Very true. Given his reversal on the Covid policy, however, maybe he's moderate whimsical, or at least not on the far end of the rational-whimsical spectrum.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
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Very true. Given his reversal on the Covid policy, however, maybe he's moderate whimsical, or at least not on the far end of the rational-whimsical spectrum.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
Nah, the big problem with Chinese companies is that they can only get so big before they get the smack down and the rules could change overnight.Quote:
Originally Posted by dschane
Not to mention the cyber security risks of the cloud business of baba and potential video game bans on Tencent.
They're both solid companies, but the regulatory environment they live in is more apt to hang them out to dry than a western one.
The Marissa Meyer method of force reduction at DIS. It won’t be the last. Four is the new five:
“Walt Disney CEO Bob Iger tells employees they must return to the office four days per week”
Still holding my EPD put and ARCC put, looks like I’ll get all the cash. My F put expired and I kept the $3.34, bought back the ET put making $13.34.
Have an order to sell a Jan 27, F put with a strike of $12 for $.17. EV seems to be ticking upwards, hoping it keeps going and I keep the premium. Or, I end up with 100 shares at $11.83, which I’m fine with. 4.7% yield with some growth possibilities sounds good to me.
I’m up pretty well since Christmas…. Thursday should be interesting, the CPI number should determine whether we have a bump or decline. I kinda think the Fed will be a bit hawkish and we still get a .50 bump, they’ve already showed that inflation control is the main jam.
We’ll see, finger crossed for a .25 basis and I can get away from being underwater on growth.
Still leaning 50bps but who knows now. Bottom is going to fall out of CPI, the buoy this morning was OER. Which takes into account all tenants. Zillow reporting big drop in new rental prices, so that will work through.
Food prices gas prices both down on headline. Shits going to get real this year.
Real as in Good or Bad?
Bad. But hey, it's fun to watch trainwrecks!
Yeah, no, no trainwrecks please. I really can't handle another bad hit.
BTC its whats for trainwrecks?:fmicon:Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
I'm up 80 grand in btc bruh.
You ever figure out that laptop from 1987? ( Hint: it's dated)
Gamblers who brag their winnings are assholes bruh....... :D
Huh?Quote:
You ever figure out that laptop from 1987? ( Hint: it's dated)
Ppl that talk shit on ski forums about their employer get fired bruh:)
I'm not bragging at all. You started it.
Quote:
I'm up 80 grand in btc bruh.
You hit me first.............................. Mom!Quote:
I'm not bragging at all. You started it.
Let's get back to the stock market not making.new ath's for the next decade.
There is no more middle class. Covid doubled ppls net worth who owns assets, and increase d rent, food etc on ppl who don't own assets. Almost overnight.
Billion used to be an astounding number to casually throw around. Now we are casually using trillions.
We are still the issuer of the best piece of paper on the planet, and the rest of the world compared to us looks like absolute shit.
Shit is kind of fucked though. I don't really care. The end.
Sounds great as long as we can address one thing.
The Stock Market and Crypto are not the economy and the hollowing out of the American working class didn't happen overnight.
Cya later.
I care.Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
We are living in the new gilded age.
Neither party is coming to our rescue.
I see things getting worse before they (hopefully) get better.
I hope you are wrong, I fear you are not.
Will try not to go polyass here, but just state some facts:Quote:
Originally Posted by Percy Rideout
During Covid the child tax credit was expanded and it reduced child poverty by something like 50%. Two D’s plus all R’s kept it from being extended.
First bill voted on by the new R house was to cut funding for IRS, which actually increases the deficit because it’s allows wealthy tax cheats to avoid being caught.
Pick which you like. But the parties are not the same.
I think wealth inequality is a major issue. Should be noted that it’s been decreasing for the past decade or so.
If you want doom and gloom, then some movement in the UNRATE is required.
It’s hard to have a prolonged recession with 3.5% unemployment.
This is the issue:Quote:
Originally Posted by hatchgreenchile
Attachment 442373
https://twitter.com/Neil_Irwin/status/1613529275298189312?s=20&t=vD6RDTVMtBN8_Ycm4Xuj_w
Inflation cooled in the second half of 2022, and it did it all on its own. The lag between Fed rate hikes and when the actual hit the economy is something like a year, so all those hikes they been doing are yet to have an effect, so when they finally hit they’re going to shut growth down. And the Fed is still talking about doing more hikes….
^^ yepppp
Real earnings last year for companies was like 0%. Actual was fueled by passing on inflation. Not happening this year. First thing to go when companies need to tighten up is labor. Look for unemployment back around 5% by year end. Wage inflation has been meandering down already. PMIs largely under 50.
Maturity wall for company debt is a bit of a thing in 2024, but not until 2025 is there a large % of market that will need to refinance or pay down debt. So there’s that.
I've been saying, to anyone that cared to listen, for months that they needed to stop the rate increases as the cooling was happening on multiple fronts already. Some of it was organic, and some of it was because the supply chains filled back up to the point of oversupply for some key channels and hiring stopped cold. Sure there are still lots of jobs being advertised because everyone wants to look strong in their respective industries but they're not actually hiring. Retail is crashing due to the reduction of cheap money and oversupply, shipping and transport has slowed, and warehouses are stuffed. Yes there have been mass layoffs but IMO that's just companies that grew too much, too quickly due to pandemiconomics. The media needs to shut up and stop the doom talk and the Fed needs to back off and watch for a little while. Of course this is just from a dumb layman's perspective but I have been paying attention for 40 years.
Oh, and the war got the whole world confoozled.
The diverse allocation I bought last year, in April, is now yielding 6.5% up from 5.2%. I’m currently down 2% including dividends on the whole thing. Not great but not dire. More comfortable with the mix now than 9 months ago. The income is great.
Biggest mistake was FMSDX right before it cratered. Although, the monthly income on it has basically doubled and I like the active management and portfolio mandate.
A sidewise to slightly higher stock market and moderating inflation is perfect for me. All of my active funds are increasing duration and therefore more durable income. Creep to maturity helps the short duration and capital return.
I set 2 put orders and 2 call orders last night. I wanted to be covered either way the market went after the CPI data. Set a Mar 17 put on O with a strike of $60 for .75, and a Jan 20 put on F with a strike of $12 for .05. Neither one of them filled, F was up for the 10th session, O was also up for the day.
Set an XOM call for Feb 17 with a strike of $125 for .50, and a MRO call for Feb 17 with a strike of $30 for .70. Both of these filled. I was down .50 on the XOM call and up 10.34 on the MRO by the end of the day. Even though I’ve wanted off of both of these stocks for a while if we get the pullback tomorrow that I think we will I’ll buy them both back if I can make $20-$30 (apiece) and still keep my shares.
The Fed let inflation build for 2 years before doing anything. They’ll crater the economy guaranteed. We were on the verge of recession when the pandemic started. I think we’ve kicked the can down the road long enough to require a significant correction. Unfortunately.Quote:
Originally Posted by gravitylover
The markets have been saying the same thing so you aren't exactly some lone voice in the wilderness. It takes at least a year for a rate hike to fully take effect throughout the economy and they just jacked rates through the roof during a 9 month period. Markets have been predicting that J-Pow is going to walk some of that back for a while now.Quote:
Originally Posted by gravitylover
I would venture to say that " jacked rates through the roof" is a bit of hyperbole. IMO rate were raised back to more realistic and sustainable levels after a decade or more of QE. Do those higher rates benefit the stock market? Who cares, that is not the point.
Bad choice of words I guess, my point was that the pace of the rate increases was very fast (the fastest ever last time I checked)Quote:
Originally Posted by Bunion 2020
…Paul Volcker wants a word…Quote:
Originally Posted by JaytaeMoney
Also, the rate of price increases (known as inflation) was also very fast.
If you look at the rate hikes over time horizon what the Fed did from March to December 22 is the fastest ever, by far. 425 basis points in 9 months. The cycle in 88-89 is a distant second and Volcker wasn't even the chair at that time, it was Greenspan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
How does the last decade+ compare to that metric in the converse. As in, lowest time at record low rates? I mean, we basically kept rates low for a really long time, kept fueling the fire with gunpowder, and everything just got overheated. Then the pandemic and "money printer go bbrrrrrrrrrr" didn't help thing either. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction and all that.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaytaeMoney
I'm not an economic historian, but I do know that the recent period from 2008 to present doesn't really have any historical comparison as far as how low the rates have been. In 2018-19 things were starting to look a little more normal (but still pretty low historically) and then the pandemic hit and the rest is history.
The only point I'm trying to make is that since the Fed hiked rates so fast in such a short period, it is very possible that they over-corrected. And that is not a niche view. Markets are betting on it, the WSJ referred to it as a game of chicken with the Fed a couple days ago.
So go back to Volcker. Is 900bps in 6 months a lot?Quote:
Originally Posted by JaytaeMoney
There hasn’t been a recession in 15 years and we are bitching about fed policy? Coming out of a pandemic? Man tough crowd.
Attachment 442529Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Fair enough I guess but that was a super volatile time. It was more like 900 in 2+ years. Not as hard to go up 900 in 6 months when you just went down like 700 in 3 but I retract my previous statement.
Yeah, I was aware that rates had risen drastically during that time to quell inflation, but had never looked at a chart and seen the crazy swings. Not sure what they were thinking.Quote:
Originally Posted by JaytaeMoney
It is wild, it looks like they dropped them nearly 7% in one meeting.
Sorry for the thread drift, I will stop posting and let the stock talk resume.
Rate of change is the metric to measure things like inflation and rate hikes. The rate of change in this Fed cycle is probably far greater than the Volker cycle.
As for inflation. In the 70’s rate of change inflation when gasoline went from .25c to $2.00 and that trickled into every corner of the economy from record albums to soybeans.
That would be like gasoline going to $16 a gallon in todays prices.
If nothing else, over the next 12 months, we'll get some insight into who is in control of the rates, the Fed or the bond market.