Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by Irishexit

Yikes. No bueno.

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Why is that? How do you think portfolio managers get in, out and hedge positions, let’s say you have $100k worth of stock allocated and it needs to go through a transfer out of the market for one week. You could buy an equal amount of derivative to hold until the money is transferred. If your correlated to the derivative it’s a neutral trade. It really is the perfect scenario for weekly options but a futures contract is always cheaper because there’s no time premium.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Get out now

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A big layoff at AMZN would be very bullish for the stock. Corporate margins are a big source of inflation. If they cut costs with higher prices and margins that’s positive.

As Meta moves to shrink its office footprint, the Facebook parent is backing out of a plan to fill a new building in downtown Austin.

The tech giant plans to sublease rather than occupy the 589,000 square feet it leased

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Originally Posted by 4matic

Why is that? How do you think portfolio managers get in, out and hedge positions, let’s say you have $100k worth of stock allocated and it needs to go through a transfer out of the market for one week. You could buy an equal amount of derivative to hold until the money is transferred. If your correlated to the derivative it’s a neutral trade. It really is the perfect scenario for weekly options but a futures contract is always cheaper because there’s no time premium.

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I get the concept and allocate to those types of managers. 100% can be effective if you have the experience and info advantage.

But to give that as advice for a retail strategy, you are basically giving someone a dull sword and sending them into the colosseum to get slaughtered.

Threw a few more darts today. Bought two more GOOGL at $84, going to keep going with this if it continues down further tomorrow. I now have 42 shares with a cost basis of $102.63. Set an order to buy two of AMZN at $89, missed it by .02. The order is GTC and hopefully it fills tomorrow.

In the tradition of buying stuff I’m down on I picked up another 100 warrants of PSNY, because, why the hell not? (They were trading for .63 this morning.) My YOLO trade for the day. I still believe in the theory of the major auto manufacturers catching up and leaving Elon behind at some point. I’ve started grabbing a few shares of F in that stream of thinking, the Volvo/Polestar trade seems pretty reasonable.

I keep looking at META, tremendous upside but I just can’t get past the total Zuck control. If Reality Labs pays off it could be big, if not it could/will suck off a lot of cash. I’m always looking to buy AAPL, they went down a bit today and then again after hours. I’m hoping to pick up a few shares on the cheaper if it continues to swoon tomorrow morning.

The part of me that thinks recession is coming on is kinda ok with it. It will be the time to load up every penny into investments while they are cheap. Ride that shit out and reap the rewards on the other side. If a recession doesn’t come along, be happy with the money you’ve set aside.

Regardless, keep looking for your future.

I think GOOG, AMZN, and AAPL will take more share of ad dollars. Social getting too risky.

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Originally Posted by BobMc

Threw a few more darts today. Bought two more GOOGL at $84, going to keep going with this if it continues down further tomorrow. I now have 42 shares with a cost basis of $102.63. Set an order to buy two of AMZN at $89, missed it by .02. The order is GTC and hopefully it fills tomorrow.

In the tradition of buying stuff I’m down on I picked up another 100 warrants of PSNY, because, why the hell not? (They were trading for .63 this morning.) My YOLO trade for the day. I still believe in the theory of the major auto manufacturers catching up and leaving Elon behind at some point. I’ve started grabbing a few shares of F in that stream of thinking, the Volvo/Polestar trade seems pretty reasonable.

I keep looking at META, tremendous upside but I just can’t get past the total Zuck control. If Reality Labs pays off it could be big, if not it could/will suck off a lot of cash. I’m always looking to buy AAPL, they went down a bit today and then again after hours. I’m hoping to pick up a few shares on the cheaper if it continues to swoon tomorrow morning.

The part of me that thinks recession is coming on is kinda ok with it. It will be the time to load up every penny into investments while they are cheap. Ride that shit out and reap the rewards on the other side. If a recession doesn’t come along, be happy with the money you’ve set aside.

Regardless, keep looking for your future.

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I think you are right on recession, usually we are in one before we realize we are in one. Markets tend to realize that before investors do, on the entry and exit. Those sitting on the sideline waiting for the deemed entry point are going to miss.

I do think it will be a shallow recession, part of why the fed is raising so fast.

Id we rather raise above what’s needed so there is the the bandwidth to cut if economics soften. Markets will react more favorably to that versus the Fed prematurely becoming more dovish. We need to build back up the quiver of arrows.

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Originally Posted by Irishexit

I get the concept and allocate to those types of managers. 100% can be effective if you have the experience and info advantage.

But to give that as advice for a retail strategy, you are basically giving someone a dull sword and sending them into the colosseum to get slaughtered.

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Lol. It is TGR though so all good conversation. I have other IRA's fully invested so really I'm hedged enough. Big picture I am just taking a less aggressive position for a few days. It is my head spinning on this stuff that bothers me.

And yes, the sharks would eat me. I'm a shoot, shovel, and forget investor.

Wednesday was a nail biter though.

Once I get the stupid check I can deposit electronically through the app. So there is that.

Big move in the dollar. Now is a good time for sovereigns to step on it. Could be a sign of a rate too too. Dollar always signals first.

My check came today UPS 3 day because I guess that is cheaper then next day or even 2 day and let them play with my somewhat substantial sum of money (non dentist scale) for a few days. Sitting outside on my porch when I came home from work. Package soaked through. Check partially soaked. USPS priority would have made it faster and been in my locked mailbox.

Anyway, still legible, deposited via mobil. Thanks maggots for not stealing my check on my tip off.

John Hancock can now go ahead and fuck off.

Sent from my SM-G991U1 using Tapatalk

I’m guessing close to 10k:

Facebook parent Meta could begin large-scale layoffs as soon as Wednesday, according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.

The layoffs are expected to impact thousands of employees, the report said, and the move would mark the first major headcount reduction in Meta’s history. At the end of September, the company reported that it had more than 87,000 employees.

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Originally Posted by uglymoney

My check came today... deposited via mobil.

John Hancock can now go ahead and fuck off.

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haha

Instagram had 13 employees when Facebook bought them for a billion. It is still inherently the same product today.

Which begs the question, what the fuck exactly do 86,987 other people do at Meta?

I swear that entire Meta organization could probably get by with fewer than 1000 employees and no one would notice a difference in terms of the actual product. They literally just buy competitors anyway and haven't developed anything on their own for well over 15 years.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

Instagram had 13 employees when Facebook bought them for a billion. It is still inherently the same product today.

Which begs the question, what the fuck exactly do 86,987 other people do at Meta?

I swear that entire Meta organization could probably get by with fewer than 1000 employees and no one would notice a difference in terms of the actual product. They literally just buy competitors anyway and haven't developed anything on their own for well over 15 years.

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you can’t be this fucking stupid. Instagram had $0 revenue at acquisition. That’s right, fucking nothing. A bunch of those new people sell ads, support ads, and support the system that makes Facebook money. Lots of money.

Yes, Facebook could get by with nobody if it just fed you brain rotting political rants and gender reveal pictures. But that’s not the product, the product is ads they sell to people

Sure bro, Meta needs 87000 people to sell ads.

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Originally Posted by AdironRider

Sure bro, Meta needs 87000 people to sell ads.

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it needs them to sell ads, support selling ads, develop the next thing that will sell ads, and keep that talent from developing the next thing that will sell ads that isn’t meta

Anyways, invest away partisan brainworms your counterparts awaits!

I grabbed two shares of AMZN at $89, and two more AAPL at $135 on Friday. I have orders set to grab more tomorrow if prices drop, along with a GOOGL order for two @ $80. I’m going to keep buying as long as prices drop. I’m only grabbing two at a time in case the bottom isn’t in, I can keep this up for a long way down.

Once tech/growth stops falling I’ll probably swing back to high yield again. My dividends/month has stalled at $397 for a bit as I’ve been buying growth plays that don’t pay. Looking forward to the next couple weeks as it’s midstream distributions time, let the shares DRIP in!

15k repos a month. Caravana getting crushed again. Used car prices biggest drop since 2008.

https://twitter.com/InfinitusCap/sta...bJeltlTJN80IRA

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Originally Posted by 4matic

15k repos a month. Caravana getting crushed again. Used car prices biggest drop since 2008.

https://twitter.com/InfinitusCap/sta...bJeltlTJN80IRA

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Better link on index pricing is here: https://publish.manheim.com/content/...e-index.html#/

cranking down pretty fast.

yay!

Coming down fast, but still a ways to go to get back to normal:

Attachment 432747

Rates up dollar down. Trend change.

Finally over for GME?

Transitory? Currency always leads

CPI under expectations, duration doing well, growth equities helped by this, and spreads tighter. Lower CPI (than consensus expectation) increases the chances the fed starts to pivot. Maybe still 50 in dec. maybe 25. But less pressure on them to continue such hawkishness. And that means less weight pushing the economy into a hard(er) landing. All at the margin obviously.

10y down 24bps already. Get in now if you haven’t already.

Treasury closed till Monday. Currency and equity free to run.

Big move DXY

AMZN talking more cost cutting. They have extremely high turnover so no big layoffs till after new year.

DJIA back to July 2021 levels.

Worth noting that we had 7.7% inflation in Oct 2022 on top of 6.2% in Oct 2021, meaning prices are more than 14% higher than two years ago.

The market seems to be pricing in a major fed pivot. We'll see....

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Worth noting that we had 7.7% inflation in Oct 2022 on top of 6.2% in Oct 2021, meaning prices are more than 14% higher than two years ago.

The market seems to be pricing in a major fed pivot. We'll see....

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Also worth noting that the core CPI was quite a bit less than forecast.

That means higher revenue for companies too. Plus, instead of a drag, currency becomes a tail wind

By December of next year, Morgan Stanley sees:

1. Annual #CPI BELOW Fed 2% target
2. Outright deflation in core goods
3. FOMC beginning rate cuts

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Lower CPI (than consensus expectation) increases the chances the fed starts to pivot. Maybe still 50 in dec. maybe 25. But less pressure on them to continue such hawkishness.

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Worth noting that we had 7.7% inflation in Oct 2022 on top of 6.2% in Oct 2021,

The market seems to be pricing in a major fed pivot. We'll see....

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Some remarks by Fed. Gov. Christopher Waller yesterday.

“The market seems to have gotten way out in front over this one CPI report. Everybody should just take a deep breath, calm down. We’ve got a ways to go ” Waller said. ...........

“We’re going to see a continued run of this kind of behavior and inflation slowly starting to come down, before we really start thinking about taking our foot off the brakes here,” Waller said.
“We’ve got a long, long way to go to get inflation down. Rates are going keep going up and they are going to stay high for awhile until we see this inflation get down closer to our target,” he added.The Fed is focused on how high rates need to get to bring inflation down, and that will depend solely on inflation, he said.Waller said “the worst thing” the Fed could do was stop raising rates only to have inflation explode.The 7.7% inflation rate seen in October “is enormous,” he added.The Fed signaled at its last meeting earlier this month that it might slow down the pace of its rate hikes in coming meetings.The central bank has boosted rates by almost 400 basis points since March, including four straight 0.75-percentage-point hikes that had been almost unheard of prior to this year.“We’re looking at moving in paces of potentially 50 [basis points] at the next meeting or the next meeting after that,” Waller said.

Don't fight the Fed. Slowing, yes, but not done yet. We'll see.

Edit:

At the same time, Powell said the Fed was likely to raise rates above the 4.5%-4.75% terminal rate that they had previously expected.

Exactly, Fed rhetoric was too soft and now it’s too hard. They’ll talk tough until they don’t.

AMZN white color layoffs 10k. Big blue color coming soon. With FDX furloughing AMZN will have leverage to outsource shipping again

#2 at Fed this morning

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard at Bloomberg today:

"I think it will probably be appropriate, soon, to move to a slower pace of increases. But I think what's really important to emphasize is we’ve done a lot, but we have additional work to do."

I think folks should consider statements from the Fed like the one above as quite possibly setting the stage for financial repression, and not an indication things are slowly returning to 'normal' because it is almost certainly the case 2% average inflation targeting is already dead.

Transitory?

DXY down 7% in 10 days

Ocean container rates from China to US West Coast are now over 20% lower than this time vs. 2018.

After a few weeks of holding study in the $2500+/- range for the month of October and the first part of November, we are sliding hard again.

so lets look at this in basic terms

housing prices are still holding high a 5% reduction in price isn't anything to get excited about
my rates are going up 10% next year possibly higher need to sit down with the advisor to pin that number
corporate profits are up if your actually producing goods and services
over valued tech is taking it in the nuts because people finally realizing they provide nothing but being a middle man taking a huge chunk of change for create a sector that is not really needed and stealing your personal well being
inflation will continue up and up even though all the big firms tell us it will stabilize soon, I call bullshit, because we need profit on health care wall street needs profit and the rich need more money the squeeze is on and they are squeezing until it bursts

we allow the two largest grocery chains to merge so long competition hello price fixing

all these economists are trying to figure it out but they have their nose buried so deep in their own ass and wallet that they have no idea whats going on but they have pretty charts and graphs to explain it all

February will be a come to jesus moment

people can only be squeezed so much