PPI showed final goods +0.6% and services -0.1%. MSM focusing on the 0.2% number rather than digging deeper. 8.0% YOY and still not good.
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PPI showed final goods +0.6% and services -0.1%. MSM focusing on the 0.2% number rather than digging deeper. 8.0% YOY and still not good.
Yes! Picked up 100 @ $86.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
Got rid of a bunch of bumbling crap.
(Airline stuff mostly, thought it would take off post pandemic)
Ba-dump, sizzQuote:
Originally Posted by wkd-rdr
Some truth but not how the calculation works. For example, Health care is calculated once a year and since it was measured down yoy it becomes a -.5 drag every month for a year. The way it’s going there a a decent chance for negative surprise in the headline numbersQuote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Too bad nobody needs to ship more inventory into the country now.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Notice how nicely the asset markets turned when king dollar decided to fall out of bed?
1. International War #3 continues to cause inflationary pressure that Central Banks cannot fix. Also sends much more money running to USD.
2. King Dollar wakes up, picks himself off the floor, and trounces EM currencies into dust.
3. The long end of the bond curve is dead, no liquidity, nobody stupid enough at the institutional level to buy more so they will try hard to make you be the buyer.
Stocks have more pain ahead and may feel like a crash but not 50%.
Bonds are bouncing but should be avoided.
Not sure why the market loves the reported drop in the lying inflation rate. It is much higher than what is reported anyways.
Looking forward to $1 trillion + dollar interest payments and clueless politicians trying to put Humpty back on the wall.
WTI Crude oil chart looks like $50.
bullish, but it is an expiration week.
“Yesterday's equity put/call ratio was literally off the charts at 1.46. That's higher than the Covid Crash”
word in the resort towns is that people are putting projects on hold and consulting their financial advisors but what do contractors know
the problem is they get their financial advice market rebounds and they all say go on their projects at the same time wonder why it costs so much and why its moving so slow some of these "advisors" don't know much else than what is taught in business school
I too grabbed some AMZN bags at low 90s. Some TSLA at 200 but effing Elon. Also some MSFT at 230Quote:
Originally Posted by wkd-rdr
So then what should they do, Einstein? You’ve got it figured out.Quote:
Originally Posted by fastfred
Ytd low in WTI Crude.
Where do you find this chart?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
spend money like a wine drunk mommy shopping onlineQuote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Anywhere. Just my interpretation of the long term chart. There is some support around $75 from 2019. It’s breaking down below a well tested low and previous high around $80.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
Sounds like Biden should be loading up on futures to refill the SPR.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I don’t think putting a floor on price was a wise idea. If Ukraine resolves prices will collapse.
Future supply chain stress nonexistent per November @KansasCityFed Index … outlook for supplier delivery times has crashed to lowest on record
How so? Russian oil is still being sold in the global market. Will their production increase?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
China will reopen at some point as well will they not? I think they've been a couple million barrels per day below their baseline. Plus OPEC is unable to meet their targets.
WTI price has pivoted around $50 for a couple decades. It wasn’t that long ago you couldn’t give it away.
Those points you made are not new. US and China trending toward more EV use. Less consumption. Random data points are just that.
Sure, but it sounds like you're saying that global demand has peaked? Not seeing that assertion anywhere else. Most forecasts I've read still have world demand increasing as more of the worlds poor move towards middle income. India is another big one.
EVs are great, but still seems like we need to front-load a ton of oil to get there. Mining trucks all run on diesel for example. If you're that certain of a price collapse do you have a big bet set up for that direction? What's your forecast for global demand in 2025 for example and why? With data.
That’s the thing about chart analysis. It’s not science. My view of the chart says $50
Here’s some data points though:
Shipping rates collapsed. Ships sitting idle. Major source of diesel demand
FedEx and ups grounded planes. More diesel.
I suppose the hard deadline on sanctions next month could offer some support.
If future demand is a known known, why is price near a 52 week low? Down almost 50% from its high. What’s another $25 to $50?
Especially after a 10% correction in DXY. If the dollar strengthens again, more pressure on prices
You must have missed the chart analysis I did for Bitcoin.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
One more point..
Price is lower than when OPEC cut production. All the political hand wringing was just that.
Charts are a tool. A way of measuring risk reward and entry points.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
I would call the risk/reward ratio on WTI about even so it would be a weak conviction short
Fed should use QT to tighten policy from here. It’s more important to roll off the balance sheet. If they weaken demand too much they won’t be able to sell bonds. That said, Fed overtightening is related to that. Advertising for buyers.
Because emotion drives oil prices as much as actual supply/demand?Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
That’s what a chart potentially sorts out. Price is truth.Quote:
Originally Posted by yeahman
Attachment 434484Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
What do you want? A medal?
Wait...Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
So line go down??
:cussing:
:D
Oil price has gone in every recession. So if you believe there's a recession coming, then you should believe oil will go down.
Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
Sure, I’ll take one if you’re offering.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Oil prices are going down in large part because commodity shortages are always followed by a glut. See also lithium and lithium-ion batteries, for example. There have been lots of famous bets won using this this principle over the years made at time when commodity prices were high.
The most important markets when it comes to inflation are labor markets. It's the price -> wage -> price spiral that matters. With that in mind, it will be a Fed win if they manage to get inflation down to bellow 4% in the next year or so.
There are obviously a range of possibilities/probabilities and one of those, the one I think most likely at the moment, is an end to letting inflation run and an end to historically low interest rates.
1. I bet $37 core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse
2. It won’t be a fed win if it throws growth negative, employment close to 5% (which is really higher since participation is still kinda low), and what we would consider a moderate to significant recession.
Ok, we both acknowledge the Fed can lower inflation by causing a recession and higher unemployment. So the bet is whether the Fed can lower inflation and at the same time manage a 'soft landing' by this time next year.
I'll take the bet if you make it 12-mo CPI and to be fair it's a push if core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023. So I win if both core and CPI are greater than 3%, you win if both are below 3%, and it's a push if only one or the other is under 3%.
Not really much risk on that bet since CPI using current rent prices instead of the lagged prices used in official CPI already shows inflation under 3%:Quote:
Originally Posted by Brock Landers
Attachment 434585
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/stat...NQR_Apz8JU8Iqg
Yeah, that's a good sign but it remains to be seen whether lower rents are a trend or seasonal. TBH this isn't a bet I'd mind losing. And if on the other hand I'm right then TIPS are currently underpriced. It's also rare historically for inflation to come down really fast so if it happens this time it would be an outlier.
I don’t know anything about the measure he’s using, but I assume it’s seasonally adjusted since he mentioned previously that he wasn’t using Appartment List because it wasn’t seasonally adjusted.Quote:
Originally Posted by MultiVerse