Is the stock market going to tank?

Most of bond QT for now is just roll off. Rather than raise rates more than anticipated Fed can just actively increase QT to sell off bond balance sheet which would further tighten credit in longer duration

Japan is buying its own bonds as they are still pursuing QE. It will be a good time to ski Japanese powder this winter with the yen cratering; if they let you in.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by liv2ski

if you want to sell.

---

Which indicates lack of discipline when it comes to investing rule #1:

Define your timeframe

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by liv2ski

Not a fan of bonds in an increasing rate environment. Say you buy $10k worth at a 3% yield, that is $300 yield. Rates go to 4%, now your $10k investment is worth $7,500 X 4% = $300 if you want to sell. Only buy bonds if your certain rates are going down so the inverse is true.

---

What has to happen with inflation for 10y to go to 4%? We just hit 8.3, more than expected...and the 10y barely moved and has been treading water for 2 months.

What happens to your 10y bond paying 3% if rates go to 2%? What happens to your 10k if you put it in stocks and the market loses another...10%? 20%?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

What has to happen with inflation for 10y to go to 4%? We just hit 8.3, more than expected...and the 10y barely moved and has been treading water for 2 months.

What happens to your 10y bond paying 3% if rates go to 2%? What happens to your 10k if you put it in stocks and the market loses another...10%? 20%?

---

Yeah, anything can happen in the short term. Nasdaq 8000 is easy target on the chart. As you know bonds return all your money at maturity unlike stocks. That’s why 3% was attractive compared to recent history.

If rates continue substantially higher we’re looking at a serious recession.

I’d separate the inflation piece and rates piece. High inflation is already priced in, with the Fed coming in with 50/50/50

I think the recession comes regardless, even if inflation starts to abate (or if the Fed has to throw down the hammer post-sept mtg)

I agree ..recession odds are high I think.. Looks like a rampaging bear downturn to start the week.

A minor recession is ok. Even good but if the rates market breaks its 2008/1980 all over again.

I’ve been “doing my own research” all weekend. Had a few orders set to re-allocate the cash from my XOM shares. Looking at futures I cancelled them all and will see what happens tomorrow morning. I’m thinking of making some buys mid morning, I may even buy XOM back if it goes much under $98. (Via a put of course.)

I never thought Powell was up to the task. We’ll see this week if he can get some credibility back

2/10 spread down to 2bp. It went to -5 on April 1.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Yeah, anything can happen in the short term. Nasdaq 8000 is easy target on the chart. As you know bonds return all your money at maturity unlike stocks. That’s why 3% was attractive compared to recent history.

If rates continue substantially higher we’re looking at a serious recession.

---

In my lifetime bull cycles have always lasted around 8 yrs...this one is overdue by 6 yrs. Hold on to your hats.

While interesting and all that is a pretty small sample size to hang your hat upon.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

In my lifetime bull cycles have always lasted around 8 yrs...this one is overdue by 6 yrs. Hold on to your hats.

---

So tell us Swami, were do you see the S&P bottoming out? Anywhere under 3000 and I will start nibbling back in.

You see the smart people leading us actually are not smart. They are DUMB because they have spent their lives in ivory towers and not on the street working hard. We will now pay for their lack of real experience.

Energy and Food will be driving this inferno of Social Upheaval. The Street still is in shock when it comes to rates because the Fed always comes to the rescue and people believe in fairy tales with happy endings. This one ends bad and bonds will not work until rates are higher than inflation.

You will need an asset that can transition through inflation not one that returns your principal but at a fraction of the purchasing power.

The game changed along the way but some of you still believe in Getting on the ARK.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NakedShorts

You see the smart people leading us actually are not smart. They are DUMB because they have spent their lives in ivory towers and not on the street working hard. We will now pay for their lack of real experience.

Energy and Food will be driving this inferno of Social Upheaval. The Street still is in shock when it comes to rates because the Fed always comes to the rescue and people believe in fairy tales with happy endings. This one ends bad and bonds will not work until rates are higher than inflation.

You will need an asset that can transition through inflation not one that returns your principal but at a fraction of the purchasing power.

The game changed along the way but some of you still believe in Getting on the ARK.

---

pretty much

and yeah the people in charge of politics and corporations are so disconnected from reality thats major issue

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Bunion 2020

While interesting and all that is a pretty small sample size to hang your hat upon.

---

That is true....I am not 70 like a lot of you.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NakedShorts

You see the smart people leading us actually are not smart. They are DUMB because they have spent their lives in ivory towers and not on the street working hard. We will now pay for their lack of real experience.

Energy and Food will be driving this inferno of Social Upheaval. The Street still is in shock when it comes to rates because the Fed always comes to the rescue and people believe in fairy tales with happy endings. This one ends bad and bonds will not work until rates are higher than inflation.

You will need an asset that can transition through inflation not one that returns your principal but at a fraction of the purchasing power.

The game changed along the way but some of you still believe in Getting on the ARK.

---

Well, WS has been bailed time and time again. They play by a different set of rules than Main Street. The Ivory Tower folks aren't dumb. They know exactly what they are doing. And normally when the shit hits the fan, the folks getting kicked to the curb are the little people. And yes, we the little people have paid, and will continue to pay the price for those at the top with the experience to game the system.

I'm not talking about our NOBLE business leaders I'm referring to our fearless leaders in DC. They are dumber than dumb!

Re-posted for posterity....

NASDAQ and Shitcoins leading us lower....

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by NakedShorts

Hope is a drug and very powerful one, Hopium can blind you from the truth if you have to much in you.


Recession / Stagflation / Economy Not Working As Planned - Whatever you want to call it is a certainty and very easily forecasted.

Come back to this post circa May 2023 where I say the "market bottoms in the first Quarter 2023 (April)." Do not expect them to bottom the same day but within days or a few weeks.

Dow 29600 and then 25,000 - 26,000
NASDAQ 10800 then 7800 then 7200
S&P 500 3200 then 2800 then 2500
Sh*tCoin 28600 then 17600 then 10400 then 9800 (3rd Quarter Low this Year)
Oil $250+/ barrel by end of 2023

Trade Accordingly. If we loose one level we get support at the next. It is helpful to know where those painful stops actually are though. Markets never move in straight lines.

And yields will need to be higher than inflation before Bonds will work as hoped for any substantial holding period. If inflation remains persistent, as I am laying out, bonds return of capital feature will become decimated by said inflation.

Rising interest rates help unload ships faster? Do farmers grow more wheat with higher rates? Oil companies find more oil with higher rates? The FED does not have the tool kit to fight these problems and Government Polytricksters are not helping because they are dumb.

We have systematic shortages developing in FOOD. That leads to Civil Unrest 100% of the time. Sri Lanka?

Buy some non perishable food you will thank me later.

---

Nasdaq back to pre pandemic high.

Not one commodity higher on my summary list

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Nasdaq back to pre pandemic high.

---

:confused:

Wasn't the pre-pandemic high around 9730?

Most selloffs end in some form of capitulation, due to leverage, margins calls etc..and i dont see how this won't be any different. In my opinion, that's about 20% lower. and once the earning revisions come in, recessionary numbers etc..who knows?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

Not one commodity higher on my summary list

---

Yeah. Even grain futures turned lower... but heat wave in EU and US have a good chance to cause grains to do a 180 and turn back higher

Breakevens from 2y out to 30 all down.

That means inflation expectations all lower.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Brock Landers

Breakevens from 2y out to 30 all down.

That means inflation expectations all lower.

---

Corporate America milked the consumer dry. Consumer now living off of savings and racking up debt.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Toadman

Corporate America milked the consumer dry. Consumer now living off of savings and racking up debt.

---

Savings balances still high so the milked consumer should be ok for a bit

What is “corporate America” anyway? Capitalism?

What's the marker for putting sideline money into indexes?

A price mark? An event? An intersection?

Curious how ppl with cash on the sides & a belief that it's overvalued now would choose their opportunity for eventual long holding. (vs. cost avging)

Monthly sep ira went into my first amzn shares today. Bought a little more MO too.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CarlMega

What's the marker for putting sideline money into indexes?

A price mark? An event? An intersection?

Curious how ppl with cash on the sides & a belief that it's overvalued now would choose their opportunity for eventual long holding. (vs. cost avging)

---

Whatever works. Down 20% typically works out eventually.

Thanks Brock and 4matic for your thoughts on bonds. Definitely an interesting subject matter at the moment.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Kevo

Thanks Brock and 4matic for your thoughts on bonds. Definitely an interesting subject matter at the moment.

---

We’re dead wrong as of today but thanks!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by CarlMega

What's the marker for putting sideline money into indexes?

A price mark? An event? An intersection?

Curious how ppl with cash on the sides & a belief that it's overvalued now would choose their opportunity for eventual long holding. (vs. cost avging)

---

Hold your nose and throw the money in....fast forward 3-5yrs and look back and laugh one way or another.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

Hold your nose and throw the money in....fast forward 3-5yrs and look back and laugh one way or another.

---

I wish I could learn to wait, bloodbath.

Close on new low today and it’s going to be a rough week.



Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by 4matic

We’re dead wrong as of today but thanks!

---

ha, just a single data point. I too appreciate your guys' thoughts/input. I have gleaned ideas and read good articles from this board.

This will settle down in a week. All the money managers will be heading to the Hamptons and Nantucket next week for the summer. HS graduations are this week, then off to the beach.

But, if this keeps up much longer than that maybe the Fed won't need to raise rates. So, we have that.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

That is true....I am not 70 like a lot of you.

---

FWIW

Quote:

---

There have been 26 bear markets since 1929, but only 15 recessions during that time. Bear markets often go hand in hand with a slowing economy, but a declining market doesn't necessarily mean a recession is looming.

---

2/10 is inverted right now

So this is interesting. There is a high probability that the fed raises rates 75 bps next Tuesday. Does the market react favorably thinking the Fed has this under control, or we are good and f****ed and the damage is done and we continue to sell off?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

Does the market react favorably thinking the Fed has this under control, or we are good and f****ed and the damage is done and we continue to sell off?

---

Yes