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Krugman, lol. Government shill extroirdinare.
Heh! If it's only the computers I'll count that as a win.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
I was finally able to access my account and not much changed since this morning so I'll put my tin-foil hat back up on the shelf. For now.
:rolleyes2Quote:
Originally Posted by B:llyB:lly
FWIW, Zandi is more pessimistic
Attachment 426330
https://twitter.com/markzandi/status...XFQMwy4Rc0jLHA
30y bond yield is down on the day.
This is the rent issue:
Attachment 426335
https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/sta...XFQMwy4Rc0jLHA
Actual rents have started falling, but ‘owner equivalent rents’ - how much homeowners say they would rent their house for - continue to rise. OER makes up about a quarter of core CPI.
Fed has always been reactionary. They are always looking at historical data to make their decisions. God help us if the Fed tries to be proactive.Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Coulda been a little proactive about long rates. They worked at those pretty hard during the GR, it's not that they lacked the historical data. Or maybe they wanted a RE bubble that locked half of homeowners into their mortgages?Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
I think Greenspan was different. But You sound like you know more than I do about that history though.Quote:
Originally Posted by Toadman
Just yesterday, the headlines and money heads were all exclaiming how it's likely the Fed will pull off the miraculous soft landing. 24 hours and one more data point later and the mood has swung in favor of a hard landing, official recession, and high unemployment. A deer in headlights remains my investing theme for 2022.
In a month or two if the stock market is down it'll be "why the writing was on the wall all year for testing new lows in the stock market".
If the market is up despite rising rates it'll be "international investors are moving billions out of Europe and Asia because the US is the best positioned economy".
Nobody knows WTF is going to happen. There is a scenario where a soft landing happens after supply chains return back to normal. There is a scenario with a mild recession. There is a scenario where Europe doesn't solve their energy crisis and contagion spreads. There is a scenario where continued negative interest rates keep the economy on fire and we chose inflation over unemployment. There is a scenario where China tries to blockade Taiwan. IDFK?
I'm continuing to DCA 2x per month.
I too buy x 2 a month, but it’s very small.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I never paid attention to any type of scenario likeabove, not even earnings for the markets I made options on. I pay attention to pricing. What’s the 90 day straddle worth? And that’s probably the range you’ll end up seeing. Billions of dollars are rarely wrong. But as stubborn as I am, and as I different as I try to be, The trend is your friend, and that trend is clearly down for now so why fight it.
Deflation becoming the risk:
Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk shares her thoughts on inflation, Cathy Wood said. He tweeted Sept. 9: “A major Fed rate hike risks deflation.”
Renowned bond investor Jeff Gundlach, chief executive of money management firm DoubleLine, also agrees with her, Wood said. “Before, he was sure we were in a 1970s-style inflation, but now he has changed his tune.”
Gundlach:
He would buy long-term Treasuries because the deflation risk is much higher today than it has been for the past two years
Deflation?
I like longer term treasuries because I think there’s recession risk/probability out there. The Fed (Powell himself and every governor with a mouthpiece lately) has indicated they aren’t scared to drive rates down and it will hit businesses. They’ve said this multiple times. Yields and income are prettt decent right now and equities (I think anyway) have another shoe to drop. To me, soft landing is a moderate recession.
But deflation? Reminds me of gundlach’s 2018 prediction of 6% 10y UST.
Not a serious deflation but disinflation with negative yoy prints for a while. I read that prices now are at the 2% inflation goal the Fed stated in 2012 had they got what they wanted annualized since then. If they slow the economy too much and wages and prices stall they will be in a worse position.
"In 1996, Fed policymakers privately agreed that their target for inflation was 2 percent, but, at Greenspan’s insistence, they didn’t tell anyone. In 2012, at the urging of then-Chair Ben Bernanke, the Fed formally and publicly announced that they were targeting a 2 percent inflation rate. The Fed’s strategy, approved annually by its policy-making Federal Open Market Committee and tweaked a bit since 2012"
Disinflation will almost certainly happen. Base effects on current prices, it’ll be tough to keep things moving higher next year. But the longer the current “transitory” components to inflation remain, especially negative real wages (check that shit out), the bigger the risk of sustained inflation environment. Wages and rents and their spillover effects.
Also…that 2% inflation stat is kinda funny! Fed has em right where they want em.
The fed is completely and utterly incompetent
Perhaps you should consider starting a rival federal reserve? Competition on the open market should solve the whole problem right?
How are they completely and utterly incompetent?
FedCoinQuote:
Originally Posted by m2711c
TGRCoin FTW!Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Striker
I definitely respect the Fed (given that I can only tentatively grasp their machinations) and while I can't say I'm a big Larry Summers fan, Summers has a fair point here:
"It is highly implausible that inflation will fall to 2 percent without unemployment exceeding 4.5 percent. Yet this is the most pessimistic view among 19 members of the FOMC. Dangerous group think."
Because demand is the only factor in inflation. WTFF
This is it!
My prediction - Guessing JPow goes 75 basis points tomorrow and gives guidance of "possible data driven decision for another 50 or 75 bps raise before the end of the year."
Real interest rates will still be at -5.25% after tomorrow.
Stock market will rally on the news.
Im sticking to Dow 25k within 6 months. But ultimately it will come down to earnings forecasts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
All I know, is having weathered hurricane after hurricane of sell offs in my day, taking out 2 yrs of gains is nothing. Far, far from the capitulation we usually see on a routine 5-7 yrs in mkt. depends on the amount leverage though. True capitulation may be a lot lower in a prolonged sell off. Dow 21-23k
How many of you guys have gone to cash? Is that a wise thing to do if you're a passive investor?
My entire portfolio is hedged with puts.
Most of my stocks have good dividends, so I'll collect them while I'm somewhat protected if the stocks go down.
The idea of that they once in a while i sell dune puts and buy more of the stocks i have, at lower prices. So when the dividends go down, as they will, i might be able to keep the total amount i collect the same, because i will have more shares
We'll see.
Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
No. It is not.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackstraw
I'm putting everything I can spare into the stock market right now. tough to watch it drop week over week but I'm not retiring for ~15 years.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackstraw
One thing I started doing differently though is i have a small portion of my paycheck that buys bonds. I'm realizing when this happens again my funds aren't allocated very well if I am close to retirement or retired, so starting to build up that bucket.
I’m being a bit aggressive myself today in regards to buying more of my dividend stocks.Quote:
Originally Posted by pogs4ever
REITs have have been pretty hammered lately. I have a small part of my portfolio with Vangaurds offering. Helps me sleep better for some reason.. Also nice to have it if I want some money to jump into the market with. Or at least in theory. Doesn't work so well when rates are skyrocketing!Quote:
Originally Posted by pogs4ever
VGSLX which has a 10 year return of 7.51% but ytd down a whopping 18.83.
I won't talk about a tiny bit of money I have in a GNMA except to say it has stayed tiny.
Maybe a buying opportunity for someone looking to diversify away from the market a bit BUT with much more short term downside risk for sure as rates rise and real estate demand softens.
If you are going to cash to time the market, you aren't a passive investor fwiw. I think inflation favors staying long, just have to ignore the shirt term bruisers.
I dunno. Times like these are fucked. Unless you want get into complex investments (I refuse) the math seems to suck for everything.
Depends on what you consider complex... But even now there are certain sectors that are doing well.. But.. Those sectors are not what I consider good investments for passive investors.. I am much more passive now than in the past.. Sometimes its emotionally difficult to think of an idea..then not invest.. Then watch that idea work well while my passive investments decline in value....but the discipline of doing nothing is usually less stressful day to day... I expect more increased volatility ahead....Quote:
Originally Posted by uglymoney
To me complex is something I can understand but forget how it works within a couple days. For people smarter than me this will be different for sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Sectors doing well now are priced higher, so that negates the advantage of buying them right now.
You speak much truth though, and more or less describe my investment evolution as well
November 2021 would have been a great time to go to cash for anyone with a crystal ball.
I kinda hope Cono Este is correct. For anyone not retiring in the immediate future another 25% drop would be great so long as you can keep your job and keep contributing.
Market up on the news that JPow is sticking with 75 basis points. Real interest rate is -5.25%. Wish I had the conviction to buy calls today.
Sure seems like we're choosing to let inflation run rampant. The fed is not being aggressive.
I'm meeting with a financial advisor for the first time Friday. It will be interesting to hear what they have to say.
You should research expense ratios and load fees to understand what you're getting into before meeting with a "financial advisor". That industry is rampant with seedy bullshit.Quote:
Originally Posted by jackstraw
Make sure to stay away from whole life insurance as well.
Met with our financial advisor this morning. Good to have one. But definitely ask how they are paid.
Always make sure your financial person is a fiduciary.
https://www.investopedia.com/updates...iduciary-rule/
Yes, thank you all. They are a fiduciary and I guess they're kind of the local gurus and have a selective client base. Dartmouth folks, so not idiots. That is a good and potentially bad thing. Idk. I've always been skeptical of these guys based on absolutely nothing, so here I go. Give it a shot and see.
Crazy up and down moves today. Huge volatility.
Re: financial advisors. Flat fee fiduciary is the absolute gold standard if you can find it.
Lots of people claim to be fiduciaries without being willing to sign a fiduciary contract. My parents were swindled by a Raymond James CFP who had them in high expense ratio bullshit and had a 50 basis point per year "advising fee" on top of the high expense ratios.
I found them a flat fee fiduciary CFP/CFA/RICP Stanford MBA and their total yearly fees inclusive of expense rarios are about 1/3 of what my parents were paying to the RJ hack.
My parents are saving tens of thousands per year and their fiduciary is incredibly valuable. He and his team earn every penny of their flat fee ensuring everything is tax advantaged, doing asset allocation and setting up a detailed budget for retirement income.
It's not rocket science but my parents need a go to "person" so it's worth paying for them.
RJ hack told my parents she was a fiduciary but wouldn't sign paperwork saying so. I wanted to strangle her.