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Yeah, it’s not a very descriptive term. Basically it’s saying that the underlying fundamentals of the economy are leaning towards low-growth (lots of workers approaching retirement, not many new workers approaching employment age, low productivity growth), so low interest rates are required to maintain full employment by encouraging investment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Summer
https://time.com/4269733/secular-sta...larry-summers/
Changing time frames in a trade is common. That way you’re never wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
yah, i've been adding to buying my Roth IRA (if market falls after CPI data) or selling some of my RSU's (after random optimism waves after cpi data). emotionally feels good, I think its kind of a wash in the long term, but helps keep my nerves down right now.
Amateur or expert, things are nutty.
FWIW, I'm 50% cash, 40% equities, 10% hedges. Right now, the cash is losing value, the equities are down, and the hedges are killing it. Didn't have, and never will have, the balls to put more than 10% in that box. I would rather retire modestly (and stay married) then have enough to buy a Tesla Roadster.
I think a new wave of uncontrolled Covid could pile onto this already larger mess. All out of bullets.
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Isnt the current concern inflation? Wouldn’t more Covid be deflationary?Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Recession.Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
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But wouldn’t that free up some bullets?Quote:
Originally Posted by Cono Este
Let's just print a few more trillion and give it to everyone. It'll be great..
Well, not great exactly, but better than not doing anything and living with unemployment that would cause.Quote:
Originally Posted by byates1
What would you suggest the proper response would be to another major wave of Covid? (Or really anything that’s leading to recession.)
What is up with all these days that open down in a big way and then come back to even or up by close? It seems to happen again and again.
We’re bouncing off previous lows.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
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People are buying the dip? Or is it the dead cat?Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
I'm trying to avoid changing rationalizations on emotional justifications so I don't fall into traps...Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
I could still be wrong or very wrong. If I buy SPY on the theory that it will be up several percent at some point in a few days planning to sell it on that, that's nice but risky if that is the sole bet. It is less risky if I am also of the belief it will be up in a few months and also up in 1-2 years. But I could be wrong on any or multiples of those bets.
It seems like a good way to manage risk?
Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
Not really. So SPY goes up a few percent in short frame and you sell it. But it continues straight up on what could have been a long term time frame. It’s apples and oranges.
Yes that makes sense. 90% of my equities/funds are long term bets. So I'm playing with a small portion for short term.
I guess I should have asked: seems like a good way to manage risk in short term plays?
Two month low in the 10y note yield.
Four month low close on gasoline
In China they drive tanks to the banks.
The way I see it, if we were to experience a total market bloodbath, that will be the least of our worries.
10y back to early April yield so the rate hikes are mostly front end loaded now. If the Fed does 75 next week with a hawkish outlook look for curve inversion to accelerate.
10/2 spread -28bp. Fresh low
2y rate down 20bp in less than 24 hours. 10y at 2.66%. Curve flattening toward the short end.
2 quarters of negative GDP growth. QT starting in September. Inflation still running hot. FFR was just raised again.
Market goes up because people think that fed will roll over and lower interest rates. It is hard to imagine the federal reserve having the political will to actually allow the economy to reset.
fun to gamble on the bottom!
I think the chips act is a good piece of legislation as well.
Gaps filled on Sp500 cash
Still lots of fiat currency sloshing around that needs to be sopped up. Housing market is in the toilet, that's about it. Fed most likely has at least one more rate increase. Total joke to be talking about walking back rate hikes yet. Need the economy to take a minor dump. -,2% is not even a start. It's a statistical error.
In March the 10y was @2.50 and the SP500 was 4600. 10y @2.68 now with SP500 4050. The biggest difference now is High Yield rates.
I’m way long High Yield at a very small loss now
QT started in June at $45B. In September, it steps up to $95B per month.
Two interesting reads regarding the mkt's response to the Fed:
https://fedguy.com/the-money-still-flows/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...?sref=5frvVJaF
Lotta doom and gloom a month or so ago. I was buying when the doom and gloom were proclaimed, turned out fairly well so far. Wish I’d have bought more AMZN, shit was on a tear after hours today after earnings. I’m up 22.4% on my 8 shares bought June 10th. AAPL up lately, and GOOGL ticking upwards as well. Tech and growth seem to be surging, ACCD and CMPS are both up off their lows, I’m glad I added to my positions on the lows.
Picked up 10 shares of ARCC today at $19.50, don’t expect much growth but they yield over 8%. Seems a good play in a rising rate environment.
XOM reporting tomorrow, I’m guessing they knock it out of the park. If so, I may sell a call on Monday and try to work some money or take profits if assigned.
It's inconceivable to me that Google won't be $200 a share at some point. You're going to double your money on that bet, within 5 years or probably sooner.
And to quote Sargeant Schultz, "I know nothing!"
Dup….
Fresh four month low in the 10y rate. Especially positive on a Friday and eom if it closes near the low.
XOM hitting a grand slam.Quote:
Originally Posted by BobMc
Front month gasoline $2.97. Almost a 5 month low.
10y note 2.59%. Mortgage rates back under 5% soon.
Let the good times roll!
The huge drop in ISM prices paid -- from 78.5 in June to 60.0 in July -- is 18.5 points, the largest since May/June of 2010 where the difference was 22.1 points.
Short TSM
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HKD seems to have become the "new Gamestop" amongst the YOLO crowd. Came out at a couple bucks on July and has soared to a $300B market cap on $25M in revenues. LOL
Lending Club is paying 2.07% on my high yield savings account now. Considering I've moved all my kids' college money into that account, it's a pretty good chunk of change.