Read an article that data is now more valuable than oil. I blame Elon Musk.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
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Read an article that data is now more valuable than oil. I blame Elon Musk.Quote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Google is more than tech + data collection. From a revenue standpoint, they're an advertising company.
Crude back to early Feb price. Gasoline has a way go; anther .40c or so.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/202...9a2a43fae0.jpgQuote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
They told me there would be no maths. :mad:Quote:
Originally Posted by jackstraw
Interesting ploy . . .
"The US Bureau of Labor Statistics was forced to publicly discredit a fake inflation data report that circulated on Tuesday, just one day before the scheduled release.
The document, which sought to mirror the formatting of the monthly consumer price index report, claimed that annual inflation in June reached 10.2 per cent, much higher than economists’ forecasts of an 8.8 per cent jump compared to the same time last year."
8:30 am on Wed., the actual report is released . . . . It shouldn't matter, the Fed is likely going to raise 75 bps, but I guess the big debate is over what it does in 2023 and I'm not persuaded markets can predict/price that.
Yeah, tomorrow’s opener will be interesting with the news just before. I’m almost regretting using the last of my current free cash on GOOGL, I wouldn’t mind having cash to sell a put on something tomorrow morning.
Does anyone think that current market behavior is at all influenced by perceived future market results based on a Trump run for POTUS?
Well, the market does predict/price that, but how accurate they’ll be is another question:Quote:
Originally Posted by dschane
Attachment 421378
https://www.ice.com/iba/usd-inflation-indexes
Inflation over the next 12 months expected to be 3.81%. The five years after that averaging 2.35%. So clearly the market is expecting inflation to be under control going forward.
9.1%
Still 5.9% excluding food and energy too. Buckle up!Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
Dang putin keeps raising those prices!Quote:
Originally Posted by JimmyCarter
It's OK. I'm sure my employer will give me a compensatory raise... any day now...
For the markets, I assume the institutions weren't expecting a drastic improvement and we still have 12mo core dropping 0.1% and the fuel/food included was only 0.3% higher than predicted while the Fed said they don't want to kill the markets with interest as they control inflation...
... so slight panic followed by rally is what my magic 8 balls says.
If your 8 ball is correct you should start your own finance showQuote:
Originally Posted by summit
It's a magic 8 ball, so my bet is quite smallQuote:
Originally Posted by up an down
Real interest rates are -7.6% and the Fed is sitting around wondering why it's accelerating. Absolutely unbelievable.
10y note flat and still below 3%. Another lower high.
Tightening into a slowdown is tough enough. Don’t want to hit a wall like a Tesla on Autopilot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
morepain for the poor never gets old hereQuote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
You still sticking to your thesis that low wage workers are better off with negative interest rates and accelerating inflation while real wages lose ground every month?Quote:
Originally Posted by dunfree
yes, yes I am rich bitch. Because a job with negative rates is fucking better than no job at all. Even a dipshit like you should be able to understand. Now fuck off to your airplane.Quote:
Originally Posted by Kevo
10y note big reversal lower. 2.89% now. 2/10 at -20
1% reversal in the USD. That’s big if it continues.
HYG is well off it’s low made a month ago.
Core problem:
GOLDMAN: “Shelter categories surprisingly accelerated further .. The 36-year-high rent reading poses upside risk to the path of the funds rate in the second half of the year, as shelter is one of the largest and most persistent inflation categories.”
BTW none of the Models can factor in the WAR that is incoming.
The only thing that can go lower than the market is the Old Man's approval rating.
Fed is trapped and Government is run by dumb losers that could never hold a real job.
Dead Cats bounce too but this pain train is just getting started.
Inflation will still be higher as will the Dollar next year.
Note that the CPI data doesn’t (yet) capture the recent moves in rents that private tracking does:Quote:
Originally Posted by 4matic
Attachment 421401
Also note that todays report doesn’t capture the decline in energy costs over the past month, and energy made up about a third of todays number. Next month energy will be bringing the headline number down.
Market currently pricing in two 0.75 increases from the Fed.
I won my little bet and made $750Quote:
Originally Posted by summit
was planning to buy the dip after the cpi data, but turns out everyone else did the same. bought some stuff online instead lol, im doing my part.
6 week low on the 30y treasury yield
15y high in the Canada 1yr bond. 3.36%
I'm half expecting a 1.0 increase followed by a .75 or .5Quote:
Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong
Will be interesting to see what happens to rental delinquencies/mortgage defaults in the next few quarters
Waiting for the next elevator down. Still holding target at 24k in dow.
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1% would be interesting.
I keep breaking my rule not to buy individual stocks this year...picked up some TELL @$3 after reading a NYT article.
Would be nice if S&P would hit some new lows.
30yr 3.07
1yr 3.21
If the fed keeps raising the rates, the federal budget deficit will balloon.
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I’m not a bond guy, but with rates going up, the debt already out there is getting crushed on paper.Quote:
Originally Posted by rod9301
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For perspective:Quote:
Originally Posted by rod9301
Attachment 421450
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...just-the-start
Not great, but not catastrophic.
Also, any reason to expect rates to stay elevated for a long time? Summer’s ‘secular stagnation’ problem hasn’t disappeared, right?
Deja vu? . . . higher than expected CPI on a Wednesday morning results in glum start to the day, but by mid-day, there's a wave of optimism that the pundits explain as if it's explainable, and then that's followed up with a wicked hangover on the Thursday.
Personally, I'm a fucking deer in headlights. I can regret that later. Or not.
Yes this exact pattern is what I banked on. Now I expect volatility with at small rally to sell into before the interest announcement. If that happens I'll sell some. If it doesn't, it will be fine long term.Quote:
Originally Posted by dschane
I am such an amateur at this, but my idea is if I'm making a short term bet, only commit to things I also think are a good bet medium/long term so if I'm wrong in the short term, everything works out. I only occasionally violate that rule. This isn't the day-trading warrior way, but it is safer for an amateur like me.Quote:
Personally, I'm a fucking deer in headlights. I can regret that later. Or not.
So if you are deployed for mid/long term, you'll be fine if you take no action to immediate news.