Is the stock market going to tank?

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Originally Posted by Kevo

Crazy up and down moves today. Huge volatility.

Re: financial advisors. Flat fee fiduciary is the absolute gold standard if you can find it.

Lots of people claim to be fiduciaries without being willing to sign a fiduciary contract. My parents were swindled by a Raymond James CFP who had them in high expense ratio bullshit and had a 50 basis point per year "advising fee" on top of the high expense ratios.

I found them a flat fee fiduciary CFP/CFA/RICP Stanford MBA and their total yearly fees inclusive of expense rarios are about 1/3 of what my parents were paying to the RJ hack.

My parents are saving tens of thousands per year and their fiduciary is incredibly valuable. He and his team earn every penny of their flat fee ensuring everything is tax advantaged, doing asset allocation and setting up a detailed budget for retirement income.

It's not rocket science but my parents need a go to "person" so it's worth paying for them.

RJ hack told my parents she was a fiduciary but wouldn't sign paperwork saying so. I wanted to strangle her.

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thank you

Markets down down

Thank you for the timely update

lol

Predicting future returns on the current trailing real rate is stupid

I'm waiting for the dead cat to stop bouncing.

Attachment 427108

As much would have it I haven't been able to put anything into retirement this year due to a job switch. Planning on doing a bulk purchase at the end of the year. Small difference in the grand scheme but hey, if that dead cat stops bouncing by the end of the year, it could be a happy accident.

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Originally Posted by jackstraw

How many of you guys have gone to cash? Is that a wise thing to do if you're a passive investor?

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Need to define what you mean by a passive investor. Going to cash is an active move.

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Originally Posted by dunfree

Predicting future returns on the current trailing real rate is stupid

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Fact

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Need to define what you mean by a passive investor. Going to cash is an active move.

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“Sell the dip”!

No bid for rates tonight. Getting ugly

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Originally Posted by 4matic

No bid for rates tonight. Getting ugly

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All that matters is key rate. Front end is a mess, but 10 and out is stable if not up 20s and 30s

Dollar way up. Makes sense.

My thoughts? Fed is going to push against inflation even if it starts hitting jobs numbers (which it hasn’t shown yet). They have communicated this pretty clearly since august cpi. Late this year into next year base values are going to kick inflation lower anyway. So the ineffective rate hikes won’t do anything anyway. But the slowdown in growth will spread (home builders rolled over months ago) and the cost of mtg or rents will hit consumers. Which may hit other businesses.

Id look for another 15% melt down in broad equity mkt over the next year. Energy will continue to do fine. Growth- especially high valuation growth will get whacked.

4% 2 year note? Jesus. High yield approaching 10% without an expectation for defaults (maturity wall doesn’t really hit until 2025). Yes please.

I’m long energy stocks (eog Dvn OXY) indexed high yield and short term high yield, and 20+ year us govt bonds. A couple healthcare names sprinkled (abbv, isrg). And pltr. Going down w that ship.

Fed solves inflation: long end comes down. Fed pushes us into recession: long end comes down. Russia keeps escalating: long end comes down. Probably.

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Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Need to define what you mean by a passive investor. Going to cash is an active move.

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Umm, how about a moronic investor that doesn't really know what the f he's doing, but generally speaking, does a "set it and forget it" until some reason like the yield curve going inverted and says to himself, maybe I should change something? I've been Robo guy for years and just set a risk tolerance number and let it go. I'm am low risk at the moment, but it's all dropping like a rock. Cash is a 2% return and probably rising? Granted, I'd get a tax hit selling off, but I'm ok with that...I think.

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Originally Posted by jackstraw

Umm, how about a moronic investor that doesn't really know what the f he's doing, but generally speaking, does a "set it and forget it" until some reason like the yield curve going inverted and says to himself, maybe I should change something? I've been Robo guy for years and just set a risk tolerance number and let it go. I'm am low risk at the moment, but it's all dropping like a rock. Cash is a 2% return and probably rising? Granted, I'd get a tax hit selling off, but I'm ok with that...I think.

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Market timing is kinda like card counting. If you can’t do it perfectly, you’re doing yourself a disservice.
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But it makes sense to have less exposure when the market is expensive, like now, and more when it's cheap, like dox 3000

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https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-...711&fit=bounds

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Originally Posted by Mazderati

https://imageio.forbes.com/specials-...711&fit=bounds

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I remember being in a graduate level corporate finance class in 1996 and the professor was totally dumbfounded at how much more global demand, thanks to 24/7 internet transaction access instead of just phones, was driving the markets up and up and up... He said up until then what mattered most was assets and income/revenue streams. Market values to asset values was way more similar back then. Now asset value is pretty worthless in determining market capitalization values..

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Originally Posted by rod9301

But it makes sense to have less exposure when the market is expensive, like now, and more when it's cheap, like dox 3000

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A lot of the biggest gain days happen during bear markets/downward trends

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Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

I remember being in a graduate level corporate finance class in 1996 and the professor was totally dumbfounded at how much more global demand, thanks to 24/7 internet transaction access instead of just phones, was driving the markets up and up and up... He said up until then what mattered most was assets and income/revenue streams. Market values to asset values was way more similar back then. Now asset value is pretty worthless in determining market capitalization values..

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Income streams still matter. Asset value to market value doesn’t make sense in a whole lot of industries because the assets that are generating the value (eg people/brands) aren’t on the balance sheet.

Listening to Powell briefly the other day it was interesting to hear him say " we can't let people become adjusted to this inflation in their thoughts and behaviors.

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Originally Posted by JimmyCarter

A lot of the biggest gain days happen during bear markets/downward trends

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Sure, but if the trend is down, it doesn't matter

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I cashed out all my positions and split them amongst APE, AMC, and APRN…

J/K

I wish my timing was better and I had more cash, but, I’m throwing what I have at depressed equities I primarily already own. Picked up 10 shares of F, and then 10 shares of ARCC, both were bolstering my already owned shares to the downside.

I like F to kick the shit out of the EV market, I’ve been torn on which legacy manufacturer to invest. I can’t do TSLA, I think the CEO is too toxic to further the company. Ford seems to be wholeheartedly into this sector and is out ahead of everyone with the F-150.

ARCC pays a strong dividend, and I think they keep that up via leveraging interest rates in a possible increasing environment.

I’m down about 7k the last couple days, holding steady and buying more, just wishing I had more money.

The deals will only get better Bobmc.

I’d still say buying here is a coin toss wether you’re happy in the near term.

SP 2800 is where the winners show themselves.

Going to be locking in some nice div yields for Xmas.

June lows are being tested. Shitty IPOs are getting slaughtered.

Good to see things coming back to reality. I'll be aggressively increasing my automated DCA if VTI breaks under $180.

https://images.thestar.com/iH4xqcvaH...-0_Gallery.jpg

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Originally Posted by Kevo

June lows are being tested. Shitty IPOs are getting slaughtered.

Good to see things coming back to reality. I'll be aggressively increasing my automated DCA if VTI breaks under $180.

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I am holding out for $160. Just hoping the next 10 years isn't a repeat of the 70's.

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Originally Posted by liv2ski

I am holding out for $160. Just hoping the next 10 years isn't a repeat of the 70's.

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A repeat is certainly a possibility.. I started reading a new economics history book.. The authors contention is that the period from 1870 to 2010 was reality changing .. For good and for bad... Slouching towards utopia... is the title.. The author also has a good substack... Not stock or bond market specific.. But quite good and very readable!

I don’t always agree with Jeremy Siegel but when I do….

They know Nothing 2.0

Calling it poor monetary policy is an understatement, Says Prof. Jeremy Siegel on Fed hikes

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/09/2...pyToPasteboard


Part 2

https://twitter.com/CNBCOvertime/sta...E17Y9jiMOoFeTg

Amazing day for treasuries. 2 yr 4 .2%

Complete collapse in just a few months.

Amazing to watch.

All I know is that the ocean shipping industry went from container freight rates of $3k per 40' cntr precovid to $20k in peak COVID back down to about $4k this month. No one is shipping anything. Ships are being pulled out of service. Last time I saw this occurrence was in October of 2007....

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Originally Posted by Toadman

All I know is that the ocean shipping industry went from container freight rates of $3k per 40' cntr precovid to $20k in peak COVID back down to about $4k this month. No one is shipping anything. Ships are being pulled out of service. Last time I saw this occurrence was in October of 2007....

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That's interesting.

Some of you will be paying for your learningz....

You also have to remember the time "lost" recovering from these market moves. If you get out at the top and in at the bottom you make more money than the schmuck that was stuck in HODL. Not saying you need to time the market but you should absolutely pay attention to the sectors and their relative performance.

Oh and we are at those crucial levels that when lost will mean much more pain ahead. Like 30%+ in the QQQ's.

Still calling for a low in 1st half 2023! Fingers crossed for an election season Santa Clause rally but it will have no legs beyond AllHallowseve.

Stay away from Bonds even if they bounce here.

Oh and the world still does not think WW3 is on the table and supply chains will be just roses. Wake Up! These forecasts are garbage. Rates will be higher next October and so will inflation, food scarcity will continue to be an issue for the less fortunate, and we have no energy solutions beyond fossil fuels and glowing shit.

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Originally Posted by Toadman

All I know is that the ocean shipping industry went from container freight rates of $3k per 40' cntr precovid to $20k in peak COVID back down to about $4k this month. No one is shipping anything. Ships are being pulled out of service. Last time I saw this occurrence was in October of 2007....

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Baltic index is pretty crazy.

We fucked ourselves. That’s all I can say about the forthcoming economic collapse and depression. 20 yrs of terrible monetary policy.

I have to imagine the bottom in treasuries has to really be something on a scale I’ve never seen in my adult life.

I was holding out to buy BOND @ 90, now I think it may see 85.

Cono, so what do you think? The 10 year close to 5% once the FED is done?

Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.

The problem is the Fed is trapped (1) is loosing credibility (2) and cannot fix supply chains (3). At some point the risk premium will jump or the Fed will be trapped like the Japanese and European CB's as the only buyer of the shit paper. You and I will pay a much bigger spread than the Govies too.

The entire bond market has lost 1/5 of its value and the train is only starting to pull away from the station. The bubble is in the bonds folks and shitty unprofitable companies with far-flung multiples based on new make believe metrics and a future that may never come.

Many Pro's have been mega wrong (fiduciary or not). Many Joe's are stuck and more have no idea what they are doing but believe in paying as little as possible for fees and that will be the least of their worries when this is done...Hmm how is that low expense ratio fund doing now? It Does not matter if you are down more than 10%. I keep my fees and my clients low and I watch drawdown more closely than most.

I repeat...YOU CANNOT HOLD A BOND FUND THINKING IT WILL RECOVER HERE UNLESS THEY HAVE LANGUAGE IN THE PROSPECTUS THAT ALLOWS THEM TO BUY BONDS TRADING UNDER PAR.
THOSE ARE MOSTLY HIGH YIELD BONDS (JUNK) and probably should be avoided as well.

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Originally Posted by CarlMega

Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.

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If you own Treasuries with low rates you're either stuck with them and the low yeild or you can sell them at a discount that raises the yield to the present higher yield for the buyer. Idealy, you want to buy Treasuries when yields are high and then sell when the yield is lower so you are paid a premium for the higher yield.
Why anyone would buy low yielding Treasuries is beyond me, hence why the FED may be the buyer of last resort at some point.

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Originally Posted by CarlMega

Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.

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In 20 words or less if my last rant went over your head...
Given that all associated living costs are multiplying, business will take a very long time to return to “normal.”

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Originally Posted by CarlMega

Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.

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yah, I dont really get it, ive been stoked on my bond contributions, and I'm excited ill get to buy some more at a good rate for a bit longer too.