Looks like another record high for INDU and multiyear for Nasdaq. $80 oil, $1.42 Euro, $750 gold, and housing in the tank... Who'd have thought..?
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Looks like another record high for INDU and multiyear for Nasdaq. $80 oil, $1.42 Euro, $750 gold, and housing in the tank... Who'd have thought..?
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
...past performance is no guarantee of future results...;)
wait...Ive heard that somewhere...Quote:
Originally Posted by MeatPuppet
Any idea on the price of oil with winter coming up? Does the need for oil in the northeast (as well as the rest of the "cold states") generally shoot the per barrell price up?
Crude oil and refined product (gas and distillates) have independent market prices. If you noticed $80/barrel oil (more than at any point last year) with expensive but not crazy gas prices now (much less than last year) that should point out the related but completely independent nature of the two.
Usually crude fetches a higher price during the summer than winter, mostly because of driving and the need for gasoline and jet fuel (diesel) for planes. That need decreases during the winter months and while heating oil (diesel) demand increases, it doesn't generally pull up the price of crude. Crude oil was priced around $50/barrel in January of this year.
The problem with all this is the gas companies and refineries dictate the price and we suck it up and give them out $$$ because we "need" it. If the refinery is operating at 80%, producing less oil than it can, but fetching a higher price, there's no incentive to produce more and drive the price down. Same with OPEC and other crude oil producers. If crude is cheap, they simply refine less driving the price of the refined goods up and make more of a profit off of it. If crude is expensive, same game, starve the market a little and drive the price up. The only thing keeping gas/diesel prices down now is a larger than year ago supply and no storm activity in the gulf.
/end rant/
With that said, heating oil should be as high or higher pricewise than it has been. Same for natural gas, even though both are trading lower on the market than in the past. What I'm hoping for is cheap gas so trips up north don't kill me this winter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
The market climbs a wall of worry..............
One would think so, but if you look back at the last two years, the price of heating oil actually dropped during wintertime. If the winter is milder than expected the price will drop. If colder than expected the price tends to rise. So it's more about expectations and the weather than anything else.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Fundamentals really aren't my thing though. As Cono Este said in an earlier post in this thread; Don't predict, react! That's good advice, I try to follow it.
it's not going to tank, but it will be flat for the rest of the year.
the housing market is still in a whole, there's no money to lend, energy prices are going up(as well as food staples) and DC is still on a spending spree despite what the donkeys said before the election and the rhinos said after.
despite what the businessmen say, this market is treading water. any other bumps could throw us back into another mild recession.
well, maria barfaroma was right - at the worst part of the dip she called 14000 before the end of the year. i just didnt expect it so soon. glad i just sat tight.
Another mild recession? When was the last mild recession?Quote:
Originally Posted by SkiCougar
??
What I really want to know is who in the US has experienced only 0.08% inflation as the government reports?
No one.Quote:
Originally Posted by Endlessseason
The CPI is deliberately falsified so that the government can attempt to inflate its way out of the Social Security shortfall that will otherwise completely bankrupt us or leave the dollar worthless (as in 0 CAD/Euro).
Social Security, and many other big benefits, are indexed to the official rate of inflation. By creating massive real inflation but lying about the rate of actual inflation, the government can decrease the value of its future obligations.
Greenspan, Bernanke and the Fed have created this inflation by lowering interest rates to a value that keeps money gushing into the economy. This enriches the Wall Street bankers who make billions from shuffling money from one place to another, while impoverishing the middle classes who are on a fixed salary by inflating away the value of that salary and any savings you have accumulated.
The end result will be an Argentina-style destruction of the middle class. It doesn't happen all at once...it's a slow destruction. No matter how hard you work, you can't quite keep pace with inflation (and, soon, bank failures). Yes, it will happen here in America, and it is happening right now.
The only candidate for President whose policies can slow or stop this is Ron Paul. Voting for anyone else is fighting over the arrangement of deck chairs on the Titanic...it just won't matter in the long run. Giuliani will bankrupt us with the Iraq war, Hillary will bankrupt us with an ill-conceived and inefficient version of national heath care that benefits existing large insurance corporations and delivers health care only as a side effect. Only Ron Paul has had the balls to stand up, tell us all what is happening, and tell us how he will fix it.
Most likely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Yossarian
Buy some SDS or SJH and enjoy the ride.
The CSI, incredibly, does not include housing costs (except energy). So the whole run up, and now crash, will not be reflected in it. But, really, what kind of costs have you seen rise dramatically recently?Quote:
Originally Posted by Endlessseason
Dooh...Closer to 13000 today. If it breaks to 12700, shit could hit the fan to the downside.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris Knight
Bump...
Yen carry-trade is unwinding. Correlations breaking down. Asian markets are taking a big hit right now. Monday could get interesting.
I think we may test lows of August but I think we'll stay just above that. I also don't think we're going into a recession (as defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth) in the next year. Decelerated growth yes, but negative growth consecutively? nope.
Regarding the carry trade unwinding this article is prettyinformative.
The global economy is too strong and with the US at full employment its going to take more than the potential of not even 1% of the mortgage market to default. Ya there's going to be less public to private M&A and there's less liquidity now, but shit hasn't hit the fan quite yet. IMHO.
FXP looks good for the short term too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by skiaholik
The credit issues have spread far beyond the mortgage market. The systems foundation is based on easy access to the debt markets. Don't discount systemic risk/counterparty risk. It sounds like you already do, but if not just follow the trends in the debt, currency and commodities markets. Hopefully I'm just overreacting, it wouldn't be the first time.
Don't look now, but we're already there. If you calculate inflation the way we used to, before we took housing and energy out of the index (i.e. most of the household budget) and introduced pure fiction like "hedonic adjustments", you get about 10% inflation, meaning real GDP growth has been negative for some time now.Quote:
Originally Posted by skiaholik
Besides, most of the economic activity since 2001 has been fake, based entirely on HELOCs, not actual productivity. You can spend $10K on a credit card advance, or work a job and spend $10K of your income: the short-term economic effect is the same, but in the long-term, there has to be underlying productivity to sustain spending. We don't do productivity, we outsource it.
In the next few years we are going to find out exactly what the real American economy looks like. Hint: unless we elect Ron Paul, the answer is "Argentina".
Well then pass the Malbec and the Lomo, because Ron Paul won't win shit.
I'll take, "You got that fuckin'right" for a thousand pleaseQuote:
Originally Posted by Tippster
I don't know if Ron Paul is the answer (maybe he is), but I increasingly fear that you're right about the Argentina bit. I just hope I end up on the right side of the divide. It seems to be becoming more real in the Bay area.Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
Is the stock market going to tank?
Prolly.
Today has potential for a short term low. Oil reversing and the ten year note at 3.97%.
The market feels rotational to me with technology and defensive stocks strengthening vs. value and financials.
yeah, technology stocks....the new inflation hedge! :rolleyes2Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Freddie Mac possible cutting dividend, Dow technicals getting blown up, Retail sales still in question. Looks like even lower we shall go. I'm surprised the Mich. Confidence number came in slightly above the consensus. Although, 76.1 isn't all that great.
Oh, and CFC traded down to an 8-handle today. Chapter 11 rumors might have some eventual validity.
I think this Christmas shopping season is going to be notably lousy. The consumer has no savings and is living in fear right now. Not a good combination. We've been living on borrowed time (and money) for years now, even w/o dropping a few hundred billion/yr into Iraq. At some point, you've got to pay the piper.
As for Ron Paul - if he is the answer, I'll be damned if I know what the question is.
The question is "Why is everything slowly collapsing?"Quote:
Originally Posted by Tin Woodsman
The answer is "Relentlessly inflationary monetary policy by the Fed, resulting in excessively cheap credit, which creates an unsustainable economic bubble that primarily enriches Wall Street at the expense of everyone else's salary and savings being destroyed by inflation, and takes the world economy with it when it finally crashes."
Ron Paul is the only candidate to address this, because he's the only candidate not entirely financed by Wall Street. Goldman Sachs is the top campaign contributor to Barack Obama *AND* Mitt Romney. Wall Street makes up at least 15 of the top 20 contributors to every major candidate -- except Ron Paul.
http://rabbit-hole-journey.blogspot....-anointed.html
This is probably the major reason that he won't win. Primary canidates are annoited then propped up by the corporate press. We choose form what we are given. You forget about Kucinich and Dodd also. Theses guys are pro-constitution, anti-war and anti-corruption. They are also ignored. The system is self sustaining. Anybody who plans on making major changes will be ignored by the corporate press. Not that concentration of media ownership makes any difference:fm:Quote:
Originally Posted by Spats
Time to buy! I am.
I'm not predicting anything(or giving advice, for that matter), but if you are talking about indexes and someone put a gun to my head and said "buy or sell?" I would say sell. They have a ways to go before they bottom out, IMO.Quote:
Originally Posted by powderwhore
My best guess is to start buying the XLF and keep buying through the end of the year. PMs will start taking a chance on this stuff when the have a whole year rather then stepping on a landmine and screwing up their comp with a month to go. The risk reward is insane at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by MeatPuppet
The risk/reward on that move is questionable for my $$$. Frankly, I think an inverse fund on the XLF would be a safer bet into the 1st quarter of 2008, maybe 2nd quarter.Quote:
Originally Posted by CUBUCK
Critical juncture in a middle aged bull market next week. Strong down points to 11,400 Indu or lower. Any strength next week is a good thing for the bulls.
On rally's to 13,500 Indu or 7800 DAXI I'm looking to lighten up on big cap Euro (I've been holding for almost 20 years). A bear market here will crush Europe stocks..
Lower open market interest rates gives the Fed lots of flexibility so I remain a super bull for the baby boom retirement rally to dow 20,000 in two years. My favorite sector for the next 18 months is USA Dollar based large cap growth and technology.
If I had to pick one name that will benefit with the least risk in a new bull leg up I'd say Microsoft. Nasdaq: MSFT super bullish chart if it holds:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=9
I do, and they even deeper after today. Up about 15% in the last nine days. This is fun isn't it!Quote:
Originally Posted by MeatPuppet
E*Trade just sold $3 billion of CDOs to a hedge fund for 27 cents on the dollar.
If that's what mortgage-backed paper is really worth, most major banks are insolvent, as are a whole lot of municipalities, retirement funds, and endowments -- worldwide. Remember, however, that Wall Street wants its year-end bonuses, and the SEC filings don't have to happen until February. That's when the shit is really going to hit the fan...the writedowns so far are just a warmup.
Until then, expect the Fed to keep the liquidity hose blasting, investor sentiment to remain "PARTY PARTY RATE CUTS WOOOOO", and real inflation to remain around 10-11%.
Bernanke implies more rate cuts and market drops?? Hey finance mags are we nearing the end of the line here. Market so far has somewhat insulated itself from the crdit crunch with the talk of/ and actual rate cuts up until now.
Gold at $900 at one point, look at the treasury yields=FEAR. The dollar is going to take a giant shit with the next rate cuts.(as if it hasn't already).
How far are the sovereign wealth funds willing to go to buy us out of this mess?
Tell me something positive.
Considering all the bad news today and this past week the market is holding up quite nicely for now. I mean that in relative terms of course.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tourette Dude