Printable View
That last chart from JBDeJ seems most relevant, to me. It seems to show that credit card debt is well above the mean but not close to 20-year high. And I think the other missing variable is what effect, if any, does BNPL "debt" have? My understanding is that the amounts owed are not captured by the credit card debt information? And maybe those amounts are only one small blip in the picture.
Big fat risk tails aside, I agree, specially going into summer.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Id be buying January vol by the bushel as it went down. Maybe spread it off with august.
Heh, doing the opposite of what popular financial influences recommend, can return 1.2% a month:
"To explain the popularity of anti/unskilled finfluencers, we check what strategies the different finfluencer groups pursue, what belief biases their advice induces, and why competition does not drive out anti/unskilled finfluencers. Skill correlates with observable tweeting patterns, suggesting that social media platform users have a preference for anti/unskilled finfluencers. Following the advice by antiskilled finfluencers creates overly optimistic beliefs most times, overly pessimistic beliefs some times, and persistent swings in followers’ belief bias. An investment strategy contrarian to antiskilled finfluencers’ recommendations yields 1.2% monthly out-of-sample performance. These results provide novel evidence on how investors seek financial advice on social media and what role finfluencers play in excessive trading and inefficient prices in financial markets."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4428232
Thanks. I enjoyed the podcast.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
On the US side of the episode-
-There is an overabundance of money in the system, which means that traditional valuations are still out of the window.
-The overabundance of money makes it so that inflation is hard to predict.
-Fed put dates back to Greenspan and is still in place
-Supply of credit can expand even if interest rates are rising
Thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
His perspective on gen z being more like the silent generation and the greatest generation in that they want a community based government was also interesting.
I am formally declaring, a POUND THE TABLE, DOUBLE FISTED BUY on January vol and beyond.
POUND THE TABLE
Attachment 494264
This is a hedge against amzn, google, Tesla, coin and some other shit I’m up on.
Disclaimer, I am a washed up athlete with two bad shoulders, and some willmsay was a decent trader at one point in my life. Back when we yelled at each other. Blame them
Don't hurt your shoulders patting yourself on the back.
I’m sorry, would you like me to bullshit everyone instead?
I don’t fuck around with peoples wallets, I post my trades, and I will pat myself on the back unless you can find one bad piece of advice I’ve given in this thread since it began.
Anyone following the latest in the GME saga?
LeeLau- are you holding any GME this time around?
Sadly no. I find it hilarious but the short interest isn't there.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Like Cono I've been selling volatility but via meme stocks with high IV. My current favourite is AMC spreads
Taking advantage of the run up in AAPL by selling shares in my YOLO account which was 100% AAPL, and putting the proceeds in US Stock Index Fund.
Anyone raging in the yeildmax game? High yield option ETFs
Took a fair position in a few to feel it out and been stoked. Gnarly returns realized. Now in the process of exiting growth & bonds to go yolo on income dividends.
Suggestions for good ones?
I’ve been happy with MSTY, CONY, ULTY, and AMZY. Taking additional positions and entering NVDY. Pretty soon they’ll come out with inverse on some of these for a hedge. Then I’ll do the sandwich with NVDY, MSTY, and CONY as the underlying upside maybe at risk. Owning upside and downside in the volatility will be wise when it comes to dividend [on option premiums].
T
MO
BTI
In T at 20s which is obviously down a bit. The covered calls + dividend works out to a little over 10% which is nice. Down 13% from cost base isn't so nice. There's no shortage of decent cash flow fat yields out thereQuote:
Originally Posted by boltonoutlaw
Having said that savings accounts cash pays 6% so they have to compete
Who has 6% savings accounts?
Based on current data, nobody- https://www.depositaccounts.com/Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazderati
But LeeLau is Canuckistani, my Google search showed some banks there paying 6 or close to it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
No one, but my ufbDirect account is currently paying 5.25%. Pretty good for a fully liquid FDIC insured account.Quote:
Originally Posted by Mazderati
Usdc at 5.5%
Word. Yeah, that's definitely decent in current markets.
I buy money market mutual funds through my Schwab brokerage account. Keeps me from having to open up random bank accounts and then move money when a given bank lowers their rates.
Sorry! Wealthsimple pays 6%. BMO and others match as they have to compete. This is Canadian and where I'm parking cash for now
Anyone have thoughts on emerging markets doing well next 12 months? Thinking of getting some iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ex China ETF (EMXC).
I've only lost in emerging market funds and that was on a long term basis. Not only do you have the usual risk of stocks and stock funds, but the international funds must also contend w currency exchange. I've come to the conclusion that a US stock index fund has plenty of global exposure and that is sufficient.Quote:
Originally Posted by 406
It's true that a us fund has plenty of international exposure, but you also have to look at valuation, which is very high in the us and reasonable in emerging markets.
Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
Yeah, that is been my take too and why I was thinking about it, but was also thinking like what Rod said. I could see Mexico and India doing really well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Hopeless Sinner
Ditto. I know it is not true over all time horizons, but certainly over my working career, the US market has DRAMATICALLY outperformed my international/emerging holdings.
I haven't done it, but I have certainly thought about just eliminating it from my portfolio...it is a global economy, in a value weighted US index, most of the value is in firms that do business globally and most big successful non-US global firms end up trading in US markets.
I wonder if historical justifications for international exposure are just not as relevant anymore given increasing interconnection/globalization.
If and when the tide turns for global assets to outperform it could be decades long. I have an all asset fund that allocates to the space in debt and equity.
Just look at Chinese treasury bonds in the last year.
I did some more research and it looks like a large share of the US index funds explicitly exclude foreign-headquartered (other than tax-haven) companies, even if they trade actual share on US markets.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
So my premise above was kinda wrong. US markets are still capturing globalization and M&A on the part of US conglomerates, but they aren't capturing compaies with ADRs or companies like Taro Pharmaceuticals (Israeli company with primary stock on the NYSE). If Novo Nordisk finds the cure for cancer or Germany spawns the next big AI player, that could tilt the value proposition quickly.
So I guess I'll continue to maintain my international exposure.
https://youtu.be/OXfNQiVNBs4?si=cpgv74MsNO9VkhZu
The great taking. 2 min trailer.
What this guy is saying is 30/40 yrs ago the federal reserve rewrote the rules so if a too big to fail event occurs, all 401ks/ stocks/mbs's etc will and can be used. So all your assets are forfeited.
Interesting if true. Dude might have to mysteriously/unexplainably hang himself. Conspiracy? Fringe bs?
You will own nothing and be happy.
If it sounds too dumb to be true, it probably is.
:rolleyes2
Occam's razor…
fact.
It's written into the fed operations manual supposedly.Quote:
Originally Posted by skaredshtles
That guy has no idea what the GRA actually is and how it gets utilized.Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
It’s an account for recognizing gains and losses in gold holdings. To “revalue” the gold (and eliminate the GRA) they have to execute a market transaction to sell and then buy all the gold back at market prices, basically resetting the cost basis of the gold on the balance sheet.
It’s not the Fed being able to say “our gold is worth $100,000 an oz now, our debts are gone!”, it’s just a way of turning an unrealized gain into a realized gain. And once that’s done, any downward movement in the gold price could tank the central bank’s equity holdings, so they don’t actually want to do that.
https://youtu.be/1GHXe0PbNG4?si=KwHl2YTQ4ARUVDes
Author explaining it in first 10 min. I'm not saying it's true but interesting..
‘The Lord of the Rings’ movies were also interesting. Doesn’t make them true. But, hey, whatever keeps you jonesing for Bitcoin.Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1