Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tU3rGFyN5uQ

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I totally agree with Stewart’s sentiment and desired outcome. But I think this is where scapegoating the Fed is letting everyone else off the hook.

The Fed has a mandate to control inflation (and also to maintain full employment, which is in tension with maintaining low inflation somewhat). And they’ve been given a limited number of tools to go about doing that.

I don’t think they have a means pick and choose where in the economy to target inflation: they can’t reduce the 30% of inflation being driven by corporate profits, but not impact the inflation driven by increasing wages of workers.

But other policy makers could certainly do something like that.

WAL! Stonks!!!

https://s21.q4cdn.com/920996046/file...22-(Final).pdf

Beat eps expectations. Deposits increased. Thx Yellen! Thx JPow

Nice bump today on WAL


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Got some more FRC through puts which I sold bringing avg price now down to high teens. Still underwater there though but less so

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Got some more FRC through puts which I sold bringing avg price now down to high teens. Still underwater there though but less so

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Short premium is the way to go after a gap down.

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Originally Posted by Cono Este

Short premium is the way to go after a gap down.

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FRC had so much IV I sold covered calls and wrote puts to get the cost base down. At this point I'm playing the equity thesis that (i) bad news has been priced in (equity is 15% of book); (ii) a forced sale of entire enterprise is off the table so no mark to market valuation is required.

If the deposits stabilize or grow IMO that's a win.

Buy the dip on TSLA now? or hope & wait until it drops to $150?

Struggling Bed Bath & Beyond files for bankruptcy protection

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Struggling Bed Bath & Beyond files for bankruptcy protection

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But wen squeeze!??!!

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Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

But wen squeeze!??!!

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BBBY put sellers on r/thetagang. Thoughts and prayers

https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/c...t=share_button

Bbby loss p0rnAttachment 456848

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Bbby loss p0rnAttachment 456848

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Insane, but not as insane as all the people who made millions buying bankrupt companies like Hertz during covid liquidity times.

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Bbby loss p0rnAttachment 456848

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Sigh. How someone is savvy enough to be able to bankroll that but dumb enough to make that play is beyond me

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Insane, but not as insane as all the people who made millions buying bankrupt companies like Hertz during covid liquidity times.

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HTZQ was unusual. Not often rental car values go up 350% over 2 years.

BBBYQ not so much. People are still buying SIVQ

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Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

Sigh. How someone is savvy enough to be able to bankroll that but dumb enough to make that play is beyond me

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Inheritance?

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Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

Sigh. How someone is savvy enough to be able to bankroll that but dumb enough to make that play is beyond me

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Odds are HIGH that it was crypto money. Plenty of dummies made a killing on BTC or Doge or whateverthefuckelse. Which is likely why they post it as lossporn instead of freaking the fuck out as a more appropriate response to losing millions of hard earned dollars overnight. Easy come, easy go.

FRC earnings were interesting. Massive loss of deposits, and new deposits are expensive and getting worse.
Still, after hours trading at <0.2x book, which seems low.

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Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

FRC earnings were interesting. Massive loss of deposits, and new deposits are expensive and getting worse.
Still, after hours trading at <0.2x book, which seems low.

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Suspect it will trade sideways. .it's not a zombie and it's not going bk and its also not going to M& A. That's fine as covered calls on it are mighty fine.

Funny that WSB calls and puts both lose though as IV will drop

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Originally Posted by LeeLau

Suspect it will trade sideways. .it's not a zombie and it's not going bk and its also not going to M& A. That's fine as covered calls on it are mighty fine.

Funny that WSB calls and puts both lose though as IV will drop

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Sideways if you rotate the screen 90 degrees.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Sideways if you rotate the screen 90 degrees.

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I had some $14 shares/lotto tickets I dumped in the high 11s. Then I checked again and it was sub10 and dropping.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Sideways if you rotate the screen 90 degrees.

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Yup. Whoops.

I suspect a lot of smallish banks are going to have their equity price ripped in months ahead. Declining deposits and limited loan growth opportunities.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

I suspect a lot of smallish banks are going to have their equity price ripped in months ahead. Declining deposits and limited loan growth opportunities.

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Deposits have slowly been declining over time. Larger banks have the scale to invest in the infrastructure and security/IT to accommodate a more digital customer, on average, going forward.

I do think loan growth opportunities will decrease…but I think the banks will limit their own books even moreso.

Commercial R/E and Construction & industrial loans- especially small to mid sized- are where smaller regional banks really separate themselves. Which may not be the worst thing for their equity (lending standards have obviously been a bit better than say 2006). Not to say they won’t get hit in a market shitstorm. But generally they’ve never been healthier going into said shitstorm.

MSFT up 8% after hours

MSFT going cray cray

Dips on NOC, LMT, GD, and PFE were nice opportunities. RTX is still too high.

I’m tempted to dump all my META/GOOGL/MSFT by end of day. I get that they’re STILL the future but the execution risk at these prices seems crazy high.

teh AI!!!!!!!!!!!!! You'll miss out! BUY BUY! ;)

I had a similar thought for my MSFT, AMZN and GOOG. I won't hold META and more than I'd hold PM.

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Originally Posted by summit

teh AI!!!!!!!!!!!!! You'll miss out! BUY BUY! ;)
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Doubling down as we speak

I’m still hiding out in HY, 2yr and 10+ tsy. Couple energy names plus palantir. Fuck it I’ll clip 6-7% while keeping long duration exposure.

If I was smart I’d roll the HY distr into deep OOM SP500 puts month after month

XOM continues it's slow and steady rise. SBUX, for whatever reason is also clawing back some gains recently. I had thought about pulling the trigger on META last November when it nosedived, but chickened out. Oh well., TSLA seems to be going the other way.

Kind of surprised how resilient the market has been.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

Kind of surprised how resilient the market has been.

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the disconnect between the "market" and how the average person goes about their life is massive eventually it will all catch up

there has been some back and forth in the Denver Post about electric car ownership
some well meaning upwardly mobile do gooder broke down the cost of electric car ownership today in the letters to the editor pointing out it actually costs less to own an electric car
were they correct on the numbers? Yes.
but the average dip shit is going to run an extension cord from their run down apartment building out to their electric car?
the average american who is living paycheck to paycheck buying junk they don't need on payment plans like Klarna and the likes of short term loans is going to buy a 20k plus electric car when they can barely afford payments at 14% interest on a 10k shit box?

the disconnect is real and massive

the upper middle class will always be buying 10 dollar coffees at starbucks while most do their grocery shopping at the 7-11
ever seen the sign that says "buy a frozen pizza on your ebt card and we will heat it up for free"

I read FRC was plagued with interest only loans.

More of that to come.

People are really downplaying the effect that this interest rate reset is going to have.alot of wealth has been destroyed in the last 12 months. Probably more than ever when you consider how badly treasuries have been marked against some. Probably why the Chinese are pissed.

JPM is becoming the very big fish in the banking pond.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

JPM is becoming the very big fish in the banking pond.

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Apple/Goldman collaboration is also an interesting development. Seems like the big banks will get bigger/stronger, while smaller regional banks will be struggling with their balance sheets when commercial real estate tanks. Consolidation cycle impending.

WTI still looking like $50. Another failed rally.

Started the process of changing brokerage firms. Currently around 68% cash, seems like a good place for the next 45 days.

Your cash is going to devalue if the US government defaults. The backup plan for a default is to print money to pay the debt.

I'm not saying that to pimp crypto or tell you to reallocate, just calling it out.

I honestly don't know of a safe asset in the event of a default. Maybe gold? Maybe BTC? Maybe Yuan?

Definitely not Yuan... maybe Gold

9mm and 5.56 ammo by the crate. Followed. By malboros and chicken in a biscuit.

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Originally Posted by 4matic

WTI still looking like $50. Another failed rally.

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Production cut coming. Again.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Your cash is going to devalue if the US government defaults. The backup plan for a default is to print money to pay the debt.

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And this is different from the last 15 years…how exactly?

S&P cut the US govt rating back in 2011. Treasuries skyrocketed.