Good to see the dollar getting hit the day before a holiday and a long weekend. It enforces the trend lower. Same with crude oil.
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Good to see the dollar getting hit the day before a holiday and a long weekend. It enforces the trend lower. Same with crude oil.
The dollar is a bit weaker bouncing around a four month low. Another momentum move takes DXY to 100 which is a long term pivot. That’s bullish
For stocks and bonds.
Anyone have experience with something called "Supplemental Benefit Group Retirement Plan" as part of the 401k plan? Wife started new job and they have an option to exceed the annual personal contribution limit by taking a fixed amount of pay and putting it in the 401k. They decide the amount and it goes up a little each year. Can not ever opt out and unlikely to have options to join later. She only works 50%, so amount is about 10% of pay, significant hit but seems like a good opportunity. I suppose she could reduce elective contribution by that amount and after seeing we are still on track for other goals(and not living on rice and beans), go back to maxing yearly elective contribution.
10y note back to the June high.
My account has been mostly sideways the last month or so, little bit of a bump from J Powell’s comments yesterday.
Hoping those beaten down tech/growth stuff I’ve bought in the last month or so come to fruition. AMD has been one of my winners, wish I’d bought more than 20 shares at $58.12. I hope Summit bought a fair amount of RIO, my 14 shares bought when he recommended them have done well.
I’m up to $403.29/month in dividends now. Set an order to sell a put on O for Jan 20 @$57.50 for .55, if filled that should bump me up to $429/month. If not, I’ll keep the $55.
Glad the RIO is working! I bought a whole bunch of it in the 50s. I grabbed a small amount of GOOG and AMZN around 90, thank you on that.
Whoever suggested FLNG a ways back, thank you, that's been doing great.
I wish my INTC wasn't doing so badly... but at least I didn't dump it in the mid 20s.
10y and DXY both closed at 6 month lows and on the lows of the week.
Well done BobMc. Keep those dividends rolling. $5k a year now!
DJIA is unch yoy. Down 5% ytd. Could easily close plus on the year.
20 month low in gasoline futures.
Up we go! I'm thinking S&P low for year was in Oct. Seeing lots of mountain bike stuff on sale, so obviously inflation is done :-)
Do you like MRO now?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
It’s not the kind of stock I buy and don’t have an opinion. I liked oil stocks in general when crude was $30 because with dividends you got all your money back in less than years.Quote:
Originally Posted by boltonoutlaw
Quarterly expiration this week
NotedQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
MRO will get bought. I’m still longQuote:
Originally Posted by boltonoutlaw
MRO was one of the first stocks I bought when I started investing in April 2020. I’d bought 100 shares of CWH at $7.22 and sold them for $13.30 three weeks later. Bought 100 shares of MRO at $5.60 with the profit, bought 22 more shares over the next couple months and then stopped buying other than DRIP.
I wish I’d bought more while crude was still struggling. I’ve made $125.70 selling calls and puts on my shares the last couple years. The last time I tried to buy more was last July when I sold a put with a strike of $22, I took the easy way out and made $40 without being assigned.
If it gets to $30 again I plan on selling another call on it. I still want out of it to move the money into something with more yield.
Attachment 438188
The sector is highly susceptible to the cyclical nature of the price of oil, if you want to invest in E&P companies you probably want to do a lot of reading on sites like oilprice.com. Different companies have different strategies on where to invest, MRO is big in Texas, and internationally in Equatorial Guinea. It all boils down to the cost per barrel, some places obviously are better than others. Personally if I was looking into a E&P company right now I’d side with XOM or CVX, both offer a better yield and better propects.
The main reason I want out of MRO is that I want to take some profits on an equity I’m long and paying no taxes on capital gains and then move that money into a midstream to enhance dividend/distribution income.
Thanks for this discussion. I am divested from fossil fuels IRL for individual stocks but of course they are in the mutuals I still own. For my fictional portfolio I think MRO is a buy
Bmc. You don’t need midstream for income anymore. Just something to think about.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
Picked up some Eni a while back and it’s been nice. Currently a 6+% dividend plus as one of the original investors they are (or were) the largest owner of commonwealth fusion.
Top of the bracket again.
Sorry, i don't understand what you're sayingQuote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
He's saying if you sell your Gazprom you can buy other income yielding investments that don't carry the same downside risks. Because interest rates have gone up.Quote:
Originally Posted by rod9301
2yn yield getting smashed. Doesn’t believe Fed.
Or, perhaps they do believe the Fed and the economy gonna get choked to submission.
thisQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I gave my year end 2023 guesstimates on weds…fed funds 3.5, IG spreads 168, 2-10 -110.
Going to bottom of bracket again
I know, I’ve branched out into reits, materials and even cigarettes.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Here’s what I’m currently holding.
Attachment 438600
I feel a lot worse than originally about a couple of those, but most are pretty safe dividends/distributions. I’d be genuinely interested in any others you’d suggest.
Today was a market down day I’ve saved cash for, I picked up two shares of AMZN at $87 and two shares of AAPL at $134. Had another order to try to steal GOOGl at $83 but it didn’t even come close.
I sold puts on ET and EPD today…. A weekly on ET with a strike of $11.50 on Dec 23 for .18 and a Jan 20 put on EPD with a strike of $22 for .15. Neither are going to make me rich, but I think it’s more about the incremental game. I’d be happy to be assigned on either play, 100 shares of EPD at $21.85, count me in!
I’m going to keep storing a bit of cash using it to sell cash secured positions and buying stuff on any downturns. Wish me luck, heh.
Here is mine.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
2yr above 7% and the rest also higher than they are today by a bunch by this time next year..
Attachment 439130
Grabbed 4 shares of AAPL at $133, 2 shares of AMZN at $86 and then 2 more shares of AMZN at $85. Seen some bearish takes of AMZN going to the low 70’s, will buy all the way down. Every time they go down another dollar I’ll be a buyer. Same with AAPL and GOOGL. I’m up to 42 shares of GOOGL, 30.133 shares of AAPL, and 26 shares of AMZN.
Bought back my ET put for .02, under .05 I don’t pay any transaction fees with TDA. Still riding my EPD put, I’ll let that either be assigned or get the whole $14.34. Sold a Jul 23 MRO call with a strike of $25 for $589.33 (after fees) at opener this morning, bought it back for $557.66 thirty minutes later. I dig making $31.67 as I drive to work. Aka, several free lunches.
Hadn’t looked at any of Aunt Cathie’s funds in a while, perused them today, holy shit, she’s been rekt.
I bought TSLA today right when it hit $136 It immediately went up 2% and of course back down a bit, but I think this could be a great short term gain.
When Bezos, Cook, and Pichai start acting like fools I’ll probably stop buying their company’s stock. There is no way I’d touch that TSLA shit right now. AMZN, AAPL, and GOOGL are down because of economic and market conditions. TSLA is going down because the dude in charge seems fixated on political shit rather than business and is being exposed as not real good at running a social media site.
Those 4 companies have different revenue drivers, growth trajectories, all that. Different places in terms of maturities. But right now aside from fundamental differences and how the economy/market impacts those…higher rates crush growth companies, especially high growth companies. The rate future growth/cash is discounted at is higher.
I maybe wouldn’t touch Tesla because I think the threat from other car companies in EV land is very very real.
I’ve been buying PSNY and F because of this very reason. I find it hard to believe Tesla will continue to dominate the EV market. The established players in the automotive industry haven’t been there for a hundred years because they lack the ability to innovate. They may move more slowly than Tesla but they will catch up and be able to scale up more quickly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Tesla is now giving incentives to take delivery on cars by year end. $7500 discount. Not a great sign when your share price assumes X growth rate aside from any discount rate/interest rate impact on the valuation.
You sure that has 0 to do with the $7500 EV rebate that starts Jan 1 2023?Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
Tesla has twice the P/E as Apple. The only scenario where that makes sense is if self driving capabilities are fully realized. I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon. For what it's worth, Tesla is finally generating a lot of free crash flow so it's a little ironic the stock is falling now instead of anytime in the past.
Yep, separate. Tesla is doing this- not a tax credit or anything this year or next.Quote:
Originally Posted by nickwm21
Apples and oranges. The higher a company’s revenue growth rate, the less earnings or value-centric valuation methods matter.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
Apple is huge and growing sub-10% pa (excluding 2020/2021 reporting). Sweet. Nice company. Strong, margins in the upper 30s to 41%. Stable.
Tesla is growing revenue over 50% pa. Lower margins but that’s the business they’re in, still in the mid 20%s. It’s not a grocery store.
So P/E may be a bit more suitable for apple and not really for Tesla. Someday maybe Tesla will turn all the cash they are producing into earnings (maybe) but for now they are using it to drive growth. And their earnings are growing too. By the time someone solely using a simple P/E multiple finds Tesla attractive, it’s not growing nearly as fast and the hyper growth trajectory has slowed.
For Tesla things like market share, total addressable market, margin opportunity, revenue growth are better indicators than anything putting earnings in the denominator. Earnings don’t matter as much for companies growing 50+% yoy.
Sure, Tesla looks much more like a growth stock than Apple but trees don't grow to the sky forever so the question is whether the trend will continue. The posts above seem to indicate that might not be the case. Buying stocks at high double-digit revenue multiples in this environment is risky business.
Yeah I wouldn’t buy Tesla. I don’t know a ton about it and wouldn’t make a bet either way. But it has 0 to do with P/E comparisons (it has to do with concerns over their market share).
When the growth starts to slow- it doesn’t grow to the sky forever, the P/E will come down and earnings may actually look good. That’s when a strict P/E investor would hop in. Because it’s cheap. That’s where apple is.
The main point with the P/E comparison is to illustrate that in spite of the fall in price, -60% YTD, Tesla stock is still expensive. Even at the current price its valuation is still a growth proposition. Yes, it's a growth stock, but there's still room for a big haircut. If the growth story cools and Tesla stock is valued more on fundamentals like its rivals, shares would be closer to $20.