where we are now seeing some strain as these gilts are either withdrawn from repo programmes (to sell, as of yesterday to the BOE) or repo’d out to raise cash to fund said margin calls..."
January 2022 from that same blog:Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
Conclusion Overall we are less worried about EM inflation in 2022, and selectively bullish on EM currencies with strong external accounts or where inflation may soon be peaking.
4matic that January piece is a bit more opinion than the one I posted... Again just some tidbits being dropped from the outliers...Not the CNBS types.
I’ve seen dysfunctional liquidity in bonds and mentioned it here a few times so not disagreeing. It can work the other way too with drop of a hat. 10y went from 3.50>2.50 just last month. Like the 80’s elevated bond and currency vol will probably last a while.
I still think rates will be lower 5 years from now.
That’s what the mkt is saying with the inverted yield.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I still think there could be force liquidation type margin call give them the hook type event that is worth banking on.
Difference between a double and a HR. And the HR’s don’t come around often.
I think they’ll be lower 1 year and 5 years from now
Lower rates years ahead, if true, are good opportunity for managed bond funds because they typically lag.
More Spending
+
Higher Debts
+
Lower Confidence
=
Lower Rates
I need some of whatever you are smoking. It must be good shit!
None of those affected long term trajectory of rates the past 40 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by NakedShorts
You will never get the truth out of a Fed chair. I mean, if they tell us the truth the market would have imploded and we would all be living on white bread and polluted water living in a cardboard box, down by the river. Still, we might get there. So, don't give up hope of having a one cardboard box shelter with river views.
Powell, The Self declared Cato institute Libertarian, said as much.
Maybe it’s Credit Suisse that gets it started:
Citing people familiar with the situation, Reuters reported last week that Credit Suisse was sounding out investors for fresh cash as it attempts a radical overhaul of its investment bank.
This is the first time stocks and bonds have fallen in tandem for three consecutive quarters since 1976, according to Strategas Research.
Spiraling losses on Wall Street are now snowballing into forced asset liquidation, according to Bank of America strategists. The NYSE Composite Index, which includes US stocks, depositary receipts and real estate investment trusts, has broken multiple technical support levels including its 200-week moving average, the 14,000 mark. Now, accumulated losses could force funds to sell more assets to raise cash, accelerating the selloff. Similarly grim milestones keep piling up for Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong. As September draws to an end, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has lost 14% to rank as the worst performer among major equity benchmarks globally in September. Hovering around the lowest since the global financial crisis, it is now trading at 0.6 times book value—the cheapest ever.
Wow, CCL down 23% today.
They missed on earnings, revenue, and reported diminishing reservations. I made good money selling calls last year on it, I got out of my 100 shares at $22.38 last year. They took on a shit ton of debt during the pandemic, I could see bankruptcy at some point.
By 2037-47servicing the interest on the debt eats up all descretionary spending, health care and social security.
Huh.
https://youtu.be/cDdbg66bS68
I predict a lot of people who retired during the pandemic on their fat portfolios will be re-entering the job market. Could help ease labor shortages.
Similar stories get recycled again and again and again... meh.Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
Starting to see some older folks working in the service industries. I doubt these folks had fat portfolios though.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
When you retire, The sequence of returns in you portfolio is the difference between hero and zero.
I’d wager way too many were over invested in equities, and considering bonds and gold have been hammered, it’s a going to be life wrecking for many who followed the traditional advice of their whore advisors.
I
Now that we are retired, I am glad we went with paid off rentals, rather than the stock market. Sure RE goes down in value, but in 10 years it has always been higher in my lifetime. Rents help with inflation and rarely go down much, if at all. If you're younger, consider buying rentals, (2-4 units pencil out best). You can buy a duplex with as little as 3.5% down (FHA) or 5% down conventional (the way to go). Live there a few years, save and buy another. I have done loans for a few young men that did this over the last 10 years and the guys are on a solid path to a great retirement. Fuck the Casino, errr, stock market.
Rentals are a good investment but what a hassle. I watched my parents go through hell with that shit. Finally they said fuck it and sold them all.
Huge up day. Guessing we rally back to SP500 at 4000 before testing the recent lows yet again.
FNHC for the win today... Last week BEAT n SOBR were my wins... ya baby..UVXY has been a money maker too... die SPY die.
It can be outsourced pretty easily. But I too, am glad to have gotten out of that game for now. Sold in January.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
UPRO today thoQuote:
Originally Posted by whitekingsalmon
Impeccable timingQuote:
Originally Posted by Name Redacted
O, don't think it is all cashing checks and fun and games because it is a business that will require work (rehabbing properties) capital (to fix shit) and patience, because you will get the occasional fucked tenant no matter how carefully you think you screened them.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
But all that said, it works for me and once I get to old to deal with them, I will have the girls manage them if they want to inherit them. If not, we will sell and it is hookers and blow as I ride off into the Sunset.
Time will tell, but I'm glad to not have to deal with some of the maintenance and HOA issues that were coming down the pike more than anything. I could have easily rented it long term for double the mortgage payment but instead we took the money and bought a local business. Now that's kicking my ass far more than any rentals ever did. Ha.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Buying a rental property the last few yrs and locking in a 3% mortgage will go down as the greatest investment you could have made in the last few yrs. I wish I had done just that. Rent rose in the last recession. People were calling me and begging me to rent to them. Credit reports in the toilet, families etc. pretty sad actually.Quote:
Originally Posted by liv2ski